Category: QPR

FA Cup Fifth Round Special

No apologies for ignoring this weekend’s truncated programme in the Championship, although I must admit I’ve got my doubts about how many  – if any – teams from the second tier will make it into the draw on Monday evening.

Huddersfield Town v Manchester City (Saturday 3pm, no TV coverage)

It’s almost 30 years since these clubs last met in the competition and although Huddersfield have never beaten City in the FA Cup, the visitors haven’t faced an important Champions League game a few days after one of their previous meetings. Then again, Huddersfield haven’t been chasing promotion from the second tier for a while either – but they have reached this stage twice in the last decade.

The Terriers victory over Port Vale in the Third Round was their first victory in a home cup tie since they beat Dover Athletic six years ago, but Huddersfield have only lost twice at the John Smith’s Stadium in the Championship this season and they’ll be hoping that City may have their mind on other things. I think the best that David Wagner’s side can hope for is a replay: it’s worth remembering that Town haven’t reached the Sixth Round since the early 1970s.

Wolves v Chelsea (Saturday 5:30pm, BT Sport 2)

After their heroics at Anfield in the last round, I’m afraid that this looks a step too far for Wolves. The hosts haven’t won a home FA Cup tie at Molineux since beating Doncaster Rovers 5-0 in 2011: since then they’ve lost four on the bounce and their only win in the FA Cup against Cheslea was in January 1928. Then there’s the fact that Wolves have only won twice at home in the league since the start of October: this could get very one sided very quickly.

Fulham v Spurs (Sunday 2:00pm, BBC1)

If I had to pick a surprise winner this weekend it would have to be in this game.

There have been four meetings between this sides in the competition since the turn of the century, the most recent was at Craven Cottage was January 2011 when Fulham won 4-0. That result was never in doubt after Spurs had Michael Dawson sent off either side of a pair Danny Murphy penalties. Fulham’s 4-1 triumph over Hull in the last round was their first triumph in a home FA Cup tie for three years; the Cottagers have won four of their last six home games in the Championship but have conceded in five of those matches and that doesn’t bode well.

Blackburn Rovers v Manchester United (Sunday 4:15pm, BT Sport 2)

The holders play another struggling Championship team and I’d be amazed if United don’t stroll to another victory, although history buffs might want to point out that all but one of the previous eight meetings between the sides in the FA Cup happened before World War II and Blackburn only lost once. Having said that, the last meeting in the Cup was at Ewood Park in Feburary 1985, the season when United beat Everton in the final despite having Kevin Moran sent off.

Rovers have won half of their last six FA Cup ties at Ewood Park but the victory against Blackpool in the last round was the first time they hadn’t faced Premier League opposition in a home cup tie for four years. Although Rovers beat QPR at home a fortnight ago, they haven’t won consecutive games at home this season.

There’s nothing much going on this weekend, although there are a couple of interesting games at either end of the table next week, so I’ll update as we go along and I think there may be a short preview post on Tuesday.

Update: the weekend went pretty much as I thought it might. Fulham and Wolves lost without scoring, Blackburn took the lead at Ewood Park but lost and Huddersfield held Manchester City to a scoreless draw at home. The draw – which was made on Sunday evening – means that if the Terriers can win the replay, they’ll travel to Middlesbrough.

A Busy Weekend For Huddersfield

Back to the league after last week’s disastrous showing in the FA Cup.

As I’ve got another family commitment this weekend, I’ve only got time for a short post – but the main issue is that Huddersfield have got to play twice in four days and both of their games are against promotion rivals.

Huddersfield v Brighton (this evening, 7:45pm, Sky Sports 1)

Town have a couple of games in hand over most of the other promotion contenders – except Brighton, who have earned 11 points over the same number of matches as the Terriers. Although the hosts have only lost twice at home this season, their next three scheduled games at the John Smith’s Stadium are against teams above them, starting with this one. Brighton shouldn’t expect to have it their own way this evening: they’ve only recorded three wins at Huddersfield in the last sixteen years and lost 7-1 in August 2009.

Saturday’s games include two that will have an impact at both ends of the table:

Newcastle v Derby

It’ll be interesting to see how Newcastle do after Ciaran Clarke’s late own goal earned QPR a share of the points at St. James’ Park last night. The Toon are still firm favourites to go up, but have only won half of their last six home matches. Last weekend’s win at Ipswich was Derby’s first away victory since mid-December: the Rams have only won one of their last 13 games at Newcastle.

Bristol City v Rotherham

Having seemingly steadied the ship against Sheffield Wednesday earlier this week, the hosts go into this one look for their first home win since the start of December. Rotherham have lost all but one of their away games this season and haven’t scored on the road since Joe Newell gave the Millers the lead at Fulham in mid-December.

Then on Sunday, it’s time for Huddersfield to entertain Leeds. Pontus Jansson’s dramatic late winner at Blackburn last night gave United their first away win sin Boxing Day and this season they’ve won both of the Yorkshire derbies where they’ve been the visitors. Leeds have only three of their last ten visits to Huddersfield for league games, but Huddersfield have only won once in the last five meetings.

Other televised games:

Wigan v Sheffield Wednesday (tomorrow, 7:45pm, Sky Sports Mix), Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa (Saturday, 5:30pm, Sky Sports Mix)

I’ll be back next week with a longer post, enjoy the weekend. I’m going to be in Stevenage for my sister in law’s 40th…

Game of the Week: Brighton v Sheffield Wednesday

I’ve long been a believer that although the Championship is capable of producing some surprising results in individual games, overall the table doesn’t lie – and despite defeats for Brighton at Preston and Norwich at Rotherham, we go into this weekend with the situation at the top more or less as it was.

Seeing as though Brighton won’t lose that many games this season and Preston did so well against Arsenal in the FA Cup, here’s the highlights – with commentary for a change – from last weekend’s game at Deepdale:

Last week’s game of the week finished in a  2-0 win for Sheffield Wednesday, although the score was 1-0 when Huddersfield‘s Jack Payne was dismissed for a rash challenge on Sam Hutchinson with twenty minutes left…which brings me nicely round to the game of the week: remarkably, it’s being televised.

Brighton v Sheffield Wednesday (this evening, 7:45pm Sky Sports 1 HD)

Last week’s defeat at Preston was the first away reverse for Chris Houghton’s side since losing at Newcastle at the end of August, but the Seagulls haven’t lost at the Amex since September, have kept clean sheets in eight of their twelve games this season and – according to the bookies – are nailed on for automatic promotion. The only apparent weaknesses in their home form is that they need to score more goals in the first half of their games and seem to be vulnerable defensively in the first 30 minutes.

Wednesday are a little bit easier to analyse. Despite winning without conceding a goal at both Newcastle and Huddersfield this season, they’ve struggled defensively against other sides currently in the top half of the table and they’ve average just less than one goal per game on the road, having only scored twice in one of their games away from Hillsborough this season. To put that into perspective, four of the current bottom six have scored more away goals than Wednesday have, which is one of the reasons that although they’re one of the better teams in the Championship, they aren’t one of the best.

Wednesday’s last win at Brighton was in the first game of the 2014/15 season, when Albion were ‘managed’ by Sami Hyppia and only finished six points clear of the relegation zone. This season, exactly half of the sixteen games between the current top six have ended in home wins and although I’m not expecting lots of goals later on, I’d be surprised if Brighton lost at home – although they are due another reverse at the Amex soon.

Honourable mention:

Nottingham Forest v Bristol City

I am on record as saying that Forest looked like strugglers before the season began and so it’s no surprise to me that they’ve performed exactly as I thought they would, even down to appointing – and then sacking – Phillipe Montanier. Furthermore, the unsuccessful takeover of the club seems to have been the last straw with the fans, who were also less than delighted when news broke that Henri Lansbury will probably be leaving. His move to Aston Villa hadn’t been confirmed when I posted this, but I expect it will have been when you read this.

Bristol City have been in free fall since October, having lost twelve of their last fifteen games – which includes blowing leads in four of those matches. So far this season several other clubs in the Football League have sacked managers that haven’t done as badly as Lee Johnson recently, so there must be something about him that the City board sees that the rest of us don’t.

Head to head: Forest have only lost two of their last ten home games in the league against City, but those defeats have come in the last three meetings – and the visitors haven’t lost to a team below them this season.

Televised games: QPR v Fulham (Saturday, 12:30pm) which confirms my theory that Sky Sports are incredibly lazy: the production team will be in the pub by 3:00pm. However Barnsley v Leeds (Saturday 5:30pm) will be an absolute cracker.

Back to the FA Cup again next week, so I’ll see you then.

Game of the Week: Sheffield Wednesday v Huddersfield

Before I go any further, in case you haven’t heard, former Aston Villa, Lincoln City, Watford, Wolves and England manager Graham Taylor died today.

News of Mr Taylor’s death emerged as I was finishing this post, which is an early one as Reading are entertaining QPR this evening (8:00pm kick off, Sky Sports 1) although if the last ten meetings between them in Berkshire are anything to go by, the visitors won’t win and there won’t be many goals.

Looking back at Christmas, the following points are worth passing on:

  • Newcastle were in pole position on Boxing Day, but after two defeats in their last three games, Brighton have take over the lead and now have a two point lead at the top. Right now, I can’t see any outside those two for automatic promotion.
  • Reading, Huddersfield and Leeds have all made big improvements since last season whereas Sheffield Wednesday have maintained last season’s level. With three of the four playoff teams coming from Yorkshire, the rest of the season could be intense – starting with this weekend’s game of the week.
  • Rotherham were five points adrift of Wigan on Boxing Day and I think both clubs will continue to struggle. It’s not abundantly clear who else looks likely for the drop though: Blackburn look most likely to drop out of the section at the moment, but both Bristol City and Nottingham Forest are struggling badly at the moment and could end up flirting with disaster.

In managerial news, no-one got the chop over Christmas although Paul Warne still hasn’t been confirmed as manager of Rotherham despite having had a favourable impact on and off the field since he took over from Kenny Jackett on a part time basis.

On to the game of the week:

Sheffield Wednesday v Huddersfield (3:00pm Saturday)

With the clubs being separated by four points and 30 miles, the twelfth Yorkshire derby of the season should be a cracker.

Having only won two of the five games they’ve played against the teams immediately above them, this isn’t exactly a gimmee for Wednesday. Although they’re currently on a four game unbeaten streak at Hillsborough and haven’t conceded a goal for 278 minutes, Huddersfield haven’t lost on the road since mid-November and have conceded just two goals in their last four aways.

Head to head: the clubs have met eight times in the league at Hillsborough since the turn of the century, but Wednesday have only won two of those games including the last meeting in November 2015. Despite the recent defensive prowess of both teams, there’s a chance that this one could feature some goals, but you’ll have to read to the end of the next paragraph to understand why.

Bonus fun facts: none of the previous Yorkshire derbies this season have ended in a draw and there’s only been one undecided match between the protagonists in the last eight games at Hillsborough – when Jordan Rhodes scored all four goals for Huddersfield in a 4-4 draw just over five years ago. Also, only one of the fifteen games between the current top six has ended in a draw: Reading v Brighton in August.

Honourable Mention:

Burton v Wigan

After a solid start at the Pirelli Stadium, the wheels have come off recently. Burton have lost their last three at home and their lack of a proven goalscorer at this level should be something Nigel Clough addresses during what’s left of the transfer window. Wigan have only lost two of their last ten away games in the division but their home form has been bad enough to keep them in the bottom six for almost the entire season. The only other league meeting between the clubs at Burton took place last April when both sides were pushing for promotion and finished all square.

Other televised games: there are only five points between Leeds and Derby (tomorrow, 7:45pm, Sky Sports 1) so that looks like a decent game to watch. Remarkably, Wolves have never played Aston Villa at Molineux in a second tier game (Saturday, 5:30pm, Sky Sports 1) but the occasion will be overshadowed by the death of Graham Taylor, who managed both of the clubs during his career and was in charge at Villa Park when Aston Villa last played at this level. RIP.

2016 Sky Bet Championship Christmas Preview

I’m going to kick off this post with the news that Gary Rowett was sacked as Birmingham boss on Wednesday for no other apparent reason than the new Chinese owners wanted Gianfranco Zola to take over at St. Andrew’s. The Blues are currently eighth in the table, one point away from the top six: this is a classic case of something I’ve moaned about for years, so apart from registering my sympathy with Blues fans and being pretty sure that Zola – who hasn’t managed in the Championship for three years and has been sacked from his last two jobs – won’t last a full year.

Long term readers – if there are any – will know that how the table looks on Boxing Day usually has a profound impact on the rest of the season. The year I’m a bit pushed for time so I’m only going to look back at the past five seasons rather than the last ten, but even then the correlation between the table on December 26th and the final table is remarkable. Here are the highlights:

  • In four of the last five seasons, the team that was top of the table on Boxing Day was promoted – although not necessarily as Champions. Derby were top of the table on December 26th 2015 but eventually finished fifth.
  • In four of the last five seasons, three teams that were in the top six after the Boxing Day programme was complete were eventually promoted. Norwich were seventh on 26/12/14 but won the playoff final.
  • The club that is bottom of the table at the end of Boxing Day has been relegated in the last five seasons.
  • In three of the last five seasons, the clubs that were eventually relegated were already in the bottom six positions. In 2012/13 Wolves were 14th on Boxing Day but were eventually relegated after losing four of their last six matches: Portsmouth were relegated at the end of 2011/12 following their points deduction in February 2012 – they were 17th on Boxing Day 2011.

If we assume that those conditions won’t change substantially this season, then we have something of a problem making the rest of 2016/17 interesting. Either Brighton and Newcastle will be first or second on Boxing Day and considering that only two of the ten clubs in those positions have failed to go on to win promotion after occupying those slots at the end of December 26th, then we already have a good idea who will be playing in the Premier League next season.

At the bottom, Rotherham cannot overtake Wigan before December 26th, so I’m afraid going to have to write them off. That leaves two relegation spots and the key stat here seems to be that 13 of the 15 clubs relegated in the last five seasons had been either 20th or lower in the table on 26/12. In this respect, Wigan look as if they’re in trouble too but then it gets very murky. Considering only six points separate the Latics from QPR at the moment, it’s fair to say that one bad run of form could see any of the remaining clubs in the bottom seven playing in League One next season.

So does all of that really mean that the rest of the season is going to be about who wins the playoff final and who is relegated with Rotherham?

What to watch out for over Christmas:

Nottingham Forest could have a big impact on the Christmas programme: they host Wolves and Huddersfield before travelling to Newcastle.

Rotherham entertain Wigan and Burton after their local derby with Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday, but even if they win both of those home games the Millers still have a mountain to climb if they want to save themselves from relegation.

Blackburn have to play two of the current top six over the next week, with a trip to Barnsley in between.

Gianfranco Zola will go straight in at the deep end with Birmingham: Brighton on Saturday followed by a trip to Derby on Boxing Day – both of which will be televised (see below).

Here are the games to watch out for over the festivities, those in italic are televised, the others are significant matches between the current top/bottom six:

 

Saturday 17th December

Burton v Newcastle

Blackburn v Reading

Birmingham v Brighton (kick off 5:30pm, Sky Sports 1)

Sunday 18th December

QPR v Aston Villa (kick off 12:00pm, Sky Sports 2)

Monday 26th December

Rotherham v Wigan

Newcastle v Sheffield Wednesday (7:45pm, Sky Sports 1)

Tuesday 27th December

Brighton v QPR (12:30pm, Sky Sports 1)

Derby v Birmingham (3:00pm, Sky Sports 1)

Thursday 29th December

Aston Villa v Leeds (7:45pm, Sky Sports 1)

Rotherham v Burton

Friday 30th December

Brighton v Cardiff

Saturday 31st December

Huddersfield v Blackburn (12:30pm)

Derby v Wigan

Brentford v Norwich (5:30pm, Sky Sports 1)

I may very well be able to post updates but the next scheduled post will appear either on the last Thursday or Friday of this month. So I’d like to thank you all for reading and wish you a Happy Christmas!