Buzzin Championship Football

It’s amazing isn’t it.

24 clubs have played 46 regular season games and four teams have played three playoff games, yet two of the biggest outcomes at the top of the table have been settled when one team scores immediately after their opponents have missed a penalty. That happened at Hull on the last day of the season and it happened again at Vicarage Road yesterday.

At the end of the month  Watford will be attempting to emulate West Ham and Swansea, who were both promoted via the playoffs after finishing in third place at the end of the last two seasons. Third placed teams have won half of the last ten finals and have only been beaten in the semi finals on three occasions since 2002/2003, but the Hornets need to be aware of the following fact:

Third placed teams have a much better record in playoff finals against fourth placed teams than they do against fifth placed teams.

Since 2002/2003, the club that has finished in third place has won four of the five finals in which they’ve played the fourth placed team, but only half of the six finals when they’ve played the fifth placed team.

Or to put it another way, it might be better to face Brighton at Wembley rather than Crystal Palace - which leads me nicely on to…

Brighton v Crystal Palace (Sky Sports 1, 7:45pm)

The evening of Saturday 15th December 2012. Brighton had played out a goalless draw at the Amex Stadium with Nottingham Forest and occupied eighth place, one point behind Watford. Crystal Palace were in second place – two points behind Cardiff City – after failing to protect a two goal lead and dropping two points at Birmingham City.

From that point on, Brighton’s home record and Palace’s away form have been going in remarkably different directions. Palace have won once away from home since then (at Derby in March) and have failed to score in seven of their last ten road trips. On the other hand, although Brighton lost at home to Watford at the end of December, the Seagulls have not lost a home game since and have kept clean sheets in half of their last ten games in front of their own fans.

Quite frankly, this is beginning to look as if this game will go two ways. Either Palace will manage a shock win or Brighton will qualify for Wembley with ease, but let’s not get too carried away with the latter outcome. In the past ten seasons, only two of the first legs between the fifth and fourth placed clubs have ended in draws and the lower placed team won both second legs. Unfortunately for Preston (2006) and Cardiff (2011), they both went on to lose in the final.

In terms of recent head to head form in Sussex, Brighton have the advantage. Although the 3-0 victory  in March was the first time the Seagulls had beaten the Eagles since Christmas 1988, Brighton have won seven of the last ten league meetings.

I discussed Brighton’s dangermen in the previous post, but Kazenga Lua-Lua needs to be added to the list of goal threats. He’s scored three times in as many games at the Amex.

As for Palace…well, let’s put it this way. Glenn Murray hasn’t scored an away goal in the Championship this year and only four of his team mates have managed to score away from Selhurst Park since mid-January.

Verdict: the intense rivalry between these two goes back to the late 1970s when Brighton were perceived to be on the receiving end of some dodgy refereeing in an FA Cup replay – which the Sussex club lost. In 1979, Brighton almost won the old second division title – but Palace won their last game of the season to snatch it away. It would be seen in some quarters as fitting revenge for Brighton to beat Palace in the playoffs and I think that’s the way this game will go.

I’ll be back with an update as soon as possible after the game finishes, but it’s my wife’s birthday today so it may not be immediately

UPDATE: the Curse of Fourth struck again last night as Palace won 2-0 at the Amex. Crystal Palace will face Watford in the playoff final at Wembley on Bank Holiday Monday. Full preview to follow next week.