The end of another season for most of the clubs in the nPower Championship – the last nine months seem to have flown by. With so many crucial games today, it’s hard to know where to start, so in case you’ve no idea what’s happening, here’s a recap.
Hull or Watford will be promoted as runners up to Cardiff City.
The last playoff place will be between Crystal Palace, Bolton, Nottingham Forest or Leicester. Brighton are in the playoffs regardless of what happens and unless something very peculiar happens at Selhurst Park or the Amex, the Seagulls will finish fourth and probably won’t be promoted.
At the bottom, Wolves will have to score a lot of goals and win to stand any chance of staying up. After that, whatever happens is anyone’s guess.
It’s almost impossible to chose the game of the week as there are so many candidates, so I’ll stick to those that will have an impact on the playoffs and relegation. Sky Sports will be showing Hull v Cardiff on Sky Sports 2 and Watford v Leeds will be on Sky Sports Interactive – both games kick off at 12:45pm. Brace yourselves for lots of ‘as it stands’ graphics and double box silliness, but regular readers won’t be too surprised that I’m looking elsewhere for the vital games.
Brighton v Wolves
On 11th May 1985 – the same day as the fire at Bradford City in which 56 fans lost their lives – Blackburn Rovers beat Wolves 3-0 at Ewood Park and the visitors were relegated to the third tier of English football for the first time in their long and famous history. 26 years and 51 weeks later, Wolves are facing exactly the same predicament.
Even though there were no playoffs in 1984-85, Brighton would have qualified for them. They beat Sheffield United 1-0 on the same day to finish sixth, three points ahead of Leeds.
Looking back at what I’ve written about Wolves this season, I still find it hard to believe that this is the same team that – at the start of October – had won four games in a row. By Christmas the wheels had started coming off and the 3rd rd FA Cup defeat by Luton was the end of Stale Solbakken.
Wolves have a horrible record at Brighton historically and against the current top six this season. They’ve managed just one win in their last ten visits to Sussex (in September 2004), but they’ve lost every single away game against the current top nine teams this season. Brighton don’t need a miracle. Wolves do.
Crystal Palace v Peterborough
Cast your mind back to approximately 5:00pm on December 1st 2012. Crystal Palace had just beaten Brighton 3-0 to go top of the Championship. Peterborough had been beaten 4-1 at home by Blackpool and were bottom, which they had been for most of the season until then. Five months later and the scenario is this: one more unconvincing result for Palace and they’ll be in the Championship next season. One more outstanding effort from the Posh and so will they.
Posh haven’t won at Selhurst Park since April 1963 and have failed to score there in three of their last four league games. Although they’ve won at both Cardiff and Hull this season, their record against the top half of the table is 2-2-7 and they’ve failed to score in seven of those games.
Palace have only lost twice at home, but haven’t won any of their last four games in front of their own fans, despite having taken the lead in the games against Leeds and Leicester: despite still being the leading goalscorer in the Championship, Glenn Murray hasn’t hit the net at Selhurst Park since the start of March. The 4-0 home defeat by Birmingham City at the end of March really seems to have upset Palace’s confidence and if they’re off form against Peterborough, the season could finish on a sour note. It’s worth remembering that a point isn’t really any good for either side.
Nottingham Forest v Leicester City
This game is exactly why the Football League is better than the Premier League. Last week’s League 1 game at Brentford – where the winner could win the title if Bournemouth didn’t win at Tranmere – was decided on a goal following a missed penalty, This week we have a local derby in the Championship that could decide the last playoff place but may be completely irrelevant if another team – in this case Bolton – wins their local derby.
The bad news for Leicester is that they’ve not won at the City Ground since January 1972 and they’ve drawn far too many games against the top sides this season – in fact, they’ve not won any away games against teams in the current top half of the table. I didn’t fancy their chances last Summer and their recent form has been mediocre at best: their last away win came at Bristol City in mid January.
Mind you, Forest’s home record against the teams immediately around them is nothing to write home about either: they’ve not beaten any of the teams they might face in the playoffs – but the one sensible thing that the Al-Hasawi’s have done this season was give Billy Davies his old job back. Watch out for Forest next season – especially if Billy Sharp decides to stay or they sign a proven goalscorer.
Here’s what I think will happen:
Watford will batter Leeds – the Hornets have scored in six of their last seven games at Vicarage Road and scored in the first half of four of those – and will finish second. Hull need to beat Cardiff, but I can’t see that happening, primarily due to Hull’s nervous end to the season but also because Malky Mackay won’t want the Champions finishing their campaign with a defeat. Bolton will score early and beat Blackpool, therefore securing the last playoff place because Nottingham Forest and Leicester will be involved an anti-climactic draw. Nigel Pearson won’t be in charge at the King Power Stadium at the beginning of next season.
Wolves will lose at Brighton and will go down, but will be favourites to win automatic promotion from League 1 next season. Although Peterborough will do their best at Crystal Palace, Barnsley will pinch a point at Huddersfield to send the Posh back to League One. As I pointed out at the start of this season, Posh have never spent three consecutive seasons in the second tier.
There’ll be an update as soon as the games have finished, including the dates and times for the playoff ties.
UPDATE: I’ve been a fan since the early 1970s and I can honestly say that I’ve never seen anything like what happened this afternoon.
The basics: Hull are up. Wolves and Peterborough are down. Leicester sneaked into the playoffs.
The reality: 18 minutes of first half injury time at Vicarage Road…Watford lose two ‘keepers to injury…Cardiff take the lead at Hull…at various points during the day Huddersfield, Millwall, Barnsley and Peterborough could have been relegated…Troy Deeney gets a red card…Hull miss a penalty, then Cardiff score a penalty about 90 seconds later…Steve Bruce chases the ref down the tunnel…Watford’s teenage debutant keeper makes a huge mistake…
I need a lie down. Back later.
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