Buzzin Championship Football

One of the recurring themes in last season’s Championship campaign was that despite being handed repeated opportunities to overtake them, none of QPR’s rivals ever really took advantage when the eventual champions dropped points. The biggest culprits were Cardiff City: despite having spent most of the first half of last season in second place, the Bluebirds eventually melted down at the business end of the campaign and their dreams of automatic promotion were crushed when Middlesbrough won 3-0 at the City of Cardiff Stadium in May. The rematch is this weekend and is game of the week.

After having made a rash prediction a fortnight ago, I’ve obviously temporarily jinxed both Southampton and West Ham. Having taken the lead against Blackpool at St. Mary’s, the Saints only managed to salvage their unbeaten run thanks to an injury time equaliser by Rickie Lambert after the visitors had taken the lead thanks to a howler by Southampton’s Polish keeper Bartosz Bialkowski.

West Ham didn’t just lose at Reading, they imploded. You have to wonder if Big Sam wound his players up a little too tightly: Joey O’Brien can’t really complain about his two yellow cards for wild tackles, but although there was an element of taunting in Jimmy Kebe’s behaviour towards the end of the game, Jack Collison’s rush of blood was unpardonable and Neil Swarbrick was right to show the Welsh international a straight red card.

Hull won more comfortably at Coventry than the scoreline suggested and are in a good position going into Christmas programme. Despite the amazing comeback by Ipswich in the tea time game at Oakwell, the benefit of hindsight suggests that something spectacular might have been on the cards: prior to the game, there’d only been two other matches in the Championship this season that had featured eight goals: there are no prizes for guessing which teams were involved in a 5-3 defeat at Cardiff and a 7-1 drubbing at Peterborough.

This weekend is the penultimate Saturday programme for 2011 but with each club playing three games being played between Boxing Day and the 3^rd round of the FA Cup, you often hear pundits make the assumption that results over the festive season have a disproportionate impact of the success or failure of a club over the entire season. For example, this time year the three clubs that were eventually promoted were in the top six, while at the bottom half the clubs in the bottom six were eventually relegated. It was a similar story in 2009/10.

It might be more realistic to argue that results over the Christmas period give a long term indication of which direction a club could be heading. Last Christmas Coventry were in the last playoff place: after losing at Cardiff the Sky Blues only won one of their next sixteen games and have been in decline ever since. On the other hand, Middlesbrough were in the bottom six last Christmas but a 3-1 win at Preston was the start of a five game unbeaten run that effectively kick started their season.

As I mentioned in the opening paragraph, Tony Mowbray’s finest 90 minutes in charge of Middlesbrough was their first win in Cardiff since October 1970. The end of season victory was as important for Boro as it was damaging for Cardiff: Mowbray’s side have shown that their form at the end of last season wasn’t a fluke. On the other hand, Cardiff have been rebuilt by Malky McKay – only two of the side that collapsed against Middlesbrough back in May played against Millwall last weekend – and are actually performing at a slightly better level than they were last season. There’s a clear incentive for both sides to go for the win this weekend as there’s a mathematical possibility that if this game produces a winner and West Ham fail to beat Barnsley, then either Cardiff or Boro could go second.

The big game at the wrong end of the table features two clubs that currently have a lot in common. Nottingham Forest are learning the same lesson as Bristol City did a year ago: when you have three managers in a calendar year, a collapse in home form and forget how to score goals it’s hard to be successful in the Championship. Although Messers McInnes and Cotterill were taken on to reverse the decline in South Bristol and the east bank of the Trent, it’s increasingly looking as if Steve Cotterill may have the harder job. The Forest boss could benefit from history this weekend though as Bristol City’s record against Forest at Ashton Gate is dire: the Robins haven’t beaten Forest in the league since December 1974 despite having had ten opportunities to do so. Four of the last six games between the sides in South Bristol have ended in draws – a result that neither side needs right now.

There are two televised games this weekend: if you don’t mind interrupting your Sunday lunch, the South Coast derby between Portsmouth and Southampton should be worth watching on (BBC2, 1:00pm) especially as it’s only the fourth league meeting at Fratton Park since Southampton won the FA Cup in 1976 and the third meeting in all competitions this century. Pompey’s home form is as good as any of the promotion contenders while it’s worth remembering that Southampton haven’t kept a clean sheet on the road since August and lost their last two away games to sides in the bottom six.

On Monday night The Bleak Old Shop Of Stuff is on BBC2, which might have been a better name for Crystal Palace v Birmingham City (Sky Sports 7:45pm), which is the last game in the Championship before Christmas. Neither club has been in a particularly good run of form recently – despite knocking Manchester United out of the Carling Cup Palace haven’t won at Selhurst Park or scored more than one goal in a league game since mid October, while Birmingham have lost four of their last five games and have failed to score in three of those.

All being well I’ll be back before the end of next week with an overview of the games over the holiday period, but I’ll wish you all a Happy Christmas now just in case I get sidetracked by repeats of the Morecambe & Wise Show combined too many mince pies and glasses of port…