Buzzin Championship Football

It was more or less ‘as you were’ in the Championship last weekend. Derby remained top after winning at Vicarage Road and have a three point cushion after Bournemouth and Middlesbrough drew. Blackburn moved into the top six for the first time since August after coming from behind to beat Leeds at Ewood Park.

At the bottom, a goal from Clayton Donaldson gave Birmingham City a win at Rotherham to lift the Blues out of the bottom three for the first time since the end of last month; City are now on a four game unbeaten run and have conceded precisely one goal during that period. The Millers drop into the bottom three for the first time this season and have won only two of their last ten games.

Now we’ve reached the end of November and are only five games away from the midpoint of the season, it’s time for one of my occasional gazes into my crystal ball to see if there are any past trends that can give us pointers to the rest of the season. Regular readers will already know the answer to that: of course there are. I even looked backed over ten seasons rather than five for this exercise and the trends are even more remarkable:

* 66% of the teams in the top three positions in the Championship at the end of November have gone on to win promotion at the end of the season. If you reduce that down to the top two clubs at the end of the month, it’s a staggering 80%.

* For any team finishing outside the top three at the end of November, the chances drop away dramatically. Only two clubs that were in third to sixth place at the end of November over the last decade won automatic promotion (Norwich in 2010/11 and Hull two seasons later) and four clubs won the playoff final.

The implications for what happens this weekend could be very important. If Derby lose at Leeds tomorrow, only Bournemouth and Middlesbrough can overtake them and that would be on goal difference rather than points. So at the very least the Rams will finish November 2014 in third place, which would mean they’re more likely to be promoted than not although interestingly, they’ve only had two top six finishes at the end of November in the last decade and were only promoted in 2007 when they won at Wembley. Not only that, it’s rare for a club that’s lost the playoff final to be promoted at the end of the following season.

At the bottom, the numbers are just as stunning. In every single one of the last ten seasons, at least one of the teams in the bottom six at the end of November has been relegated and in eight of the last ten all three clubs that went down were between 19th and last place. As I said last week, Blackpool are as good as down and these figures emphasise that: in all but two of the last ten seasons, the bottom club at the end of November were relegated. The club in 22nd place has been relegated in six of the last ten seasons but with only six points currently separating Sheffield Wednesday and Wigan that could be anyone’s spot by tomorrow evening.

Of course, there are exceptions to both those sets of figures. At the end of November 2006, Sunderland were eleven points adrift of leaders Preston but they only lost three more games over the rest of the season and won the Championship title. A year later, both Leicester and Scunthorpe were outside the bottom six places but both were relegated at the end of the season.

Tomorrow’s games to look out for:

Middlesbrough v Blackburn

Boro’s record since they last lost at the Riverside has been impressive: a six game unbeaten streak including four clean sheets. Grant Leadbitter has taken over as leading scorer (Kike hasn’t found the back of the net since the end of last month) but the addition of Chelsea’s Patrick Bamford is a canny move that emphasises Aitor Karanka’s relationship with Jose Mourinho. The problem Boro have is that they’ve been in similar positions over the last few seasons but have failed to maintain a credible challenge for promotion.

Blackburn were one of my pre-season picks for promotion, but a month ago they weren’t looking the part. However they’ve won four of their last six and although haven’t lost on the road since the end of September, they probably need to start winning more games away from Ewood Park. Former Cardiff striker Rudy Gestede has been on fire recently with five goals in his last six games but if there’s one thing Rovers really need to improve it’s their away defence: Rotherham have conceded fewer goals than Blackburn have away from home and they’ve won twelve fewer points and are in the bottom three.

Head to head: Middlesbrough have only beaten Blackburn three times in their last ten league meetings on Teeside but they’ve not lost since August 2007, when both clubs were in the Premier League.

The game finished 1-1.

Rotherham v Blackpool

First meeting at this level in South Yorkshire since October 1967 but the curious stat about their recent meetings in South Yorkshire is that there’s only been one draw in the last 10 and that was back in October 1989. The reason the Millers aren’t so Merry right now is that they’ve not won any of their last six and have lost three of their last four; I still think they’ve had a tough start but if they’re going to turn the campaign around they need to win this game. Only three teams have scored fewer home goals than Rotherham this season and their opponents (who I’m not going to mention, remember?) have scored one fewer on the road. Don’t be too surprised if this is a low scoring match.

This one also finished 1-1!

The top three at the end of November: Derby, Ipswich and Brentford. Not counting Blackpool, the bottom six are Huddersfield, Millwall, Rotherham, Brighton and Wigan.

Enjoy the weekend.