Category: Cardiff

Game Of The Evening: Leeds v Reading

Welcome to what is apparently my 400th post for Buzzin’ Championship Football. As a bonus, here’s Sol Bamba ‘losing his head’ last weekend, which seems to be part two of an occasional series titled ‘Championship Players Losing It And Attacking Their Comrades’.

The top three won’t change whatever the outcome of tonight’s games, although on paper Brighton have a chance of overtaking Newcastle at the summit. Although Rotherham won on Saturday for the first time since August, they’re still eight points behind Wigan although any of the clubs from QPR downwards could find themselves in the bottom three after this evening’s games have finished.

Game of the evening: Leeds United v Reading

OK, I didn’t see this coming. Both sides have done far better than I expected before the season began, so credit where it’s due to both Garry Monk and Jaap Staam.

Leeds’ only home defeat since mid-September was against Newcastle so there’s no shame there, but they’ve only won one of the last six games at Elland Road against this evening’s opponents. On the other hand, United have a very poor record in games against the other five teams in the top six, having lost all four of their matches without scoring: that’s an indication that they may be due for a change in fortunes fairly soon.

From Reading’s point of view, it depends which team turns up: they’ve won half of their last six aways, but suffered heavy defeats at both Brentford and Fulham in the same time span. At least this evening’s game isn’t being played in West London, but Reading were also tonked 4-1 at Newcastle earlier in the season, so if they concede an early goal things might not go their way.

Blackburn Rovers v Brighton

Rovers aren’t doing too badly at home against teams in the bottom half of the table and having won at both Newcastle and Derby this season, they look like one of those teams that are capable of raising their game against good opponents. Brighton are enjoying a 14 game unbeaten streak that will have to end soon, but since the turn of the century they’ve not been beaten by Blackburn in any competition.

Burton Albion v Huddersfield Town

I’ll return to the subject on Friday, but Burton’s season may be defined by how they do over the Christmas period. Their home form is fine, but this game is arguably the first real test they’ve had at the Pirelli Stadium since they beat on out of sorts Derby in September. The Terriers got back to winning ways on Saturday when they beat Bristol City last weekend, but Huddersfield have lost four of their last six road trips and have already lost twice against teams in the bottom six.

Cardiff City v Wolverhampton Wanderers

Neil Warnock’s recipe for avoiding relegation is to rely almost entirely on home form and to some extent it’s working at Cardiff (one defeat in the last six in the Welsh capital) so it’ll be interesting to see how the Bluebirds approach this one. Wolves have only lost twice in their last six away games and although I don’t think the visitors can win, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this ended all square.

Tomorrow: Wigan Athletic v Newcastle United

Newcastle returned to winning ways with an emphatic 4-0 win over Birmingham at the weekend and I can’t see them tripping up at the DW Stadium this evening. Will Grigg’s 88th minute winner against Wolves on September 27th remains the last time a Wigan player scored a goal in a home game in the Championship, although I have to point out that Wigan have won six of the previous seven meetings in the league in Lancashire. If the Latics win tomorrow night, it’s a contender for surprise result of the season.

Back on Friday for the Christmas Special, which usually writes itself.

 

FA Cup Third Round Draw

The draw was pretty harsh – only four guaranteed places in the fourth round, with eight teams drawn against Premier League opposition, six of whom will have to travel.

Championship v Premier League

Manchester United v Reading, Middlesbrough v Sheffield Wednesday, Norwich v Southampton, Preston v Arsenal, Stoke v Wolves, Spurs v Aston Villa, Watford v Burton, WBA v Derby

All Championship

Birmingham v Newcastle, Cardiff v Fulham, QPR v Blackburn, Wigan v Nottingham Forest

Championship v League 1

Brighton v Charlton or MK Dons, Huddersfield v Port Vale

Championship v League 2

Blackpool v Barnsley, Cambridge v Leeds

Championship v Non-League

Brenford v Eastleigh or Halifax, Ipwich v Lincoln

Championship v Teams Needing A Replay

Bristol City v Fleetwood/Shrewsbury, Rotherham v Macclesfield/Oxford

Back on Friday with the Market Reports.

Newcastle Lose Twice; Jackett Leaves Rotherham

Having rather brashly predicted that neither Huddersfield nor Newcastle would lose last week, I failed to heed my own advice about the Championship fairly predictable in the long term but very unpredictable on a weekly basis.

What I was not expecting was Kenny Jackett to walk away from the Rotherham job so quickly. I think this may be one of those cases where he may not have realised exactly what the state of the club was when he was offered the job – the Sheffield Star provides further insight here, the Yorkshire Post article is worth reading and you’ll find it here.

Anyway, here’s Newcastle’s third home defeat of the season – and if I’d have written a decent preview last week, I could have told you that Newcastle had lost four of their previous five home games in the league against Rovers.

This week the top two and the bottom six can’t change, but with only four points separating Barnsley and Cardiff, it would be a good time for some of the clubs in danger of slipping into the relegation zone to earn some points…

Blackburn v Huddersfield

Six meetings at Ewood Park since the start of the century, but Huddersfield won the last game in Lancashire in April; Rovers have only lost one of their last six at home, but Town have now lost five of their last six on the road and have conceded three or more goals in the last three of those games.

Burton v Rotherham

Four meetings all time at the Pirelli Stadium, but Burton’s only victory over the Millers came in League 2 game almost four years ago and they’ve not met since. Having written that, Albion haven’t lost at home since mid September and haven’t conceded a goal at home for almost five hours, which is hardly encouraging for Rotherham, who have been so dire this season that if they’re bottom on Boxing Day I’m not going to bother writing about them again.

Cardiff v Brighton

Last season’s meeting ended in a surprise 4-1 victory for the hosts, but since then the Bluebirds have only won seven of their seventeen league games in the Welsh capital and last weekend’s victory against Huddersfield was only their third home win in 2016/17. After a so-so start, Brighton’s recent away form has been very good: four wins in their last five aways with four clean sheets. Combine that with the fact that they’ve only lost three of their last ten trips to Cardiff for league games and you get the distinct impression that the hosts will remain in the bottom three tomorrow evening.

I’ll be back on Monday with the draw for the Third Round of the FA Cup, then the December market reports on Friday.

Something Different This Week

Only two games came to my attention this weekend and as I’d expect neither Newcastle nor Huddersfield will lose and the top two can’t be overtaken anyway, it’s time for a slightly different angle.

Looking at the current table, it’s interesting to see that some of the most interesting statistics seem to be clustered around just a few clubs – so I thought I’d take a detailed look at them.

I was initially sceptical about Newcastle’s chances this season, but that was before I realised exactly how good they are. This is already beginning to look like a masterclass in how to win the Championship: the present side are performing at the same level as the 2009/10 team that won the title by 11 points.

United have scored in all but one of their games at St James’ Park this season and have scored three or more goals in exactly half of their home outings but it’s their away record that’s astonishing. The season opening defeat at Fulham was their only defeat so far: since then they’ve won seven of their next eight games and have kept six clean sheets. To be quite frank, it does make you wonder how they got here in the first place.

In contrast, I’ve not been surprised by Aston Villa at all. Although they’re only five points away from the playoffs, they’re currently 13 behind Brighton, which at this point in time looks insurmountable. The big problem they’ve had this season is blowing leads in four of their five draws at Villa Park and two of their five ties on the road: their only away win this season was courtesy of an injury time penalty at Reading last month. That indicates to me that although they may be tough to beat, they’re currently nowhere near good enough to go up: if they don’t win promotion, it’ll be the longest period outside the top tier since the mid Seventies.

At the bottom, Cardiff have been beaten at home more times than any other club this season, which ties in nicely with their major regression from last season. Since promotion in 2003, the Bluebirds have only lost more than five home games in a season on three occasions. The last time they were relegated from this section – at the end of 1984/85 – they lost 13 games at Ninian Park. In fact, it won’t come as any surprise that they’d also lost five home games by the end of November 1984: they’ve been better at home since Neil Warnock took over at the start of last month, but the Bluebirds still have some work to do.

Wigan are in trouble largely due to having scored the fewest goals in front of their own fans: the Latics have been shut out in five of their eight home games this season.. Will Griggs’ 88th minute winner against Wolves at the end of September is the most recent goal at the DW Stadium: there have been four and half hours of football since then.  Ipswich are as bad at scoring away from home – they’ve scored four goals in eight games, half of which came at Sheffield Wednesday three weeks ago.

And then there’s Rotherham.

As I mentioned a few weeks ago, this is already an historically inept season for the Millers. They’ve lost all but one of their away fixtures this season and would have won the other one if they’d not conceded an injury time equaliser at Ipswich. Opponents have scored at least twice in all games so far. Their post-war record for goals conceded in away games was 57 in 1957/58, when they finished 18th in the old Second Division and avoided relegation by three points: the highlight of that campaign was an 8-0 defeat at West Ham in March. Additionally, they’re on course to break their own record of winning the fewest amount of points in the section since the second tier was renamed the Championship at the start of 2004/05. The Millers finished with 29 points at the end of that season: I’ve currently got them on target to finish with even fewer than that.

There’ll be a short preview of the League Cup quarter finals on Tuesday, but don’t forget that the draw for the Third Round of the FA Cup will be made on Monday 5th December.

 

 

Now Holloway Is Back

I’m not sure what to make of QPR continuing the retro feel of this season’s Sky Bet Championship. Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink’s departure on Guy Fawkes’ night was another indication that just because some clubs have played the odd season in the Premier League that they just simply need to turn up in order to be challenging for promotion. The appointment of Ian Holloway – who hasn’t managed anyone for almost two years – at Loftus Road was lauded by Rangers fans but by detached amusement by almost everyone else. Still, I’m sure he’s getting more money than he was when he was working for Sky Sports and I’m sure he’s got a few more of his homespun and entertaining anecdotes.

There are two confirmed appointments as well as Holloway’s return: Paul Lambert is now Wolves‘ boss and Warren Joyce is managing Wigan. Lambert has previous managerial experience in the Championship and could be a good fit for Wolves, but on the other hand Joyce hasn’t managed in the Football League since 2000 and looks like yet another gamble by a team that remains one of the favourites for relegation.

Back to this weekend. Newcastle and Brighton have a five point cushion over Huddersfield, any of the top half could reach the playoff spots this weekend, Rotherham are still bottom and any of the other five clubs in the bottom six could find themselves in the bottom three on Sunday morning.

A couple of games to keep an eye on this week, one tomorrow and one televised game on Sunday lunchtime:

Cardiff v Huddersfield

It didn’t take too long for the Warnock effect to wear off: the Bluebirds have lost their last two and have slipped back into the bottom four. They haven’t kept a home clean sheet since April and although Huddersfield have only won once in five trips to the Welsh capital since the start of the 21st century and have only one victory in their last five outings, the Terriers haven’t lost at any of the sides currently in the bottom half of the table.

Leeds v Newcastle (Sunday, Sky Sports 1, 1:15pm kick off)

After a nondescript start that saw rumours of Gary Monk’s imminent departure swirling in the wind, Leeds have now cracked the playoff places for the first time for almost three years on the back of a run that has seen them lose only twice in ten games. Although Chris Wood has scored five of their 13 goals in that period, it’s perfectly fine to use the old cliche that United are a team full of goals – seven other players have contributed to that tally, including an own goal from Wolves’ Silvio at Molineux in October. The only knock against them: at Elland Road this season, they’ve only beaten clubs currently in the bottom half and only Burton were defeated by more than one goal.

Newcastle haven’t lost on their travels since the first game of the season, but if they avoid defeat at Elland Road there’s a very good chance that they could finish this year without losing on the road – their next three aways are against teams at the wrong end of the table. Defensively, the Magpies are better away from St. James’ Park: five clean sheets in eight games so far -an opposition player hasn’t scored against them in an away game since Aaron Tshibola scored for Aston Villa at the end of September.

Astonishingly, this is the first league meeting between the clubs at Elland Road since August 2003 and you’ve got to go back to September 1999 for the last Leeds win in Yorkshire.

I’ll be back next Friday. I’ll be up North again for Christmas, so I’m not sure if there’ll be a post over the holiday or not yet. Don’t be too surprised if there isn’t.