Tag: Managerial Changes

Game Of The Week: Leeds v Sheffield Wednesday

On Tuesday evening Philip Billing’s goal eight minutes from time meant Huddersfield beat Reading, a result that means the Terriers are now only four points behind Brighton at the top of the table.

It’s a big weekend at both ends of the table and amazingly both the televised games on Saturday are crucial matches at the top of the table. The fun starts this evening when there’s a big game at the other end, where there’s only a six point gap between Blackburn and Wolves.

Burton Albion v Blackburn Rovers (this evening, no TV coverage)

After a run of five straight defeats at home, Burton have won their last two and have a reasonable looking run in at the Pirelli Stadium that starts with Rovers’ first game under Tony Mowbray, who was appointed after Owen Coyle was sacked earlier in the week and hasn’t exactly been the most successful manager at this level.

He’s got his work cut out for him: Blackburn have won once in their last ten aways but haven’t earned all three points at any of the sides in the bottom half of the table at the moment. Considering only four of the 21 games between the teams currently in the bottom six have ended in away wins, Blackburn are clearly on the back foot here.

Leeds United v Sheffield Wednesday (12:30pm, Sky Sports 1)

There hasn’t been a draw in any of the 16 Yorkshire derbies so far this season, which may be significant considering this is Leeds’ last one of the season. Gary Monk’s side has only suffered two defeats at Elland Road in the last ten but United have only won two of their six games against the top six and that may be worth remembering when the playoffs come round. Wednesday were surprisingly beaten by Brentford at Hillsborough this week: they still have to travel to Barnsley and Rotherham before the season ends. Since the turn of the century, Wednesday have only won once at Leeds in six league games, but the last three have all finished 1-1. If this does finish as a draw, don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Newcastle United v Bristol City

This could be the most one sided game in the Championship this weekend, but there are a couple of things to take into account. Four of Newcastle’s seven defeats have been against sides currently in the bottom half of the table – including both games against Blackburn – but in five of those losses, the current leaders have failed to score.

On the other hand, Bristol City haven’t kept an away clean sheet since September and haven’t scored in a league game at Newcastle since November 1977. One of those problems is down to Lee Johnson – who has seems to be immune from the sack – the other isn’t.

Brighton v Reading (5:30pm, Sky Sports 1)

This is another one that might not go the way it’s supposed to. Brighton’s thirteen game unbeaten run at the Amex will have to end soon but Reading will have only had four days rest after the defeat at Huddersfield on Tuesday night. That loss means that the Royals have now lost all of their away games to the teams immediately above them.

Albion have been really impressive at home in so many ways: only one home defeat, only Newcastle and Norwich have scored more goals at home and only nine goals conceded in 15 games, including eight clean sheets. But here’s the weird part: Brighton have only recorded two home victories against Reading in the last ten meetings and there were fourteen years between them.

Another thing worth noting: the reverse fixture finished 2-2 and so far is the only draw in games between the current top six this season.

The remaining televised games are a couple of derbies that will probably have little or no impact on the rest of the season: Wolves v Birmingham (tonight, 7:45pm Sky Sports 1) and The Old Farm Derby (Sunday, noon, Sky Sports 2)

I’ll be back on Tuesday for the clash between the top two.

2016 Sky Bet Championship Christmas Preview

I’m going to kick off this post with the news that Gary Rowett was sacked as Birmingham boss on Wednesday for no other apparent reason than the new Chinese owners wanted Gianfranco Zola to take over at St. Andrew’s. The Blues are currently eighth in the table, one point away from the top six: this is a classic case of something I’ve moaned about for years, so apart from registering my sympathy with Blues fans and being pretty sure that Zola – who hasn’t managed in the Championship for three years and has been sacked from his last two jobs – won’t last a full year.

Long term readers – if there are any – will know that how the table looks on Boxing Day usually has a profound impact on the rest of the season. The year I’m a bit pushed for time so I’m only going to look back at the past five seasons rather than the last ten, but even then the correlation between the table on December 26th and the final table is remarkable. Here are the highlights:

  • In four of the last five seasons, the team that was top of the table on Boxing Day was promoted – although not necessarily as Champions. Derby were top of the table on December 26th 2015 but eventually finished fifth.
  • In four of the last five seasons, three teams that were in the top six after the Boxing Day programme was complete were eventually promoted. Norwich were seventh on 26/12/14 but won the playoff final.
  • The club that is bottom of the table at the end of Boxing Day has been relegated in the last five seasons.
  • In three of the last five seasons, the clubs that were eventually relegated were already in the bottom six positions. In 2012/13 Wolves were 14th on Boxing Day but were eventually relegated after losing four of their last six matches: Portsmouth were relegated at the end of 2011/12 following their points deduction in February 2012 – they were 17th on Boxing Day 2011.

If we assume that those conditions won’t change substantially this season, then we have something of a problem making the rest of 2016/17 interesting. Either Brighton and Newcastle will be first or second on Boxing Day and considering that only two of the ten clubs in those positions have failed to go on to win promotion after occupying those slots at the end of December 26th, then we already have a good idea who will be playing in the Premier League next season.

At the bottom, Rotherham cannot overtake Wigan before December 26th, so I’m afraid going to have to write them off. That leaves two relegation spots and the key stat here seems to be that 13 of the 15 clubs relegated in the last five seasons had been either 20th or lower in the table on 26/12. In this respect, Wigan look as if they’re in trouble too but then it gets very murky. Considering only six points separate the Latics from QPR at the moment, it’s fair to say that one bad run of form could see any of the remaining clubs in the bottom seven playing in League One next season.

So does all of that really mean that the rest of the season is going to be about who wins the playoff final and who is relegated with Rotherham?

What to watch out for over Christmas:

Nottingham Forest could have a big impact on the Christmas programme: they host Wolves and Huddersfield before travelling to Newcastle.

Rotherham entertain Wigan and Burton after their local derby with Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday, but even if they win both of those home games the Millers still have a mountain to climb if they want to save themselves from relegation.

Blackburn have to play two of the current top six over the next week, with a trip to Barnsley in between.

Gianfranco Zola will go straight in at the deep end with Birmingham: Brighton on Saturday followed by a trip to Derby on Boxing Day – both of which will be televised (see below).

Here are the games to watch out for over the festivities, those in italic are televised, the others are significant matches between the current top/bottom six:

 

Saturday 17th December

Burton v Newcastle

Blackburn v Reading

Birmingham v Brighton (kick off 5:30pm, Sky Sports 1)

Sunday 18th December

QPR v Aston Villa (kick off 12:00pm, Sky Sports 2)

Monday 26th December

Rotherham v Wigan

Newcastle v Sheffield Wednesday (7:45pm, Sky Sports 1)

Tuesday 27th December

Brighton v QPR (12:30pm, Sky Sports 1)

Derby v Birmingham (3:00pm, Sky Sports 1)

Thursday 29th December

Aston Villa v Leeds (7:45pm, Sky Sports 1)

Rotherham v Burton

Friday 30th December

Brighton v Cardiff

Saturday 31st December

Huddersfield v Blackburn (12:30pm)

Derby v Wigan

Brentford v Norwich (5:30pm, Sky Sports 1)

I may very well be able to post updates but the next scheduled post will appear either on the last Thursday or Friday of this month. So I’d like to thank you all for reading and wish you a Happy Christmas!

Newcastle Lose Twice; Jackett Leaves Rotherham

Having rather brashly predicted that neither Huddersfield nor Newcastle would lose last week, I failed to heed my own advice about the Championship fairly predictable in the long term but very unpredictable on a weekly basis.

What I was not expecting was Kenny Jackett to walk away from the Rotherham job so quickly. I think this may be one of those cases where he may not have realised exactly what the state of the club was when he was offered the job – the Sheffield Star provides further insight here, the Yorkshire Post article is worth reading and you’ll find it here.

Anyway, here’s Newcastle’s third home defeat of the season – and if I’d have written a decent preview last week, I could have told you that Newcastle had lost four of their previous five home games in the league against Rovers.

This week the top two and the bottom six can’t change, but with only four points separating Barnsley and Cardiff, it would be a good time for some of the clubs in danger of slipping into the relegation zone to earn some points…

Blackburn v Huddersfield

Six meetings at Ewood Park since the start of the century, but Huddersfield won the last game in Lancashire in April; Rovers have only lost one of their last six at home, but Town have now lost five of their last six on the road and have conceded three or more goals in the last three of those games.

Burton v Rotherham

Four meetings all time at the Pirelli Stadium, but Burton’s only victory over the Millers came in League 2 game almost four years ago and they’ve not met since. Having written that, Albion haven’t lost at home since mid September and haven’t conceded a goal at home for almost five hours, which is hardly encouraging for Rotherham, who have been so dire this season that if they’re bottom on Boxing Day I’m not going to bother writing about them again.

Cardiff v Brighton

Last season’s meeting ended in a surprise 4-1 victory for the hosts, but since then the Bluebirds have only won seven of their seventeen league games in the Welsh capital and last weekend’s victory against Huddersfield was only their third home win in 2016/17. After a so-so start, Brighton’s recent away form has been very good: four wins in their last five aways with four clean sheets. Combine that with the fact that they’ve only lost three of their last ten trips to Cardiff for league games and you get the distinct impression that the hosts will remain in the bottom three tomorrow evening.

I’ll be back on Monday with the draw for the Third Round of the FA Cup, then the December market reports on Friday.

Something Different This Week

Only two games came to my attention this weekend and as I’d expect neither Newcastle nor Huddersfield will lose and the top two can’t be overtaken anyway, it’s time for a slightly different angle.

Looking at the current table, it’s interesting to see that some of the most interesting statistics seem to be clustered around just a few clubs – so I thought I’d take a detailed look at them.

I was initially sceptical about Newcastle’s chances this season, but that was before I realised exactly how good they are. This is already beginning to look like a masterclass in how to win the Championship: the present side are performing at the same level as the 2009/10 team that won the title by 11 points.

United have scored in all but one of their games at St James’ Park this season and have scored three or more goals in exactly half of their home outings but it’s their away record that’s astonishing. The season opening defeat at Fulham was their only defeat so far: since then they’ve won seven of their next eight games and have kept six clean sheets. To be quite frank, it does make you wonder how they got here in the first place.

In contrast, I’ve not been surprised by Aston Villa at all. Although they’re only five points away from the playoffs, they’re currently 13 behind Brighton, which at this point in time looks insurmountable. The big problem they’ve had this season is blowing leads in four of their five draws at Villa Park and two of their five ties on the road: their only away win this season was courtesy of an injury time penalty at Reading last month. That indicates to me that although they may be tough to beat, they’re currently nowhere near good enough to go up: if they don’t win promotion, it’ll be the longest period outside the top tier since the mid Seventies.

At the bottom, Cardiff have been beaten at home more times than any other club this season, which ties in nicely with their major regression from last season. Since promotion in 2003, the Bluebirds have only lost more than five home games in a season on three occasions. The last time they were relegated from this section – at the end of 1984/85 – they lost 13 games at Ninian Park. In fact, it won’t come as any surprise that they’d also lost five home games by the end of November 1984: they’ve been better at home since Neil Warnock took over at the start of last month, but the Bluebirds still have some work to do.

Wigan are in trouble largely due to having scored the fewest goals in front of their own fans: the Latics have been shut out in five of their eight home games this season.. Will Griggs’ 88th minute winner against Wolves at the end of September is the most recent goal at the DW Stadium: there have been four and half hours of football since then.  Ipswich are as bad at scoring away from home – they’ve scored four goals in eight games, half of which came at Sheffield Wednesday three weeks ago.

And then there’s Rotherham.

As I mentioned a few weeks ago, this is already an historically inept season for the Millers. They’ve lost all but one of their away fixtures this season and would have won the other one if they’d not conceded an injury time equaliser at Ipswich. Opponents have scored at least twice in all games so far. Their post-war record for goals conceded in away games was 57 in 1957/58, when they finished 18th in the old Second Division and avoided relegation by three points: the highlight of that campaign was an 8-0 defeat at West Ham in March. Additionally, they’re on course to break their own record of winning the fewest amount of points in the section since the second tier was renamed the Championship at the start of 2004/05. The Millers finished with 29 points at the end of that season: I’ve currently got them on target to finish with even fewer than that.

There’ll be a short preview of the League Cup quarter finals on Tuesday, but don’t forget that the draw for the Third Round of the FA Cup will be made on Monday 5th December.

 

 

Now Holloway Is Back

I’m not sure what to make of QPR continuing the retro feel of this season’s Sky Bet Championship. Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink’s departure on Guy Fawkes’ night was another indication that just because some clubs have played the odd season in the Premier League that they just simply need to turn up in order to be challenging for promotion. The appointment of Ian Holloway – who hasn’t managed anyone for almost two years – at Loftus Road was lauded by Rangers fans but by detached amusement by almost everyone else. Still, I’m sure he’s getting more money than he was when he was working for Sky Sports and I’m sure he’s got a few more of his homespun and entertaining anecdotes.

There are two confirmed appointments as well as Holloway’s return: Paul Lambert is now Wolves‘ boss and Warren Joyce is managing Wigan. Lambert has previous managerial experience in the Championship and could be a good fit for Wolves, but on the other hand Joyce hasn’t managed in the Football League since 2000 and looks like yet another gamble by a team that remains one of the favourites for relegation.

Back to this weekend. Newcastle and Brighton have a five point cushion over Huddersfield, any of the top half could reach the playoff spots this weekend, Rotherham are still bottom and any of the other five clubs in the bottom six could find themselves in the bottom three on Sunday morning.

A couple of games to keep an eye on this week, one tomorrow and one televised game on Sunday lunchtime:

Cardiff v Huddersfield

It didn’t take too long for the Warnock effect to wear off: the Bluebirds have lost their last two and have slipped back into the bottom four. They haven’t kept a home clean sheet since April and although Huddersfield have only won once in five trips to the Welsh capital since the start of the 21st century and have only one victory in their last five outings, the Terriers haven’t lost at any of the sides currently in the bottom half of the table.

Leeds v Newcastle (Sunday, Sky Sports 1, 1:15pm kick off)

After a nondescript start that saw rumours of Gary Monk’s imminent departure swirling in the wind, Leeds have now cracked the playoff places for the first time for almost three years on the back of a run that has seen them lose only twice in ten games. Although Chris Wood has scored five of their 13 goals in that period, it’s perfectly fine to use the old cliche that United are a team full of goals – seven other players have contributed to that tally, including an own goal from Wolves’ Silvio at Molineux in October. The only knock against them: at Elland Road this season, they’ve only beaten clubs currently in the bottom half and only Burton were defeated by more than one goal.

Newcastle haven’t lost on their travels since the first game of the season, but if they avoid defeat at Elland Road there’s a very good chance that they could finish this year without losing on the road – their next three aways are against teams at the wrong end of the table. Defensively, the Magpies are better away from St. James’ Park: five clean sheets in eight games so far -an opposition player hasn’t scored against them in an away game since Aaron Tshibola scored for Aston Villa at the end of September.

Astonishingly, this is the first league meeting between the clubs at Elland Road since August 2003 and you’ve got to go back to September 1999 for the last Leeds win in Yorkshire.

I’ll be back next Friday. I’ll be up North again for Christmas, so I’m not sure if there’ll be a post over the holiday or not yet. Don’t be too surprised if there isn’t.