Category: Hull City

Sky Bet Championship Play Off Final Preview

The match kicks off at 5:00pm on Saturday afternoon and the talking heads will be indulging in their usual breathless hyperbole from 4:00pm on Sky Sports 1. As I pointed out before last season’s game, there’s a 90% chance of the winners finishing in the bottom half of the Premier League next season and about an even chance they’ll be relegated – which exactly what happened to Norwich this season.

Anyway, I digress.

This will be the first ‘fourth v sixth’ final since 2009/10 (when Blackpool beat Cardiff) and only the second game featuring what we might call the ‘outsiders’ in the last decade.

Interestingly, the lower placed team at the end of the regular season has won four of the last ten finals -which might be good news for Hull fans but is counterbalanced by the fact the Tigers finished fourth. Although the Curse of Fourth was broken by QPR a couple of seasons ago, it’s still arguably the worst place to finish in the Championship if you’re seeking play off glory.

Before I launch into the team previews, it’s worth remembering that both finalists have failed to score in seven of the last ten finals, with six of those ten games producing under 2.5 goals. As we’ve got the second and fifth best defences in the Championship facing each other on Saturday, it wouldn’t surprise me if this is a low scoring game.

Hull City

Last ten away games: 4-1-5 (10-11)

Play off record (second tier only): winners 2008

Three of the last five Championship play off winners have been clubs that have been relegated at the end of the previous season, so that’s another reason to believe that Hull be involved in a battle to avoid relegation from the Premier League this time next year.

Hull have been a yo-yo club over the last decade: dangerously close to relegation from the Championship nine years ago, they’ve spent the last eight seasons either being in the race for promotion from the Championship or being not quite good enough to last more than two seasons in the Premier League.

My thinking about The Curse of Fourth had to change after QPR beat Derby a couple of seasons ago. Hull are one of the best fourth placed sides over the last decade: only Middlesbrough (last season) and Preston in 2005/06 are probably better and this season’s Hull team are performing at a better level than the team that won automatic promotion in a dramatic finale in May 2013.

Best comparison: West Ham, 2011/12. The Hammers had been relegated from the Premier League in May 2011, but were top of the table in February 2012 (at about the same time Portsmouth went into administration & Neil Warnock was appointed manager of Leeds) and then fell away after a sequence of seven draws in ten games. Hull last lead the division in February but dropped out of the automatic promotion places for good after they failed to win any of their next five games and almost blew their place in the final last week:

Strength: during the regular season, Hull were fantastic at the KC Stadium but that perception changed dramatically in the game you’ve just watched the highlights of.

Weakness: Fulham lost fewer away games than Hull in 2015/16 and for a team that’s one game away from the Premier League, losing at two of the three clubs that will be playing in League One in August is far from encouraging. The big problem for the Tigers was scoring on the road – although they scored three times against Derby in the first leg of the play offs, Hull haven’t scored more than twice in an away league game since they beat Sunderland 3-0 in a Boxing Day game in 2014. This season they lost every away game in the Championship they failed to score in.

Player to watch: Abel Hernandez. The Uruguayan is the definition of a striker who hasn’t been able to cut it at the very top but is lethal at second tier level. He was disappointing in Serie A for Palermo and didn’t do much in the Premier League in 2014/15: 21 goals this season is testament to his talent. He also has one big advantage over his Hull counterpart, but I’ll come to that in a minute.

Sheffield Wednesday

Away form: 3-4-3 (10-10)

Play off record (second tier only): début

Here’s how Wednesday clinched their place in the final – it’s a bit long if you’re a neutral, but at least it’s got some commentary with it.

The only other team to have jumped from 13th to a play off final in the last decade was the Burnley team of 2008/09 and although Wednesday were never outside the top ten from mid October, they were never better than fifth in the table for the rest of the season. That was their best finishing position in the second tier for 25 years, but it’s fair to say that this season’s Wednesday team is both not as good as the Ipswich side that finished sixth and lost to Norwich in last season’s semi finals and under Carlos Carvalhal they’ve clearly over achieved this season.

Best comparison: Nottingham Forest 2010/11. Forest earned a point more and had a slightly inferior goal difference that this season’s Wednesday side but were knocked out of the play offs by eventual winners Swansea and have had one top ten finish since.

Strength: home defence. Which is going to be irrelevant on Saturday evening.

Weakness: away form. Including the play off semi final draw at Brighton, Wednesday have still only won three of their last ten away games in the Championship, the last victory coming at Huddersfield at the start of April, also last time they kept an away clean sheet. They only beat two teams in the top half of the table and failed to beat any of the relegated sides away from home and only picked up one point from six against MK Dons.

Player to watch: Fernando Forestieri. There must be something in the water in Sheffield as the Argentinian striker has scored 15 goals this season, which is more than twice his previous best (at Watford two seasons ago) and one third of his total goals in a ten year career. However, there’s a problem: he’s not scored on the road since the start of April (Abel Hernandez has scored four in Hull’s last ten aways) and having seen him play in person this season, if you can isolate him he’ll lose interest very quickly.

Verdict: Wednesday need to stop Hull from scoring to have any chance of winning promotion back to the Premier League, but they’ve not kept an away clean sheet since April and with all due respect, Huddersfield aren’t the best team in the Championship. Hull have ‘been there and done that’, have recent Premier League experience and know what it’s like to both win and lose at Wembley: so it’s Hull for me. 

Hull 1-0 Sheffield Wednesday. Mohammed Diame’s 72nd minute goal means that the Tigers will back in the Premier League next season. I’ll be back at the start of July for the first of the previews for the 2016/17 season.

Update: Barnsley are back, 3-1 winners over Millwall in the League One final.

Play Off Round Up

It looks very much like a Hull v Sheffield Wednesday final after both semi finals were apparently decided on the basis of long term form.

Wednesday go into tonight’s second leg at Brighton (Sky Sports 1, 7:45pm kickoff) with a two goal lead, which mean the hosts have to win beat Sheffield Wednesday by three clear goals to go to Wembley – which they’ve managed once in 102 years. Furthermore, Wednesday have only lost by three goals once during the entire season.

The other semi final already looks beyond the reach of Derby. Hull City only lost once at home this season and conceded just under half a goal per game at the KC Stadium, so it would be extremely unlikely that the Rams will recover from that deficit. The game is being shown tomorrow night on Sky Sports 2, 7:45pm kick off.

As for who joins from League 1, it’ll probably be one of two clubs who aren’t exactly strangers to the Championship…

Update: Sheffield Wednesday are the first team through to the play off final after a 1-1 draw against Brighton at the Amex.

Hull will meet Sheffield Wednesday at Wembley after Derby almost pulled off a dramatic comeback at the KC Stadium this evening. Trailing by three goals, the Rams scored twice but a third eluded them.

The preview will be posted next Friday.

 

Sky Bet Championship Play Off Preview

It’s that time of year again.

I’ve already seen a couple of daft articles about ‘how to win the play offs’ as if it was some kind of mystery that Sherlock Holmes might have found impossible. The simplest way to win any football match is to score more goals than the opposition.

Anyway, since the second tier was rebranded as the Championship before the 2004/05 season, six of the 11 play off winners finished in third place after the end of the regular season, which indicates that it’s Brighton who may have a slight advantage. The curse of fourth was broken by QPR two years ago, but it’s five seasons since a sixth placed team won promotion to the Premier League at Wembley – and Blackpool were relegated to League Two on Sunday. From that point of view, Sheffield Wednesday fans may be the most likely to find themselves wishing what might have been at the end of the month.

In this season’s post season line up, we have two of the most improved teams in 2015/16 (Brighton and Wednesday), but looking at the four teams records against each other I think there’s a very strong possibility of low scoring games culminating in extra time and even penalties all the way through this competition.

So here’s the guide to this season’s runners and riders:

Brighton & Hove Albion

Last 10 Games: 7-3-0

2015/16 record against other play off teams: 1-5-0

Play off record (second tier only): Beaten finalists 1991, beaten semi finalists 2013 & 2014.

Last third place play off winner: Norwich 2014/15.

Unrecognisable from the team that struggled last season, but with the benefit of hindsight that’s because the right man for the job didn’t arrive until Chris Hughton took over from Sami Hyppia in December 2014 – Brighton have reached the play offs in three of the five seasons since they were promoted. The Seagulls are top of the 10 Game form table and have only lost one of their last ten away games and drew 0-0 at Sheffield Wednesday in November: recent performances have been better than their overall record this season, but Brighton will be missing Lewis Dunk and Dale Stephens due to suspensions for what can only be described as stupid acts of indiscipline. That factor alone could scupper their chances of reaching the top tier of English football for the first time for 34 years.

Derby County

Last 10: 5-3-2

2015/16 record against other play off teams: 2-4-0

Last 5th placed play off winner: Crystal Palace 2012/13

Play off record (second tier only): losing finalists 1992, 1994, 2014. Losing semi finalists: 2005.

Actually reached the play offs this season after the calamity of 2014/15 where a home defeat against Reading meant they dropped out of the top six altogether after leading the table as late as the end of February. Despite a dodgy start and a poor run of form at the start of 2016 that ultimately cost Paul Clement his job, the Rams haven’t been out of the play off places since October and although they’re performing at a slightly better level than in 2015/16 and beat Hull twice this season, they’ve only kept one clean sheet in their last ten away games.

Oh and their post season record is appalling.

Hull City

Last 10: 5-2-3

2015/16 record against other play off teams: 0-3-3

Last fourth place play off winner: QPR 2013/14

Play off record (second tier only): Winners 2008

As I mentioned above, the curse of fourth was broken by QPR in 2014, but the fact remains that Rangers have been the only fourth placed team that has won promotion since the start of the century – Bristol City finished fourth when Hull beat them eight years ago. That doesn’t look as if it’s going to change: the Tigers failed to beat any of the other three clubs that are involved in the play offs in 2015/16 and are playing at about the same level that saw them finish as runners up in 2013. This season there were three teams better than they were: their only home defeat this season was against Derby but they lost half of their last ten aways and that’s why they’re not already on the beach.

Sheffield Wednesday

Last 10: 5-3-2

2015/16 record against other play off teams: 0-6-0

Last sixth place play off winner: Blackpool 2009/10

Play off record (second tier only): debut.

Even though they’ve only lost once at home since the start of September, Wednesday’s inability to beat any of the other teams in the top seven is one of the reasons why they were never any higher than fifth during the regular season, even though this is their best league position since 1990/91. Another reason is their away form: three wins in their last ten games and no victory on the road since the start of April.

For that reason, I can’t help thinking that Wednesday might have a better chance of promotion next season, but might also be the most likely of the four teams qualifiers to suffer the obligatory hangover if they aren’t promoted.

Shefield Wednesday v Brighton (tomorrow, Sky Sports 1, kick off 7:45pm)

Four of the last six games in the league have ended all square but the Seagulls have only won two the last ten and have never won at Hillsborough. They don’t necessarily need to win tomorrow, but Wednesday do.

Derby v Hull (Saturday, Sky Sports 1, kick off 12:30pm)

Although Derby won both games this season, over the last ten league games between them there’s only been one draw and Hull have won all but one of the rest.

Verdict: of the four qualifiers, Hull have had the most success in the play offs and the most recent experience in the Premier League, so the club understand exactly what’s at stake here. Derby should be motivated by their defeat in the 2014 play off final and fit the profile of a team that finished outside the top six last season and have earned a second bite of the cherry. However, Brighton have been on a nomadic journey over the last 20 years and it may end in an emotional triumph at Wembley. A word of caution though: I’m awful at predicting the play offs.

All being well, there’ll be an update sometime on Sunday evening.

Game of the Week: Middlesbrough v Brighton

After 540 games the situation at the top of the Sky Bet Championship is set for a classic final day ending. Burnley can seal the title with a win at Charlton, but all eyes will be on the Riverside, where Middlesbrough entertain Brighton. Both games will be televised simultaneously at 12:30pm tomorrow: Charlton/Burnley is on Sky Sports 2 and Middlesbrough/Brighton is on Sky Sports 1.

There’s been enough hype this week already without extending it to this game and that’s probably just as well, because there’s every chance that it could be an anti-climax. The advantage is clearly with Middlesbrough as two of the possible outcomes tomorrow favour them. They’ve gone eight games without a home defeat and have kept a staggering 15 clean sheets at the Riverside this season; not only that, Boro have won all four of their other encounters on Teeside with the other clubs in the top six without conceding a goal.

Although Brighton are the underdogs tomorrow, they arrive in the North East having won five of their last six away games; the Seagulls haven’t lost on the road since their surprising defeat at Cardiff in mid-February. The big difference here is that although Brighton haven’t lost at any of the clubs in the top six, all four away games at Burnley, Derby, Hull and Sheffield Wednesday have been drawn. That won’t be good enough tomorrow.

What to watch for: since the start of 2016, Boro have scored 15 goals in the Championship at the Riverside, but just under half of those have been scored from the 76th minute onwards. Uruguayan midfielder Gaston Ramirez has scored five of those goals, but only one of them has been in that time frame.

Brighton have also scored 15 goals in their away games since New Year’s Day with Tomer Hemed weighing in with four, including a brace at MK Dons at the start of March. The Seagulls are normally at their most effective in front of goal at the start of the second half, but will be without Lewis Dunk in defence after his red card against Derby on Monday:

Verdict: Middlesbrough will want to put last year’s disappointment in the play off final behind them. Brighton need to win to overtake Boro, which is something they’ve managed three times in their last 10 visits in the league, the last victory coming in April 2013. I’d not be at all surprised if this was all square with fifteen minutes left before Boro nick it.

Of course, there are still a number of other issues in the Premier League and League One that will determine who will be playing in the Championship next season. If you want to see the situation in League One, please visit our companion blog at Buzzin League One Football, although I’m guessing I won’t be spoiling anything when I congratulate Wigan for returning to the competition after one season away.

The Premier League doesn’t finish until next weekend, so we won’t know who’ll be relegated with Aston Villa yet. We’ll know the play off schedule by 2:30pm tomorrow, so I’ll get a preview written ASAP but I’ve got to inform you that my wife’s birthday is next weekend and I’ll be unable to write individual previews for next weekend’s games although I should be able to post updates if I don’t get too caught up in the Eurovision Song Contest party that we’ve been invited to…

Game Of The Week: Sheffield Wednesday v Cardiff City

Due to -or perhaps because of – the Bank Holiday we’ve got games spread over four days.

I’ve decided I’m going to write a quick preview of Brighton v Derby in time for Monday’s game and concentrate on Saturday’s match that should confirm the identity of the last play off team.

There’s been a lot of hype about Cardiff visiting Sheffield Wednesday this weekend, but I’m not convinced that it’s as competitive as some of the experts seem to think. The visitors are in the classic ‘if…then…else’ scenario and need to overcome a six point difference with six points to play for. Wednesday have the advantage of knowing that if they don’t lose then they’ll be in the play offs, albeit as the weakest seed.

After a poor start that saw them win only one of their first seven games, Wednesday have been in the play off places since their 2-0 victory over Leeds United in January.

It’s fair to say that Carlos Carvalhal’s side have earned themselves a reputation as draw specialists. Only Hull have lost fewer home games and scored more home goals this season, but only QPR have drawn more games overall. They’re probably fortunate that this game is at Hillsborough, where they’ve only lost one of their last ten outings – but Owls have only won two of their last six since February. They’ve also only won two of their eight home games against the other sides in the top half of the table.

Cardiff have been in the top ten since the end of December, but have never really looked like a play off side despite having had a number of chances to make a move on the top six. It’s not hard to see why: at home they’re as good as Wednesday, but the Bluebirds’ away record against the top half of the table is worse than those of Charlton and MK Dons. City are also currently on a four game streak without a win on their travels and haven’t scored more than two goals on their travels since the end of January.

Furthermore, Cardiff have a poor record in the league at Hillsborough. They’ve only recorded two wins in their last ten visits (last victory was in March 2013) and they’ve lost half of the last six games at Sheffield Wednesday. Not looking particularly good for the Bluebirds is it?

Verdict: in order to overtake Wednesday, Cardiff would have to win at Hillsborough and at home against Birmingham on the last day of the season and hope Sheffield Wednesday don’t earn a point either tomorrow or at Wolves next weekend. Taking everything into account, I don’t think much of Cardiff’s chances and to be honest I don’t think either of them will be playing in the Premier League next season.

Televised games: Birmingham v Middlesbrough (Sky Sports 1, 7:45pm tonight) – Boro can take temporary charge at the top if they can win at St. Andrews. The hosts have been very wobbly at St Andrew’s since the start of last month,  but that’s not to say Boro have been any better. Might not be the most inspiring start to the weekend’s football.

Bolton v Hull (Sky Sports 1, 12:30pm Saturday) – a dead rubber if ever there was one. The only thing Hull have to play for is home advantage in a likely play off game against Derby.

One last thing: Paul Lambert won’t be returning as Blackburn manager next season. Rovers are on course to finish in their lowest league position since Jack Walker took over in 1991 and although that’s not necessarily Lambert’s fault, there was clearly a difference of philosophies between the Scotsman and Venky’s.

I’ll be back on Sunday evening or Monday morning with a look at Monday afternoon’s games, although I suspect we’re going down to the wire in the race for automatic promotion.