Category: Millwall

Weekend Preview 9th April 2016

We’re now into the final month of the regular season and over the next couple of weeks the major issues at both ends will be decided. As I’ve neglected Buzzin’ League One Football over the past few weeks, today’s post is a shorter one so I can write a longer one over there.

The three matches to keep an eye on are all 3:00pm kick offs tomorrow and none are televised.

Bristol City v Sheffield Wednesday

City took a large step towards survival by not losing at home to Rotherham on Tuesday but the Robins can take an even bigger step if they avoid defeat tomorrow.  The bad news for City is that Wednesday are unbeaten in their last four away games and haven’t conceded a goal in that sequence; the good news for the Robins is that Sheffield Wednesday have won only one league game in ten at Ashton Gate since September 1973.

Derby v Bolton

A very simple scenario here: if Bolton don’t pick up at least a point at the iPro, they’ll be as good as relegated. Derby battered Hull on Tuesday night (the Rams were 2-0 up before Moses Odubajo was sent off) and only need three points to more of less guarantee a play off place at the expense of both Cardiff and Ipswich. If the Rams can score four goals without reply against Hull, you have to fear for Bolton’s chances tomorrow.

MK Dons v Rotherham

A vital game for both teams but one that the Dons have to win to stand any chance of avoiding relegation. Their recent home form has been patchy: one win and three defeats in the last six, although their only home defeat to one of the other strugglers was back in February, when they were beaten by Bristol City.

Rotherham’s recent impressive form has been based on a big improvement on their home performances and although they maintained their three game unbeaten streak on the road with a point at Bristol City earlier this week, they’ve not managed to go four away games without defeat since the middle of last season. When you consider that the Millers have only won one away game against the team in the bottom half of the table and have never won at Milton Keynes, Rotherham suddenly look unexpectedly vulnerable at completely the wrong time of the season.

This weekend’s televised games: Burnley v Leeds (tomorrow, 12:30 kick off, Sky Sports 1) and Nottingham Forest v Brighton (Monday, 7:45pm kick off, Sky Sports 1) 

I’ll be back next week.

Update: Bolton have been relegated to League One.

Must Win For The Millers

In almost five years writing for this blog, I think this is about the first time I’ve ever written consecutive midweek posts.

Anway, tonight’s game in South Yorkshire is a bit ‘after the Lord Mayor’s Show’ but is basically a win or die scenario for Rotherham. If the Millers beat Reading then both Millwall and Wigan will be relegated and Rotherham will finish the season above the red line but with an asterisk and a footnote in their permanent record. Not for the first time either.

The Royals have lost three of their last five road trips and haven’t beaten tonight’s opponents outside Berkshire since September 2009; Rotherham have improved slightly over recent weeks; they’ve only conceded once in their last two homes, as opposed to shipping eight goals in their previous three outings at the NY Stadium.

Wild guess: Rotherham have only lost at home once to the other sides in the bottom ten, but Reading have drawn all of their aways against the teams currently below them. A tight game with a bit of late drama perhaps? Sky Sports will be hoping so. I’ll return with an update later.

Update: Rotherham are safe. A 2-1 win condemned both Wigan and Millwall to relegation but also means that the only drama on Saturday lunchtime is whether Bournemouth or Norwich win the Championship and which of the four teams from that have reached at least 70 points will ensure the last two play off spots.

Squeaky Bum Time…

Not for the first time, a fantastic (but probably unintentional) piece of scheduling has provided us with three dramatic games over the next couple of days and a Monday night game that could be absolutely vital for Bournemouth‘s chances of automatic promotion.

The big change last weekend was Watford taking over at the top after beating Birmingham City. Bournemouth’s draw with Sheffield Wednesday and Middlesbrough winning at Norwich give the Hornets a slim advantage that might not last long. The top four are still in with a chance of automatic promotion but the next four are all in competition for the last playoff place. At the bottom, the situation changed dramatically this morning when the Football League confirmed that Rotherham had been deducted three points for using an unregistered player in a recent game. The Millers now have a one point advantage over Millwall with a match in hand, but the punishment has also thrown Wigan an unexpected lifeline.

Here are the games that I think will matter tomorrow:

Brighton v Watford (tomorrow, 12:15pm, Sky Sports 1)

Albion haven’t won at home since the start of march, haven’t scored a goal at the Amex since the middle of last month and haven’t beaten Watford at home for over a decade. I know we’re not even at the end of April, but this is the type of calamitous performance that normally indicates a struggle to stay up during the following season. I think it’s fair to say Chris Hughton has done enough to save the Seagulls for now. On the other hand, Watford are on an eight game unbeaten run away from home, have a superb record against the current bottom six both at home and away (10-1-0) which includes not conceding an away goal against anyof those teams. However, it’s about this time of the season that really weird results happen and I wouldn’t be in the least bit surprised if Brighton win.

Millwall v Derby

An odd one. Before Rotherham’s points deduction the bookies didn’t think either Millwall would stay up or Derby would go up, which means that this game might be totally irrelevant in a few weeks time. Needless to say, both sides need a win but the Rams have only won three of their last ten road trips and have only won once in their five league games at Millwall in the last decade. The Lions have won two of their last three games at the New Den, but that doesn’t look as if it’s going to be enough to save them. My contrarian instincts predict a draw, which could be no use for either side.

Rotherham v Norwich

Whoever was responsible for the mistake that allowed Farrend Dawson to play in the 1-0 win against Brighton on Easter Monday must be feeling the heat today. If the Millers end up back in League One for what is basically an admin error, it’ll be an albatross round their necks forever. That victory was the only thing keeping United away from the bottom three and having already lost at home to bournemouth, Watford and Middlesbrough at the New York Stadium this season without scoring, the first league meeting between these two clubs since January 2004 could easily get away from Rotherham, who haven’t beaten the Canaries since August 1981. Once again though, Norwich have a ten game unbeaten away streak to maintain and after what happened against Middlesbrough last week that’s a potential banana skin. Wild guess: Rotherham win, making the points deduction irrelevant.

If there’s anything to update, it’ll be on Sunday as I’m on Uncle duty tomorrow. However, I’ll be back early next week with a rare Monday night football preview that could feature one of the most unlikely promotions ever.

Game of the Week: Norwich v Middlesbrough

I really don’t want to start yet another post with a discussion about how tight things are at the top so at the risk of annoying Derby fans,  even though the rams beat Blackpool 4-0 during the week, results elsewhere meant last season’s defeated playoff finalists won’t be going up automatically.

This evening there’s a huge game at Carrow Road (Sky Sports 1, 7;45 kick off), notably because it’s the last game this season between the current top six. Norwich are undefeated against their immediate rivals at home, whilst Middlesbrough have been pretty ropey on their travels against the same teams; three defeats in four games with their only goal coming at Derby last month.

The Canaries also seem to have the advantage of playing two of the strugglers in their games following this one but don’t let that fool you. Four of Norwich’s nine defeats in the Championship have been against teams in the bottom half of the table, including a brace against Reading. City travel to Rotherham next weekend in a game that could also be significant for the Millers, but I’d be worried if I was a Canaries fan. A five game unbeaten streak and only one defeat in fifteen indicates another loss is coming soon.

Boro have been goalshy generally on the road this season, failing to score in nine outings this season and only picking up three points in those games. As I mentioned earlier, their away form against the other promotion candidates has been poor but their recent performances on the road also haven’t been much to write home about. Five defeats in the last six (including at Reading and Forest) doesn’t augur well for this evening, especially as Boro have only won once in the league at Carrow Road since November 1997, although they have drawn half of their last ten trips to Norfolk.

Verdict: I can’t see middlesbrough winning this one, but with both Bournemouth and Watford not playing until tomorrow afternoon, a draw would be a potential disaster for both teams if they want to win automatic promotion.

Tuesday night’s game at the New Den was eventful wasn’t it! More red cards than goals and a rare home win for the Milwall. That result means that the only significant game at the bottom is Wigan v Brighton. If the Latics lose, that’s it; they’ve only lost two of their five meetings with the Seagulls in Lancashire since the sides met for the first time in October 1987 but as mentioned earlier this week, Wigan have been terrible at home. It doesn’t help that the only aspect of Brighton’s performance that’s recognisable from last season is their stingy away defence – they’ve only conceded three fewer goals than Bournemouth on their travels.

As for the FA Cup, I simply can’t see Reading stopping Arsenal. Without wanting to dust off the old cliches one more time, although it’s about time a second tier team won the competition again, Reading simply don’t fit the profile. Southampton, Sunderland and West Ham were all amongst the better second tier sides during the seasons they won the FA Cup in the mid to late 1970s and early 1980s, which isn’t something that The Royals can claim this season; just one win in their last ten and on course for their worst league position since they were promoted from the third tier in 2002 isn’t exactly the stuff cup winners are made of. Their 1927 counterparts had won the old Third Division South during the previous season and – apart from knocking out Manchester United in the third round – didn’t have a particularly tough set of games. This season’s Royals have had a similar run; Arsenal are the first team they’ve met from a higher division and Reading have never beaten the gunners in any competition.

There may not be any updates on Saturday if there’s anything to report, as I’m attending a very significant game…

Game of the Evening: Millwall v Wigan

After last weekend, we’re still no clearer about who will be playing in the promised land next season, but I’m going to rule out any of the sides outside the top four for automatic promotion. Derby are six points off the pace with twelve points left to play for and the situation is similar for Ipswich, Brentford and Wolves.

Of course, things could change but I don’t think they will. For what it’s worth, I’ve still got Bournemouth winning the title by a point but Norwich and Watford are practically inseperable after that.

At the bottom, the situation took an unexpected turn yesterday morning when the Football League confirmed that Rotherham loanee Farrend Rawson should not have played against Brighton on Easter Monday. Rotherham are still seven points clear of Wigan and Millwall, but it remains to be seen what punishment the Millers will receive for what appears to be an administrative oversight. I doubt very much if there’ll be a points deduction, but stranger things have happened.

It’s with much rejoicing that this is the last midweek programme of the season. I don’t like them at all; for all the talk of a ‘winter break’, one of the other aspects that is often ignored is how European club sides play fewer games anyway. There are only usually one or two catch up midweek games a month in the top divisions and the only second tier competition comparable in volume to the Championship is Serie B, which has two fewer clubs, starts in August, finishes at the end of May and has a playoff final in the middle of June. Yet if anyone introduced the idea of reducing the championship to twenty or eighteen teams the clubs would be up in arms about the loss of revenue from six fewer games.

Anyway, the only game of any real consequence this evening is between Millwall and Wigan. Two years ago yesterday, they faced each other in an FA Cup semi final that Wigan won on their way to becoming the first club to win the FA Cup and be relegated in the same season. Next season these two may be facing each other in League One – if there’s a loser team tonight, they’re as good as down.

The Lions lost again at the weekend; since Christmas they’ve lost six of their ten home games and failed to score in half of them. At this stage last season they’d won three more points and had begun the eight game undefeated streak that saw them reach safety, but it looks incredibly unlikely that Millwall’ll repeat that feat this season. All of their remaining games after this one are against sides in the top half of the table. And in that classic indicator of a poor side, so far 26 different players have featured for Millwall this season and only veteran goalkeeper David Forde has been an ever present.

Wigan’s position is even more precarious. They’ve played one more game than Millwall and despite having only lost three of their ten away games since Christmas, their home form almost defies description. Their last home victory was at the end of August: since the start of December, the Latics have lost ten of their 12 games at the DW in the Championship and failed to score in eight of those contests. Then there are these rather bleak facts; in ten visits to Millwall since the early 1980s, Wigan have only ever won once. Leading scorer James McClean has almost twice as many yellow cards (11) than he has goals (6).

Unless there’s news about a possible promotion from League One later, I’ll be back on Friday. There’s a huge game at the top plus Reading attempt to reach the FA Cup Final for the first time.

Update: Bristol City have been promoted from League One after two seasons away. I’ll cover what happened at Millwall on Friday, but a home win and three red cards made it an eventful evening in Bermondsey…