Due to circumstances beyond my control this is the scheduled post for December 30th, but to some extent it doesn’t matter what date it is. If past performances are anything to go by Leicester are going up and Barnsley are going down.
The Foxes picked up maximum points over the holiday period and now have a four point lead over Burnley, who lost at Middlesbrough on Boxing Day. I’m on record about not being optimistic about Leicester’s chances for promotion but I’m prepared to eat my words. For the first time since their return to the second tier I think they may have a very good chance of promotion from the Championship.
The other winners over Christmas were Nottingham Forest – another one of my pre-season fancies – who are now embedded in fifth place until after the 3rd round of the FA Cup. Victories over QPR and Leeds combined with a point at Reading further strenghthened their claim. I wondered if Derby might run out of steam and despite being handily placed at the start of 2014 the home defeat by Wigan on Wednesday could be an indication of things to come.
Millwall and Yeovil were both disappointing. The Lions sacked Steve Lomas on Boxing Day and were one of six teasm who picked up one point or less over the holidays. Kenny Jacket was always going to be a hard act to follow and Lomas’ West Ham connections weren’t exactly appreciated by some of the locals, but once again it shows that managers without experience in the Championship will fail more often than not. Doncaster – who slipped into the bottom three since the first game of the season -and Barnsley also only earned one point. Yeovil gained precisely zero points although their game against Watford on New Year’s Day was postponed.
The FA Cup takes centre stage this weekend and at the risk of repeating myself, realistically I think the best chances of a decent cup run should come from the teams in the top half of the table that are taking on opposition from lower down the Football League. Although Blackburn entertain Manchester City in the first game of the round (Saturday 12:45pm BT Sport), Ipswich, Leeds and Wigan all look as if they should have a reasonable chance to reach the next round. The Tractor Boys face a Preston side that’s currently in the League One playoff places in what could close game; Wigan start their defence of the FA Cup with their first ever meeting against MK Dons and Leeds travel to Rochdale – where they’ve won both their previous cup games without conceding a goal.
As far as I can see, there’s one obvious potential upset involving Premier League clubs on the cards: although Nottingham Forest have only beaten West Ham once at the City Ground in the last two decades (Sunday, ITV1 12:00pm), the Hammers’ current form indicates that Sam Allardyce may be better off concentrating on staying in the Premier League than going on a cup run. Forest haven’t lost at home since the end of November and although West Ham won at Burnley and Spurs in the Capital One Cup earlier this season, they’ve not won an away game in the Premier League since the start of October and are facing one of the better home defences in the Championship.
Looking at it from the other way round, I’m not convinced that either Yeovil or Watford will have everything their own way on Saturday. The Glovers entertain Leyton Orient at Huish Park and although the League One promotion contenders have only won one of their last five league games, Orient have only lost one of their last eleven away FA Cup ties. Watford’s 4-0 victory over Millwall on Boxing Day was their first league win since October and although it’s their first ever game at Bristol City in the FA Cup, the last time the Hornets won on the road in the FA Cup was at Plymouth seven years ago.
Finally this week I’d like to wish you all a Happy New Year and offer my commiserations to Malky Mackay. This time last year I compared the dysfunctional situations at Blackburn and Nottingham Forest to those at Cardiff, Millwall and Peterborough where managers were allowed time to build and strengthen their sides. If a week is a long time in politics, then a year is a long time in football. As far as I’m concerned, the current powers that be at Cardiff City have made as a big a mistake dismissing Mackay as they have with changing the colour of their shirts from blue to red.
Back next week with the half term reports…
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