I’m going to start by looking at the game from a slightly different angle. It’s all very well for the media to chuck ridiculous numbers around, but it’s actually quite interesting to see exactly what the winners can expect next season. Six of the last ten playoff winners were relegated immediately, with their average finishing position being 16^th. In that time frame, only West Ham (9^th, 2006) finished in the top half of the Premier League.

The fate of the losing team is far simpler. I’ll be returning to my own set of well used phrases in the autumn when I start using the term ‘playoff hangover’ to describe Brighton, Leicester and Monday’s losers when they’ve lost to Yeovil or Bournemouth instead of Chelsea and Manchester United. Only six clubs in the last 20 seasons lost the playoff final and were promoted to the Premier League at the end of the following season and another three clubs reached the playoffs but lost in the third round. The good news for the playoff losers: only once in the last 20 seasons has the playoff runner up been relegated (Leeds in 2006)

Watford’s current team isn’t as good as the sides that won promotion in 1999 and 2006, both of which spent one season at the top level before finishing in last place. The current Crystal Palace side is roughly around the same level as the teams that were promoted via the playoffs in 1997 and 2004, but once again, both those squads were relegated after one season.

So who will join Cardiff and Hull in having to buy a new heat transfer machine for replica shirts next season? It’ll have to be another different angle here, as it’s an away game for both teams. As I mentioned in the semi final previews, neither of these teams have exactly been in form recently. Palace’s 2-0 win at the Amex a couple of weeks ago was only their second win in their last ten away games and although they’ve been better defensively of late, the last time the Eagles won consecutive away games was around the time the clocks went back. Watford have managed to win four of their last ten games away from Vicarage Road, but they lost five of the other six – it’s either boom or bust for the Hornets.

From a wider perspective, the Championship playoff final is normally a straightforward game. Sixteen of the last 20 games were settled in normal time and of the four that went into extra time, only half were decided by penalties – the last time that happened was in 2002, when Birmingham beat Norwich at the Millennium Stadium.

In the context of third v fifth finals, the stats are bit cloudier. There have been six games that fit the bill in the last two and the higher placed club has won three of the last five, but the interesting angle here is that these games usually feature a few goals. Here’s the rundown:

1996: Leicester 2-1 Crystal Palace (AET)

2003: Wolves 3-0 Sheffield United

2006: Watford 3-0 Leeds

2009: Burnley 1-0 Sheffield United

2011: Swansea 4-2 Reading

2012: West Ham 2-1 Blackpool

What’s interesting about that is that eight of these clubs are currently still in the Championship – only Swansea and West Ham are still in the Premier League and both the playoff finalists from a decade ago will be playing in League One in August.

Verdict: I’m expecting a cagey half an hour to begin with, but in the fifteen minutes before half time in their last ten away games, Watford have scored three times as many goals as Palace have – this is basically Troy Deeney time. Palace are vulnerable during this period – they’ve conceded five goals in that time frame, including two at Brighton and three at Ipswich. It’s also worth mentioning that in their last ten away games, Palace have only scored twice in the first half, whilst Watford scored seven times.

The fun should start after an hour – this is where Palace could make a breakthrough as Watford have defensive frailties. The Hornets conceded goals at Bristol City and Peterborough in this period, which doesn’t exactly bode well and The Eagles scored twice as many goals in the second half of their most recent away games as they did in the first period.

There’s been a goal in six of Watford’s last ten away games in the last quarter of an hour, but more worryingly for Palace this is another period where they’ve conceded goals. I’m expecting the decisive goal to come at this point in the game.

Verdict: Overall, it’s hard to separate these clubs, but one possibly decisive angle is that Watford were one of the most improved teams away from home last season. The Hornets won twice as many games as Crystal Palace did and their goal difference was the best in the Championship. To put Palace’s away form into some perspective, they averaged less than one goal on the road and Peterborough – who were relegated – had a better goal difference on the road. If this holds true on Monday, it’s possible that this game could a rout and Watford will have earned themselves a lot of money and at least one season in the Premier League.

I’ll be back early next week with some thoughts on the final, but my wife’s younger sister is getting married this weekend. Congratulations to both of them, but in a spectacularly poor show of timing, I’m not going to be able to watch the Champions League final and I’m also not expecting to see much – if any – of the last game of the season in the nPower Championship…

24 clubs have played 46 regular season games and four teams have played three playoff games, yet two of the biggest outcomes at the top of the table have been settled when one team scores immediately after their opponents have missed a penalty. That happened at Hull on the last day of the season and it happened again at Vicarage Road yesterday.

At the end of the month  Watford will be attempting to emulate West Ham and Swansea, who were both promoted via the playoffs after finishing in third place at the end of the last two seasons. Third placed teams have won half of the last ten finals and have only been beaten in the semi finals on three occasions since 2002/2003, but the Hornets need to be aware of the following fact:

Third placed teams have a much better record in playoff finals against fourth placed teams than they do against fifth placed teams.

Since 2002/2003, the club that has finished in third place has won four of the five finals in which they’ve played the fourth placed team, but only half of the six finals when they’ve played the fifth placed team.

Or to put it another way, it might be better to face Brighton at Wembley rather than Crystal Palace - which leads me nicely on to…

Brighton v Crystal Palace (Sky Sports 1, 7:45pm)

The evening of Saturday 15th December 2012. Brighton had played out a goalless draw at the Amex Stadium with Nottingham Forest and occupied eighth place, one point behind Watford. Crystal Palace were in second place – two points behind Cardiff City – after failing to protect a two goal lead and dropping two points at Birmingham City.

From that point on, Brighton’s home record and Palace’s away form have been going in remarkably different directions. Palace have won once away from home since then (at Derby in March) and have failed to score in seven of their last ten road trips. On the other hand, although Brighton lost at home to Watford at the end of December, the Seagulls have not lost a home game since and have kept clean sheets in half of their last ten games in front of their own fans.

Quite frankly, this is beginning to look as if this game will go two ways. Either Palace will manage a shock win or Brighton will qualify for Wembley with ease, but let’s not get too carried away with the latter outcome. In the past ten seasons, only two of the first legs between the fifth and fourth placed clubs have ended in draws and the lower placed team won both second legs. Unfortunately for Preston (2006) and Cardiff (2011), they both went on to lose in the final.

In terms of recent head to head form in Sussex, Brighton have the advantage. Although the 3-0 victory  in March was the first time the Seagulls had beaten the Eagles since Christmas 1988, Brighton have won seven of the last ten league meetings.

I discussed Brighton’s dangermen in the previous post, but Kazenga Lua-Lua needs to be added to the list of goal threats. He’s scored three times in as many games at the Amex.

As for Palace…well, let’s put it this way. Glenn Murray hasn’t scored an away goal in the Championship this year and only four of his team mates have managed to score away from Selhurst Park since mid-January.

Verdict: the intense rivalry between these two goes back to the late 1970s when Brighton were perceived to be on the receiving end of some dodgy refereeing in an FA Cup replay – which the Sussex club lost. In 1979, Brighton almost won the old second division title – but Palace won their last game of the season to snatch it away. It would be seen in some quarters as fitting revenge for Brighton to beat Palace in the playoffs and I think that’s the way this game will go.

I’ll be back with an update as soon as possible after the game finishes, but it’s my wife’s birthday today so it may not be immediately

UPDATE: the Curse of Fourth struck again last night as Palace won 2-0 at the Amex. Crystal Palace will face Watford in the playoff final at Wembley on Bank Holiday Monday. Full preview to follow next week.

However, with half of the last ten finals being won by the team that finished in third place, Watford appear to be in the driving seat this season. The Hornets also have the best head to head record against the other three participants this season, but the playoffs are a different kettle of fish altogether.

This season’s possible victims of The Curse Of Fourth are Brighton, but rather than boring you with the details, read about that particular phenomenon here.

LEICESTER v WATFORD (tomorrow, 7:45pm Sky Sports 1)

Leicester: playoff winners in 1994 and 1996, runners up 1992, 1993. Last appearance: 2010 (beaten semi finalists)

The hosts have won only four of their last ten and just one of their last six at the King Power Stadium: a 3-2 win over Bolton last month. This season the Foxes have beaten Hull and Brighton at home, but lost to Palace, Watford and Cardiff at home.

Watford: playoff winners in 1999 and 2006. Beaten semi finalists in 1989 and 2008.

Tomorrow night’s visitors have have won five of their last ten road trips, but only two of their last six and they’ve not won consecutive away games since February. Watford won four of their five away games against the clubs that finished in the top six this season.

Head to head at Leicester: Watford’s recent 2-1 win over Leicester was only their second victory in their last ten league games there.

Troy Deeney’s red card against Leeds last Saturday means he’ll miss this game, but Watford have shown this season that they aren’t dependent on one man for goals. Nathaniel Chalobah, Matej Vydra, Ikechi Anya and Almen Abdi are all capable of finding the net. The Hornets scored the most away goals in the Championship this season and nobody won more away games.

On the other hand, Leicester have got problems in front of goal. David Nugent hasn’t scored in front of his own fans since the end of January and although Jeffrey Schlupp, Chris Wood and Harry Kane have picked up the slack, none of them have scored more than three goals at home since the start of the year. Although the Foxes were reasonably tight at home this season, six teams – including Burnley and Derby – had better defensive home records than they did and only three teams in the top half of the table lost more home games than Leicester.

Verdict: neither team come into this game with much recent form, but this is a game that Watford don’t need to win. The sixth placed team has only beaten the third placed team in the first leg twice in the last ten seasons and both of those sides (Palace in 2004 and Blackpool three years ago) both went on to win the final.

CRYSTAL PALACE v BRIGHTON (Friday, 7:45pm Sky Sports 1)

Crystal Palace: winners in 1989, 1997 and 2004, beaten finalists in 1996, beaten semi finalists in 2006 and 2008

One home defeat in the last twenty games at Selhurst Park, which could mean two things: it either shows how good the Eagles are at home or that another one is due. However, Palace have only won two of their last six games since the start of March and haven’t beaten a top six side in 2013.

Brighton: beaten finalists in 1991.

Only two defeats in their last six aways, but nine draws in their last 20 road trips in the league and 18 ties this season proves the Seagulls are the draw specialists. Have won at Cardiff and Watford in 2012/13, but lost (and failed to score) at Hull, Palace and Leicester.

Head to head at Selhurst Park: Palace have won four of the last six games in the league, but Brighton haven’t scored more than one goal at Palace since Christmas 1983.

Only a desperately late strike from Mile Jedinak last Saturday earned the points necessary to confirm a playoff place for Crystal Palace. Defensively they’ve only kept two clean sheets at home since January, but they’ve performed well at home against the other sides that finished in the top six, only losing to Watford on the first day of the season. For a large part of the season, Palace were over-reliant on Glenn Murray for goals, but Ian Holloway’s signing of Kevin Phillips was inspired. Between them, Murray and Phillips have accounted for thirteen of the nineteen goals the Eagles have scored in the league at Selhurst Park since goalless draw with Bolton in January.

If ever there was a team that was built for the playoffs it’s Brighton. Leonardo Ulloa and Andrea Orlandi and aren’t exactly household names, but along with David Lopez and Will Buckley they are more than capable of scoring goals away from home. One thing that’s been overlooked so far is that Brighton conceded less than one goal per game during the regular season (only Leicester and Charlton conceded fewer goals on their travels) and actually lost fewer away games than both Hull and Cardiff. The other side to that particular coin: they failed to beat any of the relegated clubs away from home – a couple of extra points could have resulted in automatic promotion.

Verdict: Brighton’s defence is the key to this game. Having shipped three goals in the corresponding league game in December, Albion have kept more away clean sheets since then than Palace have at Selhurst Park in the same period. If the Seagulls can keep Murray and Phillips under wraps they should be able to take some sort of advantage back to the Amex Stadium next week, but if Palace can duplicate the same performance as they did in December this tie could be over before the second leg. Having said that, four of the last five first legs between fifth and fourth placed sides have finished with one goal or less and it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if that happened again on Friday.

Hull or Watford will be promoted as runners up to Cardiff City.

The last playoff place will be between Crystal Palace, Bolton, Nottingham Forest or Leicester. Brighton are in the playoffs regardless of what happens and unless something very peculiar happens at Selhurst Park or the Amex, the Seagulls will finish fourth and probably won’t be promoted.

At the bottom, Wolves will have to score a lot of goals and win to stand any chance of staying up. After that, whatever happens is anyone’s guess.

It’s almost impossible to chose the game of the week as there are so many candidates, so I’ll stick to those that will have an impact on the playoffs and relegation. Sky Sports will be showing Hull v Cardiff on Sky Sports 2 and Watford v Leeds will be on Sky Sports Interactive – both games kick off at 12:45pm. Brace yourselves for lots of ‘as it stands’ graphics and double box silliness, but regular readers won’t be too surprised that I’m looking elsewhere for the vital games.

Brighton v Wolves

On 11^th May 1985 – the same day as the fire at Bradford City in which 56 fans lost their lives – Blackburn Rovers beat Wolves 3-0 at Ewood Park and the visitors were relegated to the third tier of English football for the first time in their long and famous history. 26 years and 51 weeks later, Wolves are facing exactly the same predicament.

Even though there were no playoffs in 1984-85, Brighton would have qualified for them. They beat Sheffield United 1-0 on the same day to finish sixth, three points ahead of Leeds.

Looking back at what I’ve written about Wolves this season, I still find it hard to believe that this is the same team that – at the start of October – had won four games in a row. By Christmas the wheels had started coming off and the 3^rd rd FA Cup defeat by Luton was the end of Stale Solbakken.

Wolves have a horrible record at Brighton historically and against the current top six this season. They’ve managed just one win in their last ten visits to Sussex (in September 2004), but they’ve lost every single away game against the current top nine teams this season. Brighton don’t need a miracle. Wolves do.

Crystal Palace v Peterborough

Cast your mind back to approximately 5:00pm on December 1^st 2012. Crystal Palace had just beaten Brighton 3-0 to go top of the Championship. Peterborough had been beaten 4-1 at home by Blackpool and were bottom, which they had been for most of the season until then. Five months later and the scenario is this: one more unconvincing result for Palace and they’ll be in the Championship next season. One more outstanding effort from the Posh and so will they.

Posh haven’t won at Selhurst Park since April 1963 and have failed to score there in three of their last four league games. Although they’ve won at both Cardiff and Hull this season, their record against the top half of the table is 2-2-7 and they’ve failed to score in seven of those games.

Palace have only lost twice at home, but haven’t won any of their last four games in front of their own fans, despite having taken the lead in the games against Leeds and Leicester:  despite still being the leading goalscorer in the Championship, Glenn Murray hasn’t hit the net at Selhurst Park since the start of March. The 4-0 home defeat by Birmingham City at the end of March really seems to have upset Palace’s confidence and if they’re off form against Peterborough, the season could finish on a sour note. It’s worth remembering that a point isn’t really any good for either side.

Nottingham Forest v Leicester City

This game is exactly why the Football League is better than the Premier League. Last week’s League 1 game at Brentford – where the winner could win the title if Bournemouth didn’t win at Tranmere – was decided on a goal following a missed penalty, This week we have a local derby in the Championship that could decide the last playoff place but may be completely irrelevant if another team – in this case Bolton – wins their local derby.

The bad news for Leicester is that they’ve not won at the City Ground since January 1972 and they’ve drawn far too many games against the top sides this season – in fact, they’ve not won any away games against teams in the current top half of the table. I didn’t fancy their chances last Summer and their recent form has been mediocre at best: their last away win came at Bristol City in mid January.

Mind you, Forest’s home record against the teams immediately around them is nothing to write home about either: they’ve not beaten any of the teams they might face in the playoffs – but the one sensible thing that the Al-Hasawi’s have done this season was give Billy Davies his old job back. Watch out for Forest next season – especially if Billy Sharp decides to stay or they sign a proven goalscorer.

Here’s what I think will happen:

Watford will batter Leeds – the Hornets have scored in six of their last seven games at Vicarage Road and scored in the first half of four of those – and will finish second. Hull need to beat Cardiff, but I can’t see that happening, primarily due to Hull’s nervous end to the season but also because Malky Mackay won’t want the Champions finishing their campaign with a defeat. Bolton will score early and beat Blackpool, therefore securing the last playoff place because Nottingham Forest and Leicester will be involved an anti-climactic draw. Nigel Pearson won’t be in charge at the King Power Stadium at the beginning of next season.

Wolves will lose at Brighton and will go down, but will be favourites to win automatic promotion from League 1 next season. Although Peterborough will do their best at Crystal Palace, Barnsley will pinch a point at Huddersfield to send the Posh back to League One. As I pointed out at the start of this season, Posh have never spent three consecutive seasons in the second tier.

There’ll be an update as soon as the games have finished, including the dates and times for the playoff ties.

UPDATE: I’ve been a fan since the early 1970s and I can honestly say that I’ve never seen anything like what happened this afternoon.

The basics: Hull are up. Wolves and Peterborough are down. Leicester sneaked into the playoffs.

The reality: 18 minutes of first half injury time at Vicarage Road…Watford lose two ‘keepers to injury…Cardiff take the lead at Hull…at various points during the day Huddersfield, Millwall, Barnsley and Peterborough could have been relegated…Troy Deeney gets a red card…Hull miss a penalty, then Cardiff score a penalty about 90 seconds later…Steve Bruce chases the ref down the tunnel…Watford’s teenage debutant keeper makes a huge mistake…

I need a lie down. Back later.

Anyway, enough moaning about Sky for this week. There’s a distinct possibility that by 5:00pm tomorrow afternoon the automatic promotion place will have been settled.

Only Hull, Watford, Brighton and Crystal Palace can still win automatic promotion, although it would take a very odd combination of results for the latter pair to do so. Still, this is the Championship and anything could happen.

At the bottom, it’s anyone’s guess who’s going to be joining Bristol City in League 1 next season, although my guess is it’ll go down to next weekend and that any two from Peterborough, Barnsley and Wolves will be going down – the Posh hold advantages over Wolves in terms of goal difference and goals scored.

As for game of the week, there are far too many games to chose from this weekend. Tonight we’ve got Watford’s trip to Leicester (Sky Sports 1, 7:45pm): if the Hornets fail to win at the King Power Stadium tonight then Hull will only need a point at Barnsley tomorrow to win automatic promotion. If Watford lose, that’s it: Hull are up. The Foxes have only won two of their last six games at the King Power Stadium, but they seem to have rediscovered their shooting boots with five goals in the last two home games with Jeff Schlupp scoring three of them. The problem is that defensively Leicester aren’t that sound – two home clean sheets in the last ten is nothing special – and there’s a been at least one goal after 70 minutes in each of the last ten home games.

Watford have lost two of their last three aways but the good news for Hornets fans is that they’ve not lost three in a row on the road since Autumn 2011 and with wins at Hull, Palace and Brighton this season Watford have shown their ability: if Jeff Schlupp is the player that Watford defenders need to keep an eye on, then the same can be said for Troy Deeney and Matej Vydra. The bad news is that the Hertfordshire outfit have only won one of their last ten visits to Leicester and a draw is no good for them.

Even if Hull are promoted tonight, tomorrow’s games will still have an impact on the playoffs and relegation. Although we’re waving goodbye to Cardiff City for the foreseeable future, their opponents tomorrow are looking to consolidate a playoff place. Bolton have been worse than average on the road this season, but it’s their home form they need to reproduce at the City Of Cardiff stadium if they want a top six finish. Wanderers will also have the advantage of knowing precisely what to do tomorrow if Leicester win this evening.

It’s at the bottom where the drama will be over the next couple of weekends. First of all, spare a thought for Bristol City. Over the last ten seasons, nine of the clubs that eventually finished bottom earned fewer points over the whole season than the Robins already have with two games less. Despite losing their place in the Championship, City could still have a big impact on who goes down with them if they can beat Huddersfield at Ashton Gate.

The biggest game at the bottom of the table is between Peterborough and Sheffield Wednesday (Sky Sports 2, 5:20pm tomorrow). Despite having spent the entire season in the bottom four, the Posh can still save themselves from relegation: they’ve only lost five games in the latter half of the season. Wednesday have been consistently in the bottom third of the table since September, but have never really looked like candidates for the drop, but the competitive nature of the Championship this season means the Owls are not out of danger by any means.

Before I sign off for now, it’s the last game in League 1 tomorrow and with three clubs in with a chance of winning the division it couldn’t be any tighter. We already know the Bournemouth will be playing in the Championship next season, but it’s a fight between Doncaster Rovers and Brentford for the remaining automatic place.

There will be at least one update tomorrow and possibly even one later depending on how Watford do at Leicester, so please stay tuned!

Update: Watford won 2-1 at Leicester – Nathaniel Chalobah scored one of the goals of the season t0 give the Hornets a 2-0 lead – and so Hull have to beat Barnsley tomorrow afternoon to win automatic promotion.

Congratulations are also in order for AFC Bournemouth, who will be playing in the Championship next season after their 3-1 win over Carlisle yesterday.

The Cherries – under former Burnley boss Eddie Howe – will be playing in the second tier for the first time since 1990 and The Goldsands Stadium shouldn’t have any competition in the contest to be the smallest stadium in the Championship in 2013/14.

At a later date I’ll post something about how the fate of both clubs seems to have been dependent on how they differed on some fundamental strategies, but for the moment it’s congratulations to the Bluebirds and commiserations to the Robins.

The first thing about this weekend’s action is that for the second time in five years Hull could be promoted to the Premier League if they beat Bristol City tonight (Sky Sports 1, 7:45pm). Watford would need to beat Blackburn tomorrow afternoon to stand a chance of overtaking the Tigers if Hull fail to win later, but that’s far from guaranteed.

Watford haven’t won at home since the start of last month – their longest streak without a win at Vicarage Road since September – and although their last home game was an uncharacteristic goalless draw with Cardiff, they should get back to winning ways. Blackburn have lost five straight away games and hadn’t scored more than one goal on their travels since winning at Barnsley at the end of December: Jordan Rhodes’ penalty at Hillsborough a few weeks ago was Rovers’ first away goal since Scott Dann’s opener at Brighton – which was two days before Valentine’s Day.

As for the other playoff places, the Curse Of Fourth Place now comes into play. If we assume that Watford have already qualified for the post season, the race for the other three places couldn’t be any tighter and game of the week is between Crystal Palace and Leicester

Like Watford, Palace also haven’t won at home since the start of last month, something that can be attributed to their sudden inability to score goals at Selhurst Park. Since Glenn Murray notched a brace against Leeds, they’ve failed to score twice, which is more or less what they did at this point last season.

If Palace haven’t been dominant at home recently, Leicester have been even worse on their travels. The Foxes haven’t won on the road since they demolished Bristol City 4-0 at Ashton Gate in January and have got to play Watford and Nottingham Forest before the end of the season. At this point I can’t help remembering my comment earlier in the season that the Foxes only did well in the first half of the season because they’d had an easy set of games.

One interesting aspect about this game is how few draws there have been in league matches between these two at Selhurst. Palace’s 2-3 home defeat by Watford on the opening Saturday is the only time they’ve lost to another top six side, but although Leciester haven’t beaten a top six side on the road this season, they’ve drawn three of their four games against those clubs. A point might would be more use for Palace than Leicester, but if Bolton beat Middlesbrough then Leicester could drop out of the top six with two games left to play.

Overall, this looks like a game between two out of form teams who have failed to maintain their form over the last quarter of the season – and I’ll be surprised if either of them play Cardiff next season.

At the bottom the situation is even more confused that I thought it would be. It’s possible that any of the teams in the bottom half of the table could join Bristol City in League 1 next season, although both Millwall and Blackburn have games in hand (they play each other next Tuesday) that could be vital to survival. I think I’ll wait until next week to see how the situation has changed – and it’s bound to change.

Before I go for this week, I’ve seen a couple of articles claiming that there’s unrest in the Championship about the parachute payments. If anything comes of this, I’ll pass it on.

I’m not going to call all Millwall fans every name under the sun as I’m fairly sure that the majority of them are the same as the rest of us. Like a lot of other clubs, the Lions have ‘fans’ they could do without, but the general reaction of the media was predictable and – dare I say it – out of date. For example, cocaine is widely used amongst contemporary hooligans but that was reported as if it was some kind of new and unexpected development.

Whoever is in charge of Millwall’s investigation into what happened needs to come down like a ton of bricks on the idiots who ruined Saturday’s FA Cup semi final and I’m sure that the club authorities will hold a thorough investigation.

However, the FA shouldn’t escape any criticism either. Whoever decided that a 5:15pm kickoff and that tickets for the Millwall end should be on general sale was a good idea is clearly a bloody fool. Having experienced several Millwall visits to my local club, I’m convinced that the only way of reducing the tangible threat of trouble at high profile away games is to move the kickoff time back to the earliest possible moment and make sure that anyone who buys tickets can be identified and traced – no cash sales for example. I’ve seen an argument put forward that an early kickoff would have inconvenienced Wigan fans, but let’s face it: 10000 Wigan tickets were returned and sacrificing inconvenience for safety is a no brainer. If you were a Wigan fan, you would have gone to the game whenever it was or you’d have stayed at home.

Now back to events on the field of play. We might be saying farewell to a couple of familiar teams tonight.

At the top, the circumstances are beautifully set up for Cardiff City to return to the top tier of…errr…English football for the first time in over half a century. Hull and Watford are both away and the Bluebirds could be promoted if they don’t lose at home to Charlton.

At the bottom, if Bristol City lose at home to Birmingham, they’re relegated. There are a combination of results that could see the Robins go down even if they win, but if anything happens tonight that’s worth reporting I’ll update this post when I get back from the game I’m watching later.

Tonight there are three games with a direct impact on both issues:

Peterborough v Brighton

Posh were 3-0 up against Watford with 20 minutes left but their dodgy defence made it a hard earned three points on Saturday even though the Hornets played the last half an hour or so with ten men after Marco Cassetti was sent off. Peterborough earned a temporary reprieve, but let’s not forget that they’ve only lost once in the league at London Road since Christmas and during that period have picked up seven points from a possible nine against the current top six. That’s promotion form and I think Darren Ferguson is a possible candidate for Manager of the Season.

Brighton had a straightforward 2-0 win at the Riverside to maintain their push for a playoff place, but they need to be aware of the curse of fourth place in their remaining four games. The Seagulls haven’t won back to back away games since September but have only lost once at the teams in the current bottom six this season and should be able to nick a point at least.

Wolves v Hull

The hosts took the lead at Molineux after four minutes on Saturday, but then ten minutes of madness resulted in two Huddersfield goals plus a straight red for Jamie O’Hara. Wolves are now in big, big trouble: the two recent wins at Molineux came against sides that have been terrible for one reason or another (Bristol City and Middlesbrough) and provided a glimpse of a false dawn for Wolves fans. It’s worth pointing out – once again – that three home wins since December is an awful record. Wolves haven’t beaten any of the current sides in the playoff positions at Molineux this season

Hull did exactly what they needed to at Portman Road and Watford’s defeat at Peterborough means a six point gap for the Tigers with four games left to play. A very soft run in – the Tigers two games after this one are against Bristol City and Barnsley – should mean automatic promotion, which could be earned as early as this Friday. Steve Bruce’s outfit have only lost two of their nine games so far against the bottom six.

Tonight’s useful stats: Hull have won three of their last ten league games at Molineux, but Wolves have only won two of the last six meetings when they’ve had home advantage.

Blackburn v Huddersfield

On Saturday, Blackburn won at home for the first time since mid-February, but still dropped a place thanks to Huddersfield’s win at Wolves and are only above Peterborough on goal difference, having scored 12 fewer goals than Posh. Their home form hasn’t been that bad, but three draws in the last six at Ewood Park combined with five consecutive away defeats means Rovers are still scrapping for their Championship status. Blackburn’s only home win against another club in the bottom six was against Barnsley.

Huddersfield have the Championship’s worst goal difference, but although their defence has been better recently, they’re still conceding an average of two goals a game away from the Galpharm Stadium and have to face Jordan Rhodes tonight. Their current away from (last game first) is WLWLWL so this looks like a game they won’t win, but it’s one they mustn’t lose either. Wins at Barnsley and Wolves show that Town are capable of winning at Ewood Park.

Finally – for the moment at least – Brian McDermott returned to management with Leeds United after being the sack by Reading recently. Leeds – and Leicester – have both underachieved this season and McDermott’s appointment at Elland Road is a very, very shrewd move. He knows the Championship, but more importantly, he knows how to win the Championship. My guess is that Leeds will be among the favourites for promotion when the bookies price up the market in the summer.

Update: congratulations to Cardiff City on winning promotion to the Premier League following their goalless draw with Charlton earlier tonight. Commiserations to Bristol City, who will be playing in League One next season.

Something a bit different this week – Millwall are the first Championship club to reach the semi finals of the FA Cup for five years and as there’s a full league programme next weekend I’m going to concentrate on the Lions.

We’ll start with a few facts in case anyone gets carried away and without sweetening the pill too much, it’s fair to say that history isn’t on Millwall’s side. Since 1872, only eight second tier sides have won the FA Cup and the last time anyone outside the top division was successful was over three decades ago. In order to West Ham’s win into perspective, the Hammers won the old Second Division by thirteen points when a win was only worth two; that’s the equivalent of a team winning the Championship by twenty points and winning the FA Cup.

Since the turn of the century, only eight of the 52 semi finalists have been from the second tier and we’ve had precisely none since 2007/2008. Five years ago, three of the four semi finalists were Championship clubs – but Portsmouth (then a Premier League club) won it. In the past decade, the Championship has only produced two finalists (Cardiff in 2008 and Millwall in 2004) and neither team scored in their respective finals.

But before I get carried away with how the odds are against Millwall, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that Kenny Jackett’s side could pull off an upset. First of all, those records aren’t going to last forever. There was a gap of 42 years between West Brom winning the cup in 1931 and Sunderland’s victory in the early 1970s. Then there’s the fact that although Millwall have lost both the Football League Trophy and the League 1 playoff final to Wigan, this time round the FA Cup is more of a distraction to Wigan who are involved in a relegation battle at the foot of the Premier League. There’s a still a possibility that this game could be a Championship match this season.

The biggest advantage Millwall have is that Wembley is practically a home game. It’s about half an hour from Bermondsey to the National Stadium on the tube and with Wigan rumoured to have returned 10,000 unsold tickets (a sign that the fans may not be taking this seriously) there’s a definite psychological advantage for the London club. Some Millwall fans may not be to everyone’s taste, but there’s no denying that they can create an atmosphere.

Since beating Blackburn in the quarter final replay, Millwall have only lost once. Chris Maguire’s last minute winner for Sheffield Wednesday was the first loss at the New Den since the start of last month and their form away from home is even better. The Lions have kept three clean sheets in their last six road trips.

As I mentioned before, we don’t often have Championship teams in the FA Cup semi finals, so it’s time to put our differences aside today and support the Lions.

The biggest spanner in the works at the top end of the table was provided by Burnley. Sam Vokes’ late equaliser at Vicarage Road meant that Watford go into tomorrow’s game at Hull four points behind the Tigers instead of two. I’ll take a closer look at that game tomorrow, but suffice to say that if Cardiff’s win over Crystal Palace at Christmas was the biggest game of the season so far, tomorrow’s match at the KC Stadium is easily the second biggest. What a shame neither of those games were available on television.

At the bottom, it looks like Bristol City and any two of the seven clubs above the Robins will be competing in League 1 next season. City’s 3-0 defeat at Derby on Friday night left them six points adrift at the bottom of the table with seven games left to play. Wolves, Peterborough and Sheffield Wednesday all won, which meant that Barnsley dropped back into the bottom three following their defeat at Hillsborough.

Having said that I was going to focus on three games on Friday, I rather stupidly assumed that Leicester wouldn’t drop out of the playoff places. However, having played almost all of the game against Millwall with ten men after Wes Morgan was sent off after two minutes, a late strike from Alan Dunne earned all three points for the Lions and made today’s post a lot easier for me. Despite having the best defence in the Championship, Leicester have failed to win any of their last six games and have dropped out of the top six for the first time since the end of September.

That leaves us with two huge games over the next couple of days. This afternoon’s game of the day is at Ashton Gate where Sheffield Wednesday take on Bristol City in a game that the hosts need to win to stand any chance of staying up.

The fact that the Robins could still stay up is as glowing a tribute to Sean O’Driscoll’s managerial skills. Since he took over the reins, City haven’t lost at home and have kept four clean sheets in their last five outings at Ashton Gate. The damage was done earlier in the season: nine straight home games without a win under new Aberdeen boss Derek McInnes was an indication that City’s form had gone from bad to worse and even though the revival under O’Driscoll has been impressive, you get the feeling that it’s come too late to save Bristol City. One thing in the Robins’ favour: only three clubs in the Championship have scored more goals at home than City and both Steve Davies and Jonathan Stead have been in fine form recently.

If Bristol City have improved at home recently, Sheffield Wednesday have done just as well away from Hillsborough over the same period. One defeat on the road in their last eight matches has been offset by generally poor home form, which is why the Owls are still not out of the woods at the bottom of the table. Dave Jones has obviously emphasised defensive toughness on the road in recent games – five clean sheets in the last eight aways is proof of that – and on paper, this afternoon’s game looks as if it could be a nervous encounter with few goals. With five of the six league games between these two at Ashton Gate ending in 1-1 draws, I’d not be surprised if that happens again, but the hosts need more than a point to keep their hopes of survival alive.

Back again tomorrow – with the first of the single game previews that will mark the beginning of the end of the season.