It’s the most bizarre twist in World Cup qualifying history: San Marino, the world’s lowest-ranked national team at 210th, could reach the 2026 FIFA World CupCanada, Mexico, and the United States—but only if they lose badly. On November 18, 2025, they’ll face Romania at the San Marino Stadium in Serravalle. Win? They’re out. Lose by six or more goals? They might just make it. Welcome to modern football’s most surreal math problem.
How Did We Get Here?
The chaos began when UEFA merged its Nations League with World Cup qualifying. Normally, only the top two teams from each of the 12 qualification groups advance directly. The remaining playoff spots go to Nations League group winners—if they haven’t already qualified. That’s where San Marino’s miracle comes in. Despite losing all eight of their World Cup qualifiers (0 wins, 0 draws, 8 losses, 2 goals for, 39 against), they won their UEFA Nations League D Group 3 in 2024, beating teams like Gibraltar and Liechtenstein. That victory gave them a playoff lifeline, regardless of their dismal World Cup group performance.
Here’s the twist: San Marino’s playoff seeding depends on goal difference across all Nations League D teams. If they lose heavily to Romania, their overall goal difference drops—but so do those of other teams in their playoff pool. The system rewards teams with the most favorable relative goal difference when comparing all Nations League D qualifiers. A 7-1 loss might sink them in the World Cup group, but it could lift them above others in the playoff ranking. It’s like losing a race by running faster than everyone else.
The Numbers Don’t Lie (But They Confuse Everyone)
San Marino’s record in Group H is brutal: 0 points, 2 goals scored, 39 conceded. Their 7-1 defeat to Romania in June 2025 drew over 8,400 fans—a record for them. Their 5-1 loss to the same team in June was watched by 3,500. Against Cyprus, they lost 4-0 in front of fewer than 600 spectators. The crowd sizes tell their own story: hope, but not expectation.
But here’s the kicker: San Marino’s Nations League win means they’re already in the playoff draw. Now, it’s about positioning. If they lose 8-0 to Romania, and another Nations League D team loses by only 3 goals, San Marino’s goal difference becomes comparatively better. It’s not about winning—it’s about being the least bad in a group of terrible results. As Doug Greenberg, senior betting analyst at ESPN, put it: “San Marino could potentially still advance in World Cup qualifying—but only if they lose.”
Why This Matters Beyond San Marino
This isn’t just a quirky footnote. It’s a warning shot to football’s governing bodies. The integration of Nations League and World Cup qualifying was meant to give smaller nations more meaningful games. Instead, it created a system where a team can qualify by being the most predictable loser. Fans of minnows like San Marino, Andorra, or Luxembourg now face a moral dilemma: root for a big win? Or pray for a crushing defeat?
It also exposes a flaw in how FIFA and UEFA measure competitiveness. A team with zero wins, zero draws, and 37 goals conceded is being judged on goal difference in a different competition. That’s not sport—it’s spreadsheet football. And it’s turning national pride into a statistical exercise.
What Happens If They Lose—and Still Don’t Qualify?
Even if San Marino loses by the perfect margin, they’re not guaranteed a playoff spot. It depends on how other Nations League D teams perform in their final matches. If Gibraltar beats Liechtenstein by 5 goals, they could leapfrog San Marino. The final standings won’t be clear until the last whistle of the last match across all groups on November 18.
And if San Marino somehow qualifies? They’d face one of the top teams from Nations League C or B in a two-legged playoff. Their chances of reaching the World Cup finals? Less than 5%. But for a nation of just 33,000 people, even that sliver of hope is everything.
History, Hope, and the San Marino Football Federation
Founded in 1931, the Federazione Sammarinese Giuoco Calcio has never taken its team to a World Cup. Their best result? A 0-0 draw with Liechtenstein in 2004. They’ve lost 100+ times in official matches. Their home stadium holds just 7,000 people. Their players are part-timers—teachers, mechanics, students—who train after work.
But on November 18, they’ll play for more than pride. They’ll play for the chance to become the first team in history to qualify for a World Cup by losing badly. It’s absurd. It’s heartbreaking. It’s beautiful.
Frequently Asked Questions
How can losing help San Marino qualify for the World Cup?
San Marino’s Nations League D group win gives them a playoff spot, but their seeding depends on goal difference across all Nations League D teams. A heavy loss to Romania could improve their relative goal difference compared to other teams, potentially moving them higher in the playoff ranking. It’s not about their own score—it’s about how their loss compares to others’ results.
Has any team ever qualified for the World Cup by losing badly before?
No. This is unprecedented. While teams have qualified despite poor records (like Northern Ireland in 1982), no team has ever been mathematically positioned to qualify by losing by a specific margin. The link between Nations League performance and World Cup qualifying has never produced a scenario this convoluted.
What’s the exact scoreline San Marino needs to qualify?
There’s no fixed number. It depends on other Nations League D results. Analysts suggest a loss of 6-0 or worse could help, but if Gibraltar beats Liechtenstein 5-0, that might push San Marino down. The final standings won’t be clear until all matches conclude on November 18, 2025.
Why did UEFA link the Nations League with World Cup qualifying?
UEFA wanted to make Nations League matches more meaningful and reduce meaningless friendlies. But the system created unintended consequences—like this one. Smaller nations now have more games, but the rules are so complex that even experts struggle to predict outcomes.
What happens if San Marino wins against Romania?
They’d be eliminated from World Cup contention. Their Nations League win gives them a playoff spot, but their poor goal difference in World Cup qualifying would make them the lowest-ranked playoff team. A win against Romania would worsen their relative goal difference, likely dropping them below other teams in the playoff rankings.
Is this fair to San Marino?
It’s not about fairness—it’s about structure. San Marino didn’t break any rules. But the system rewards statistical manipulation over sporting merit. Many fans and analysts agree: the rules need revising. For now, San Marino’s players are caught in a paradox: they’re being asked to lose with purpose.