Category: Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace Promoted To The Premier League

Congratulations to Crystal Palace – the Eagles were promoted back to the top flight for the first time in almost a decade thanks to an extra time penalty from ancient striker Kevin Phillips. Crystal Palace became the first fifth placed club to be promoted via the playoffs since Burnley beat Sheffield United four years ago and only the second fifth placed finishers to be promoted in the last decade.

Since the Premier League was formed in 1992, Palace have never played more than one season in that competition, but we’ll see how they get on in August. As I pointed out last week, I’d expect that Watford might struggle at the start of next season but for now it’s time to have a couple of weeks off. Unless or until something dramatic happens, the next scheduled post will be in the middle of next month, when next season’s fixtures will be released.

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nPower Championship Play Off Final: Will The Hornets Sting The Eagles?

The old clichés about the ‘richest game in the world’ will abound on Monday afternoon when Crystal Palace and Watford face each other in the nPower Championship playoff final.

I’m going to start by looking at the game from a slightly different angle. It’s all very well for the media to chuck ridiculous numbers around, but it’s actually quite interesting to see exactly what the winners can expect next season. Six of the last ten playoff winners were relegated immediately, with their average finishing position being 16th. In that time frame, only West Ham (9th, 2006) finished in the top half of the Premier League.

The fate of the losing team is far simpler. I’ll be returning to my own set of well used phrases in the autumn when I start using the term ‘playoff hangover’ to describe Brighton, Leicester and Monday’s losers when they’ve lost to Yeovil or Bournemouth instead of Chelsea and Manchester United. Only six clubs in the last 20 seasons lost the playoff final and were promoted to the Premier League at the end of the following season and another three clubs reached the playoffs but lost in the third round. The good news for the playoff losers: only once in the last 20 seasons has the playoff runner up been relegated (Leeds in 2006)

Watford’s current team isn’t as good as the sides that won promotion in 1999 and 2006, both of which spent one season at the top level before finishing in last place. The current Crystal Palace side is roughly around the same level as the teams that were promoted via the playoffs in 1997 and 2004, but once again, both those squads were relegated after one season.

So who will join Cardiff and Hull in having to buy a new heat transfer machine for replica shirts next season? It’ll have to be another different angle here, as it’s an away game for both teams. As I mentioned in the semi final previews, neither of these teams have exactly been in form recently. Palace’s 2-0 win at the Amex a couple of weeks ago was only their second win in their last ten away games and although they’ve been better defensively of late, the last time the Eagles won consecutive away games was around the time the clocks went back. Watford have managed to win four of their last ten games away from Vicarage Road, but they lost five of the other six – it’s either boom or bust for the Hornets.

From a wider perspective, the Championship playoff final is normally a straightforward game. Sixteen of the last 20 games were settled in normal time and of the four that went into extra time, only half were decided by penalties – the last time that happened was in 2002, when Birmingham beat Norwich at the Millennium Stadium.

In the context of third v fifth finals, the stats are bit cloudier. There have been six games that fit the bill in the last two and the higher placed club has won three of the last five, but the interesting angle here is that these games usually feature a few goals. Here’s the rundown:

1996: Leicester 2-1 Crystal Palace (AET)

2003: Wolves 3-0 Sheffield United

2006: Watford 3-0 Leeds

2009: Burnley 1-0 Sheffield United

2011: Swansea 4-2 Reading

2012: West Ham 2-1 Blackpool

What’s interesting about that is that eight of these clubs are currently still in the Championship – only Swansea and West Ham are still in the Premier League and both the playoff finalists from a decade ago will be playing in League One in August.

Verdict: I’m expecting a cagey half an hour to begin with, but in the fifteen minutes before half time in their last ten away games, Watford have scored three times as many goals as Palace have – this is basically Troy Deeney time. Palace are vulnerable during this period – they’ve conceded five goals in that time frame, including two at Brighton and three at Ipswich. It’s also worth mentioning that in their last ten away games, Palace have only scored twice in the first half, whilst Watford scored seven times.

The fun should start after an hour – this is where Palace could make a breakthrough as Watford have defensive frailties. The Hornets conceded goals at Bristol City and Peterborough in this period, which doesn’t exactly bode well and The Eagles scored twice as many goals in the second half of their most recent away games as they did in the first period.

There’s been a goal in six of Watford’s last ten away games in the last quarter of an hour, but more worryingly for Palace this is another period where they’ve conceded goals. I’m expecting the decisive goal to come at this point in the game.

Verdict: Overall, it’s hard to separate these clubs, but one possibly decisive angle is that Watford were one of the most improved teams away from home last season. The Hornets won twice as many games as Crystal Palace did and their goal difference was the best in the Championship. To put Palace’s away form into some perspective, they averaged less than one goal on the road and Peterborough – who were relegated – had a better goal difference on the road. If this holds true on Monday, it’s possible that this game could a rout and Watford will have earned themselves a lot of money and at least one season in the Premier League.

I’ll be back early next week with some thoughts on the final, but my wife’s younger sister is getting married this weekend. Congratulations to both of them, but in a spectacularly poor show of timing, I’m not going to be able to watch the Champions League final and I’m also not expecting to see much – if any – of the last game of the season in the nPower Championship…

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Watford Reach Wembley, Will Know Opponents This Evening

It’s amazing isn’t it.

24 clubs have played 46 regular season games and four teams have played three playoff games, yet two of the biggest outcomes at the top of the table have been settled when one team scores immediately after their opponents have missed a penalty. That happened at Hull on the last day of the season and it happened again at Vicarage Road yesterday.

At the end of the month  Watford will be attempting to emulate West Ham and Swansea, who were both promoted via the playoffs after finishing in third place at the end of the last two seasons. Third placed teams have won half of the last ten finals and have only been beaten in the semi finals on three occasions since 2002/2003, but the Hornets need to be aware of the following fact:

Third placed teams have a much better record in playoff finals against fourth placed teams than they do against fifth placed teams.

Since 2002/2003, the club that has finished in third place has won four of the five finals in which they’ve played the fourth placed team, but only half of the six finals when they’ve played the fifth placed team.

Or to put it another way, it might be better to face Brighton at Wembley rather than Crystal Palace – which leads me nicely on to…

Brighton v Crystal Palace (Sky Sports 1, 7:45pm)

The evening of Saturday 15th December 2012. Brighton had played out a goalless draw at the Amex Stadium with Nottingham Forest and occupied eighth place, one point behind Watford. Crystal Palace were in second place – two points behind Cardiff City – after failing to protect a two goal lead and dropping two points at Birmingham City.

From that point on, Brighton’s home record and Palace’s away form have been going in remarkably different directions. Palace have won once away from home since then (at Derby in March) and have failed to score in seven of their last ten road trips. On the other hand, although Brighton lost at home to Watford at the end of December, the Seagulls have not lost a home game since and have kept clean sheets in half of their last ten games in front of their own fans.

Quite frankly, this is beginning to look as if this game will go two ways. Either Palace will manage a shock win or Brighton will qualify for Wembley with ease, but let’s not get too carried away with the latter outcome. In the past ten seasons, only two of the first legs between the fifth and fourth placed clubs have ended in draws and the lower placed team won both second legs. Unfortunately for Preston (2006) and Cardiff (2011), they both went on to lose in the final.

In terms of recent head to head form in Sussex, Brighton have the advantage. Although the 3-0 victory  in March was the first time the Seagulls had beaten the Eagles since Christmas 1988, Brighton have won seven of the last ten league meetings.

I discussed Brighton’s dangermen in the previous post, but Kazenga Lua-Lua needs to be added to the list of goal threats. He’s scored three times in as many games at the Amex.

As for Palace…well, let’s put it this way. Glenn Murray hasn’t scored an away goal in the Championship this year and only four of his team mates have managed to score away from Selhurst Park since mid-January.

Verdict: the intense rivalry between these two goes back to the late 1970s when Brighton were perceived to be on the receiving end of some dodgy refereeing in an FA Cup replay – which the Sussex club lost. In 1979, Brighton almost won the old second division title – but Palace won their last game of the season to snatch it away. It would be seen in some quarters as fitting revenge for Brighton to beat Palace in the playoffs and I think that’s the way this game will go.

I’ll be back with an update as soon as possible after the game finishes, but it’s my wife’s birthday today so it may not be immediately 🙂

UPDATE: the Curse of Fourth struck again last night as Palace won 2-0 at the Amex. Crystal Palace will face Watford in the playoff final at Wembley on Bank Holiday Monday. Full preview to follow next week.

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nPower Championship Play Off Semi Finals 1st Leg Preview

One of the most interesting aspects of this season’s Championship playoffs is that at least one of the four sides involved have reached this stage in nine of the last twenty seasons and there’s a possibility that we could have a repeat final. In 1996, Leicester were promoted after beating Crystal Palace.

However, with half of the last ten finals being won by the team that finished in third place, Watford appear to be in the driving seat this season. The Hornets also have the best head to head record against the other three participants this season, but the playoffs are a different kettle of fish altogether.

This season’s possible victims of The Curse Of Fourth are Brighton, but rather than boring you with the details, read about that particular phenomenon here.

LEICESTER v WATFORD (tomorrow, 7:45pm Sky Sports 1)

Leicester: playoff winners in 1994 and 1996, runners up 1992, 1993. Last appearance: 2010 (beaten semi finalists)

The hosts have won only four of their last ten and just one of their last six at the King Power Stadium: a 3-2 win over Bolton last month. This season the Foxes have beaten Hull and Brighton at home, but lost to Palace, Watford and Cardiff at home.

Watford: playoff winners in 1999 and 2006. Beaten semi finalists in 1989 and 2008.

Tomorrow night’s visitors have have won five of their last ten road trips, but only two of their last six and they’ve not won consecutive away games since February. Watford won four of their five away games against the clubs that finished in the top six this season.

Head to head at Leicester: Watford’s recent 2-1 win over Leicester was only their second victory in their last ten league games there.

Troy Deeney’s red card against Leeds last Saturday means he’ll miss this game, but Watford have shown this season that they aren’t dependent on one man for goals. Nathaniel Chalobah, Matej Vydra, Ikechi Anya and Almen Abdi are all capable of finding the net. The Hornets scored the most away goals in the Championship this season and nobody won more away games.

On the other hand, Leicester have got problems in front of goal. David Nugent hasn’t scored in front of his own fans since the end of January and although Jeffrey Schlupp, Chris Wood and Harry Kane have picked up the slack, none of them have scored more than three goals at home since the start of the year. Although the Foxes were reasonably tight at home this season, six teams – including Burnley and Derby – had better defensive home records than they did and only three teams in the top half of the table lost more home games than Leicester.

Verdict: neither team come into this game with much recent form, but this is a game that Watford don’t need to win. The sixth placed team has only beaten the third placed team in the first leg twice in the last ten seasons and both of those sides (Palace in 2004 and Blackpool three years ago) both went on to win the final.

CRYSTAL PALACE v BRIGHTON (Friday, 7:45pm Sky Sports 1)

Crystal Palace: winners in 1989, 1997 and 2004, beaten finalists in 1996, beaten semi finalists in 2006 and 2008

One home defeat in the last twenty games at Selhurst Park, which could mean two things: it either shows how good the Eagles are at home or that another one is due. However, Palace have only won two of their last six games since the start of March and haven’t beaten a top six side in 2013.

Brighton: beaten finalists in 1991.

Only two defeats in their last six aways, but nine draws in their last 20 road trips in the league and 18 ties this season proves the Seagulls are the draw specialists. Have won at Cardiff and Watford in 2012/13, but lost (and failed to score) at Hull, Palace and Leicester.

Head to head at Selhurst Park: Palace have won four of the last six games in the league, but Brighton haven’t scored more than one goal at Palace since Christmas 1983.

Only a desperately late strike from Mile Jedinak last Saturday earned the points necessary to confirm a playoff place for Crystal Palace. Defensively they’ve only kept two clean sheets at home since January, but they’ve performed well at home against the other sides that finished in the top six, only losing to Watford on the first day of the season. For a large part of the season, Palace were over-reliant on Glenn Murray for goals, but Ian Holloway’s signing of Kevin Phillips was inspired. Between them, Murray and Phillips have accounted for thirteen of the nineteen goals the Eagles have scored in the league at Selhurst Park since goalless draw with Bolton in January.

If ever there was a team that was built for the playoffs it’s Brighton. Leonardo Ulloa and Andrea Orlandi and aren’t exactly household names, but along with David Lopez and Will Buckley they are more than capable of scoring goals away from home. One thing that’s been overlooked so far is that Brighton conceded less than one goal per game during the regular season (only Leicester and Charlton conceded fewer goals on their travels) and actually lost fewer away games than both Hull and Cardiff. The other side to that particular coin: they failed to beat any of the relegated clubs away from home – a couple of extra points could have resulted in automatic promotion.

Verdict: Brighton’s defence is the key to this game. Having shipped three goals in the corresponding league game in December, Albion have kept more away clean sheets since then than Palace have at Selhurst Park in the same period. If the Seagulls can keep Murray and Phillips under wraps they should be able to take some sort of advantage back to the Amex Stadium next week, but if Palace can duplicate the same performance as they did in December this tie could be over before the second leg. Having said that, four of the last five first legs between fifth and fourth placed sides have finished with one goal or less and it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if that happened again on Friday.

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Plenty Of Potential Drama On The Last Day

The end of another season for most of the clubs in the nPower Championship – the last nine months seem to have flown by. With so many crucial games today, it’s hard to know where to start, so in case you’ve no idea what’s happening, here’s a recap.

Hull or Watford will be promoted as runners up to Cardiff City.

The last playoff place will be between Crystal Palace, Bolton, Nottingham Forest or Leicester. Brighton are in the playoffs regardless of what happens and unless something very peculiar happens at Selhurst Park or the Amex, the Seagulls will finish fourth and probably won’t be promoted.

At the bottom, Wolves will have to score a lot of goals and win to stand any chance of staying up. After that, whatever happens is anyone’s guess.

It’s almost impossible to chose the game of the week as there are so many candidates, so I’ll stick to those that will have an impact on the playoffs and relegation. Sky Sports will be showing Hull v Cardiff on Sky Sports 2 and Watford v Leeds will be on Sky Sports Interactive – both games kick off at 12:45pm. Brace yourselves for lots of ‘as it stands’ graphics and double box silliness, but regular readers won’t be too surprised that I’m looking elsewhere for the vital games.

Brighton v Wolves

On 11th May 1985 – the same day as the fire at Bradford City in which 56 fans lost their lives – Blackburn Rovers beat Wolves 3-0 at Ewood Park and the visitors were relegated to the third tier of English football for the first time in their long and famous history. 26 years and 51 weeks later, Wolves are facing exactly the same predicament.

Even though there were no playoffs in 1984-85, Brighton would have qualified for them. They beat Sheffield United 1-0 on the same day to finish sixth, three points ahead of Leeds.

Looking back at what I’ve written about Wolves this season, I still find it hard to believe that this is the same team that – at the start of October – had won four games in a row. By Christmas the wheels had started coming off and the 3rd rd FA Cup defeat by Luton was the end of Stale Solbakken.

Wolves have a horrible record at Brighton historically and against the current top six this season. They’ve managed just one win in their last ten visits to Sussex (in September 2004), but they’ve lost every single away game against the current top nine teams this season. Brighton don’t need a miracle. Wolves do.

Crystal Palace v Peterborough

Cast your mind back to approximately 5:00pm on December 1st 2012. Crystal Palace had just beaten Brighton 3-0 to go top of the Championship. Peterborough had been beaten 4-1 at home by Blackpool and were bottom, which they had been for most of the season until then. Five months later and the scenario is this: one more unconvincing result for Palace and they’ll be in the Championship next season. One more outstanding effort from the Posh and so will they.

Posh haven’t won at Selhurst Park since April 1963 and have failed to score there in three of their last four league games. Although they’ve won at both Cardiff and Hull this season, their record against the top half of the table is 2-2-7 and they’ve failed to score in seven of those games.

Palace have only lost twice at home, but haven’t won any of their last four games in front of their own fans, despite having taken the lead in the games against Leeds and Leicester:  despite still being the leading goalscorer in the Championship, Glenn Murray hasn’t hit the net at Selhurst Park since the start of March. The 4-0 home defeat by Birmingham City at the end of March really seems to have upset Palace’s confidence and if they’re off form against Peterborough, the season could finish on a sour note. It’s worth remembering that a point isn’t really any good for either side.

Nottingham Forest v Leicester City

This game is exactly why the Football League is better than the Premier League. Last week’s League 1 game at Brentford – where the winner could win the title if Bournemouth didn’t win at Tranmere – was decided on a goal following a missed penalty, This week we have a local derby in the Championship that could decide the last playoff place but may be completely irrelevant if another team – in this case Bolton – wins their local derby.

The bad news for Leicester is that they’ve not won at the City Ground since January 1972 and they’ve drawn far too many games against the top sides this season – in fact, they’ve not won any away games against teams in the current top half of the table. I didn’t fancy their chances last Summer and their recent form has been mediocre at best: their last away win came at Bristol City in mid January.

Mind you, Forest’s home record against the teams immediately around them is nothing to write home about either: they’ve not beaten any of the teams they might face in the playoffs – but the one sensible thing that the Al-Hasawi’s have done this season was give Billy Davies his old job back. Watch out for Forest next season – especially if Billy Sharp decides to stay or they sign a proven goalscorer.

Here’s what I think will happen:

Watford will batter Leeds – the Hornets have scored in six of their last seven games at Vicarage Road and scored in the first half of four of those – and will finish second. Hull need to beat Cardiff, but I can’t see that happening, primarily due to Hull’s nervous end to the season but also because Malky Mackay won’t want the Champions finishing their campaign with a defeat. Bolton will score early and beat Blackpool, therefore securing the last playoff place because Nottingham Forest and Leicester will be involved an anti-climactic draw. Nigel Pearson won’t be in charge at the King Power Stadium at the beginning of next season.

Wolves will lose at Brighton and will go down, but will be favourites to win automatic promotion from League 1 next season. Although Peterborough will do their best at Crystal Palace, Barnsley will pinch a point at Huddersfield to send the Posh back to League One. As I pointed out at the start of this season, Posh have never spent three consecutive seasons in the second tier.

There’ll be an update as soon as the games have finished, including the dates and times for the playoff ties.

UPDATE: I’ve been a fan since the early 1970s and I can honestly say that I’ve never seen anything like what happened this afternoon.

The basics: Hull are up. Wolves and Peterborough are down. Leicester sneaked into the playoffs.

The reality: 18 minutes of first half injury time at Vicarage Road…Watford lose two ‘keepers to injury…Cardiff take the lead at Hull…at various points during the day Huddersfield, Millwall, Barnsley and Peterborough could have been relegated…Troy Deeney gets a red card…Hull miss a penalty, then Cardiff score a penalty about 90 seconds later…Steve Bruce chases the ref down the tunnel…Watford’s teenage debutant keeper makes a huge mistake…

I need a lie down. Back later.

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