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Game Of The Week: Leeds v Sheffield Wednesday

On Tuesday evening Philip Billing’s goal eight minutes from time meant Huddersfield beat Reading, a result that means the Terriers are now only four points behind Brighton at the top of the table.

It’s a big weekend at both ends of the table and amazingly both the televised games on Saturday are crucial matches at the top of the table. The fun starts this evening when there’s a big game at the other end, where there’s only a six point gap between Blackburn and Wolves.

Burton Albion v Blackburn Rovers (this evening, no TV coverage)

After a run of five straight defeats at home, Burton have won their last two and have a reasonable looking run in at the Pirelli Stadium that starts with Rovers’ first game under Tony Mowbray, who was appointed after Owen Coyle was sacked earlier in the week and hasn’t exactly been the most successful manager at this level.

He’s got his work cut out for him: Blackburn have won once in their last ten aways but haven’t earned all three points at any of the sides in the bottom half of the table at the moment. Considering only four of the 21 games between the teams currently in the bottom six have ended in away wins, Blackburn are clearly on the back foot here.

Leeds United v Sheffield Wednesday (12:30pm, Sky Sports 1)

There hasn’t been a draw in any of the 16 Yorkshire derbies so far this season, which may be significant considering this is Leeds’ last one of the season. Gary Monk’s side has only suffered two defeats at Elland Road in the last ten but United have only won two of their six games against the top six and that may be worth remembering when the playoffs come round. Wednesday were surprisingly beaten by Brentford at Hillsborough this week: they still have to travel to Barnsley and Rotherham before the season ends. Since the turn of the century, Wednesday have only won once at Leeds in six league games, but the last three have all finished 1-1. If this does finish as a draw, don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Newcastle United v Bristol City

This could be the most one sided game in the Championship this weekend, but there are a couple of things to take into account. Four of Newcastle’s seven defeats have been against sides currently in the bottom half of the table – including both games against Blackburn – but in five of those losses, the current leaders have failed to score.

On the other hand, Bristol City haven’t kept an away clean sheet since September and haven’t scored in a league game at Newcastle since November 1977. One of those problems is down to Lee Johnson – who has seems to be immune from the sack – the other isn’t.

Brighton v Reading (5:30pm, Sky Sports 1)

This is another one that might not go the way it’s supposed to. Brighton’s thirteen game unbeaten run at the Amex will have to end soon but Reading will have only had four days rest after the defeat at Huddersfield on Tuesday night. That loss means that the Royals have now lost all of their away games to the teams immediately above them.

Albion have been really impressive at home in so many ways: only one home defeat, only Newcastle and Norwich have scored more goals at home and only nine goals conceded in 15 games, including eight clean sheets. But here’s the weird part: Brighton have only recorded two home victories against Reading in the last ten meetings and there were fourteen years between them.

Another thing worth noting: the reverse fixture finished 2-2 and so far is the only draw in games between the current top six this season.

The remaining televised games are a couple of derbies that will probably have little or no impact on the rest of the season: Wolves v Birmingham (tonight, 7:45pm Sky Sports 1) and The Old Farm Derby (Sunday, noon, Sky Sports 2)

I’ll be back on Tuesday for the clash between the top two.

Huddersfield Town Are The Real Deal

Huddersfield certainly stepped up to the challenge of having two games in four days against other promotion contenders – they won both, with Sunday’s game against Leeds finishing in dramatic fashion:

What the clip doesn’t show is the fracas between David Wagner and Garry Monk after Wagner returned to the technical area. Both clubs face FA charges relating to being unable to control their players.

I’m also happy to admit that I wasn’t entirely convinced by Huddersfield’s early season form but I’m happy to change my mind. If either Brighton or Newcastle slip up, then the Terriers have proved that they can take advantage…it’s a big if though.

With three Yorkshire clubs in the playoff spots, we’re primed for a very exciting end to the season, but this weekend, our attention shifts to the bottom of the table. There are three games featuring four of the bottom six clubs:

Brighton v Burton Albion

The hosts haven’t lost at home since September and until last weekend Brighton hadn’t conceded more than two goals since December 2015, so it would be a real shock if Burton took three points at the Amex. The Brewers beat Wolves last weekend to record their second win in three games, but they’ve not won consecutive games this season and this looks beyond them.

QPR v Huddersfield Town

I’ve long been of the opinion that former players and/or manager that return to the scene of their former glories will inevitably fail to recreate them and it looks as if Ian Holloway is going to learn that the hard way – unlike Nigel Clough. Rangers nose dive down the table began before Ian Holloway returned, but his record since his re-appointment they’ve picked up 14 points from 14 games, which is a worse record than Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink compiled during his tenure at Loftus Road.

I don’t think I need to point out how good Huddersfield are at the moment.

Rotherham United v Blackburn Rovers

The Millers – who are now mathematically out of the playoffs – have lost their last four games without scoring, so I’m focusing on Blackburn here. There have been some signs of life recently – Rovers have only lost twice in their last half dozen outings – but despite wins at Derby and Newcastle earlier this season, they’ve been poor on the road and have already lost without scoring at both Bristol City and Wigan. One major positive for the visitors: they’ve beaten Rotherham in four of the last five league meetings.

Televised games: Sheffield Wednesday v Birmingham City (this evening, kickoff 7:45pm Sky Sports 1) would have been a good one before Gary Rowett was sacked, but with the Blues having apparently dropped out of playoff contention it’s not as much of a thrilling prospect. Wolves host Newcastle tomorrow (5:30pm, Sky Sports 1) but it’s in direct competition with Wales v England in the Six Nations and can’t really compete as a spectacle.

There won’t be a post about the midweek programme next Tuesday as it’s both Valentine’s Day and half term – and as my wife is a teacher, I think I’ve got a decent excuse.

FA Cup Third Round Preview

Just a quick look this time round as I’ve had some technical issues as well as a hacking cough for most of the last two weeks.

As I’ve been fond of repeating for the last few seasons, we’re lucky if half of the clubs in the Championship qualify for the fourth round and having not had a second tier winner for almost 40 years, there’s no point expecting one in 2016/17.

Championship v Premier League

Considering that six of the eight ties in this category involve the Championship teams travelling to clubs in the Promised Land, I can’t see much hope for an early upset. Sheffield Wednesday visit Middlesbrough in what could be a very competitive game and the Midlands derby between West Brom and…errr…Derby should be worth keeping an eye on, but does anyone genuinely fancy Burton, Reading or Preston causing upsets?

All Championship

With only four guaranteed places in the next round, there’s a chance that whoever takes their opportunities now may stand a chance of reaching the last sixteen. For that reason, Birmingham v Newcastle is potentially the tie of the round in this category: on the other hand, neither Wigan nor Nottingham Forest will want to hang around in the FA Cup if they’re serious about avoiding the drop.

Championship v League One

In one of those quirks of fate that happens when the draw is made, all four of the ties in this category have the Championship clubs at home. I can’t see Brighton or Huddersfield having much trouble with MK Dons and Port Vale respectively, but there’s a possibility that Bristol City and Rotherham might find Fleetwood or Oxford too much to handle.

There’s only one game where a Championship club takes on one from League 2: Barnsley travel to Blackpool. On paper, both of the ties between sides from the Championship and non-league teams ought to be straightforward for both Brentford and Ipswich, although neither Eastleigh or Lincoln are mugs.

Televised games: Manchester United v Reading (BT Sport 1, 12:30pm tomorrow), Preston v Arsenal (BT Sport 1, 5:30pm tomorrow) and Spurs v Aston Villa (BBC 1, 4:00pm Sunday). The draw for the fourth round will be on Monday, I’ll probably update as the weekend progresses and I’ll be back next week.

Update: Leeds, Fulham, Brentford, Brighton, Huddersfield, Blackburn, Wolves, Derby and Wigan all won at the first time of asking over the weekend. Birmingham, Newcastle, Barnsley, Bristol City, Ipswich (against Lincoln!) and Norwich all face replays, so there are currently ten guaranteed places for Championship clubs in the fourth round.

So far the only confirmed fourth round ties involving Championship teams are:

Fulham v Hull, Chelsea v Brentford, Rochdale v Huddersfield, Derby v Leicester and Manchester United v Wigan. If Ipswich win at Lincoln in the replay, they’ll host Brighton in the next round and if Barnsley beat Blackpool in their replay they’ll travel to Blackburn.

I’ll be back on Thursday, in time for the Reading/QPR clash that evening.

2016 Sky Bet Championship Christmas Preview

I’m going to kick off this post with the news that Gary Rowett was sacked as Birmingham boss on Wednesday for no other apparent reason than the new Chinese owners wanted Gianfranco Zola to take over at St. Andrew’s. The Blues are currently eighth in the table, one point away from the top six: this is a classic case of something I’ve moaned about for years, so apart from registering my sympathy with Blues fans and being pretty sure that Zola – who hasn’t managed in the Championship for three years and has been sacked from his last two jobs – won’t last a full year.

Long term readers – if there are any – will know that how the table looks on Boxing Day usually has a profound impact on the rest of the season. The year I’m a bit pushed for time so I’m only going to look back at the past five seasons rather than the last ten, but even then the correlation between the table on December 26th and the final table is remarkable. Here are the highlights:

In four of the last five seasons, the team that was top of the table on Boxing Day was promoted – although not necessarily as Champions. Derby were top of the table on December 26th 2015 but eventually finished fifth.
In four of the last five seasons, three teams that were in the top six after the Boxing Day programme was complete were eventually promoted. Norwich were seventh on 26/12/14 but won the playoff final.
The club that is bottom of the table at the end of Boxing Day has been relegated in the last five seasons.
In three of the last five seasons, the clubs that were eventually relegated were already in the bottom six positions. In 2012/13 Wolves were 14th on Boxing Day but were eventually relegated after losing four of their last six matches: Portsmouth were relegated at the end of 2011/12 following their points deduction in February 2012 – they were 17th on Boxing Day 2011.

If we assume that those conditions won’t change substantially this season, then we have something of a problem making the rest of 2016/17 interesting. Either Brighton and Newcastle will be first or second on Boxing Day and considering that only two of the ten clubs in those positions have failed to go on to win promotion after occupying those slots at the end of December 26th, then we already have a good idea who will be playing in the Premier League next season.

At the bottom, Rotherham cannot overtake Wigan before December 26th, so I’m afraid going to have to write them off. That leaves two relegation spots and the key stat here seems to be that 13 of the 15 clubs relegated in the last five seasons had been either 20th or lower in the table on 26/12. In this respect, Wigan look as if they’re in trouble too but then it gets very murky. Considering only six points separate the Latics from QPR at the moment, it’s fair to say that one bad run of form could see any of the remaining clubs in the bottom seven playing in League One next season.

So does all of that really mean that the rest of the season is going to be about who wins the playoff final and who is relegated with Rotherham?

What to watch out for over Christmas:

Nottingham Forest could have a big impact on the Christmas programme: they host Wolves and Huddersfield before travelling to Newcastle.

Rotherham entertain Wigan and Burton after their local derby with Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday, but even if they win both of those home games the Millers still have a mountain to climb if they want to save themselves from relegation.

Blackburn have to play two of the current top six over the next week, with a trip to Barnsley in between.

Gianfranco Zola will go straight in at the deep end with Birmingham: Brighton on Saturday followed by a trip to Derby on Boxing Day – both of which will be televised (see below).

Here are the games to watch out for over the festivities, those in italic are televised, the others are significant matches between the current top/bottom six:

Saturday 17th December

Burton v Newcastle

Blackburn v Reading

Birmingham v Brighton (kick off 5:30pm, Sky Sports 1)

Sunday 18th December

QPR v Aston Villa (kick off 12:00pm, Sky Sports 2)

Monday 26th December

Rotherham v Wigan

Newcastle v Sheffield Wednesday (7:45pm, Sky Sports 1)

Tuesday 27th December

Brighton v QPR (12:30pm, Sky Sports 1)

Derby v Birmingham (3:00pm, Sky Sports 1)

Thursday 29th December

Aston Villa v Leeds (7:45pm, Sky Sports 1)

Rotherham v Burton

Friday 30th December

Brighton v Cardiff

Saturday 31st December

Huddersfield v Blackburn (12:30pm)

Derby v Wigan

Brentford v Norwich (5:30pm, Sky Sports 1)

I may very well be able to post updates but the next scheduled post will appear either on the last Thursday or Friday of this month. So I’d like to thank you all for reading and wish you a Happy Christmas!

Game Of The Evening: Leeds v Reading

Welcome to what is apparently my 400th post for Buzzin’ Championship Football. As a bonus, here’s Sol Bamba ‘losing his head’ last weekend, which seems to be part two of an occasional series titled ‘Championship Players Losing It And Attacking Their Comrades’.

The top three won’t change whatever the outcome of tonight’s games, although on paper Brighton have a chance of overtaking Newcastle at the summit. Although Rotherham won on Saturday for the first time since August, they’re still eight points behind Wigan although any of the clubs from QPR downwards could find themselves in the bottom three after this evening’s games have finished.

Game of the evening: Leeds United v Reading

OK, I didn’t see this coming. Both sides have done far better than I expected before the season began, so credit where it’s due to both Garry Monk and Jaap Staam.

Leeds’ only home defeat since mid-September was against Newcastle so there’s no shame there, but they’ve only won one of the last six games at Elland Road against this evening’s opponents. On the other hand, United have a very poor record in games against the other five teams in the top six, having lost all four of their matches without scoring: that’s an indication that they may be due for a change in fortunes fairly soon.

From Reading’s point of view, it depends which team turns up: they’ve won half of their last six aways, but suffered heavy defeats at both Brentford and Fulham in the same time span. At least this evening’s game isn’t being played in West London, but Reading were also tonked 4-1 at Newcastle earlier in the season, so if they concede an early goal things might not go their way.

Blackburn Rovers v Brighton

Rovers aren’t doing too badly at home against teams in the bottom half of the table and having won at both Newcastle and Derby this season, they look like one of those teams that are capable of raising their game against good opponents. Brighton are enjoying a 14 game unbeaten streak that will have to end soon, but since the turn of the century they’ve not been beaten by Blackburn in any competition.

Burton Albion v Huddersfield Town

I’ll return to the subject on Friday, but Burton’s season may be defined by how they do over the Christmas period. Their home form is fine, but this game is arguably the first real test they’ve had at the Pirelli Stadium since they beat on out of sorts Derby in September. The Terriers got back to winning ways on Saturday when they beat Bristol City last weekend, but Huddersfield have lost four of their last six road trips and have already lost twice against teams in the bottom six.

Cardiff City v Wolverhampton Wanderers

Neil Warnock’s recipe for avoiding relegation is to rely almost entirely on home form and to some extent it’s working at Cardiff (one defeat in the last six in the Welsh capital) so it’ll be interesting to see how the Bluebirds approach this one. Wolves have only lost twice in their last six away games and although I don’t think the visitors can win, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this ended all square.

Tomorrow: Wigan Athletic v Newcastle United

Newcastle returned to winning ways with an emphatic 4-0 win over Birmingham at the weekend and I can’t see them tripping up at the DW Stadium this evening. Will Grigg’s 88th minute winner against Wolves on September 27th remains the last time a Wigan player scored a goal in a home game in the Championship, although I have to point out that Wigan have won six of the previous seven meetings in the league in Lancashire. If the Latics win tomorrow night, it’s a contender for surprise result of the season.

Back on Friday for the Christmas Special, which usually writes itself.