Tag: Analysis

Game Of The Evening: Huddersfield v Reading

In a few weeks time this game could be a possible playoff final. I’m quite happy to admit that I didn’t give either side much chance of being in this position before the season began. As I’ve covered Huddersfield a lot over recent weeks, it’s probably time to give Reading the once over.

After a relatively sluggish start, the Royals been outside of the top ten since mid-September but they look like a team that’s going to end up marooned in the playoff places for the rest of the season. That’s not necessarily a bad thing for a club that spent the last two campaigns in the bottom third of the table, but still indicates that they’ll probably have to go the long way round for promotion and may be better off waiting for next season.

They’ve been excellent at the Madejski Stadium – only two defeats in their last ten – but although their away form has improved substantially this season, they’ve only kept four clean sheets in fifteen away games, with three shutouts coming against sides currently in the bottom half of the current table.

Crucially, just over half of their thirteen away goals this season have been scored between the 76th and 90th minutes – and five of those were the difference between a draw and a win. Yann Kermogant, Garath McCleary and Jon Swift are their leading goal scorers away from home, but significantly Kermogant hasn’t scored on the road since netting twice in four minutes at Bristol City at the start of last month and McCleary hasn’t scored an away goal since Bonfire Night. That’s far from being the end of the story though: this season nine other players have scored one goal each in Reading’s travels. Summing up, Reading are making their own luck in away games, clearly have goals throughout the team but – surprisingly for a team that’s managed by one of the best defenders in Europe in his prime – can be a bit dodgy at the back.

Huddersfield away has not been a particularly profitable match for Reading. The Royals last win in West Yorkshire came in December 2013, but Town won the next two meetings by an aggregate of 6-1. Significantly, the last draw between the sides at Huddersfield was in October 1992: this season only one of the 19 games between the teams currently in the top six has finished all square. Seven have been won by the away side, but Reading have already lost by two goals at both Leeds and Newcastle this season.

I’ll be back on Friday with a look at the games that matter at both ends of the table, so see you then.

 

Huddersfield Town Are The Real Deal

Huddersfield certainly stepped up to the challenge of having two games in four days against other promotion contenders – they won both, with Sunday’s game against Leeds finishing in dramatic fashion:

What the clip doesn’t show is the fracas between David Wagner and Garry Monk after Wagner returned to the technical area. Both clubs face FA charges relating to being unable to control their players.

I’m also happy to admit that I wasn’t entirely convinced by Huddersfield’s early season form but I’m happy to change my mind. If either Brighton or Newcastle slip up, then the Terriers have proved that they can take advantage…it’s a big if though.

With three Yorkshire clubs in the playoff spots, we’re primed for a very exciting end to the season, but this weekend, our attention shifts to the bottom of the table. There are three games featuring four of the bottom six clubs:

Brighton v Burton Albion

The hosts haven’t lost at home since September and until last weekend Brighton hadn’t conceded more than two goals since December 2015, so it would be a real shock if Burton took three points at the Amex. The Brewers beat Wolves last weekend to record their second win in three games, but they’ve not won consecutive games this season and this looks beyond them.

QPR v Huddersfield Town

I’ve long been of the opinion that former players and/or manager that return to the scene of their former glories will inevitably fail to recreate them and it looks as if Ian Holloway is going to learn that the hard way – unlike Nigel Clough. Rangers nose dive down the table began before Ian Holloway returned, but his record since his re-appointment they’ve picked up 14 points from 14 games, which is a worse record than Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink compiled during his tenure at Loftus Road.

I don’t think I need to point out how good Huddersfield are at the moment.

Rotherham United v Blackburn Rovers

The Millers – who are now mathematically out of the playoffs – have lost their last four games without scoring, so I’m focusing on Blackburn here. There have been some signs of life recently – Rovers have only lost twice in their last half dozen outings – but despite wins at Derby and Newcastle earlier this season, they’ve been poor on the road and have already lost without scoring at both Bristol City and Wigan. One major positive for the visitors: they’ve beaten Rotherham in four of the last five league meetings.

Televised games: Sheffield Wednesday v Birmingham City (this evening, kickoff 7:45pm Sky Sports 1) would have been a good one before Gary Rowett was sacked, but with the Blues having apparently dropped out of playoff contention it’s not as much of a thrilling prospect. Wolves host Newcastle tomorrow (5:30pm, Sky Sports 1) but it’s in direct competition with Wales v England in the Six Nations and can’t really compete as a spectacle.

There won’t be a post about the midweek programme next Tuesday as it’s both Valentine’s Day and half term – and as my wife is a teacher, I think I’ve got a decent excuse.

 

 

2016 Sky Bet Championship Christmas Preview

I’m going to kick off this post with the news that Gary Rowett was sacked as Birmingham boss on Wednesday for no other apparent reason than the new Chinese owners wanted Gianfranco Zola to take over at St. Andrew’s. The Blues are currently eighth in the table, one point away from the top six: this is a classic case of something I’ve moaned about for years, so apart from registering my sympathy with Blues fans and being pretty sure that Zola – who hasn’t managed in the Championship for three years and has been sacked from his last two jobs – won’t last a full year.

Long term readers – if there are any – will know that how the table looks on Boxing Day usually has a profound impact on the rest of the season. The year I’m a bit pushed for time so I’m only going to look back at the past five seasons rather than the last ten, but even then the correlation between the table on December 26th and the final table is remarkable. Here are the highlights:

  • In four of the last five seasons, the team that was top of the table on Boxing Day was promoted – although not necessarily as Champions. Derby were top of the table on December 26th 2015 but eventually finished fifth.
  • In four of the last five seasons, three teams that were in the top six after the Boxing Day programme was complete were eventually promoted. Norwich were seventh on 26/12/14 but won the playoff final.
  • The club that is bottom of the table at the end of Boxing Day has been relegated in the last five seasons.
  • In three of the last five seasons, the clubs that were eventually relegated were already in the bottom six positions. In 2012/13 Wolves were 14th on Boxing Day but were eventually relegated after losing four of their last six matches: Portsmouth were relegated at the end of 2011/12 following their points deduction in February 2012 – they were 17th on Boxing Day 2011.

If we assume that those conditions won’t change substantially this season, then we have something of a problem making the rest of 2016/17 interesting. Either Brighton and Newcastle will be first or second on Boxing Day and considering that only two of the ten clubs in those positions have failed to go on to win promotion after occupying those slots at the end of December 26th, then we already have a good idea who will be playing in the Premier League next season.

At the bottom, Rotherham cannot overtake Wigan before December 26th, so I’m afraid going to have to write them off. That leaves two relegation spots and the key stat here seems to be that 13 of the 15 clubs relegated in the last five seasons had been either 20th or lower in the table on 26/12. In this respect, Wigan look as if they’re in trouble too but then it gets very murky. Considering only six points separate the Latics from QPR at the moment, it’s fair to say that one bad run of form could see any of the remaining clubs in the bottom seven playing in League One next season.

So does all of that really mean that the rest of the season is going to be about who wins the playoff final and who is relegated with Rotherham?

What to watch out for over Christmas:

Nottingham Forest could have a big impact on the Christmas programme: they host Wolves and Huddersfield before travelling to Newcastle.

Rotherham entertain Wigan and Burton after their local derby with Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday, but even if they win both of those home games the Millers still have a mountain to climb if they want to save themselves from relegation.

Blackburn have to play two of the current top six over the next week, with a trip to Barnsley in between.

Gianfranco Zola will go straight in at the deep end with Birmingham: Brighton on Saturday followed by a trip to Derby on Boxing Day – both of which will be televised (see below).

Here are the games to watch out for over the festivities, those in italic are televised, the others are significant matches between the current top/bottom six:

 

Saturday 17th December

Burton v Newcastle

Blackburn v Reading

Birmingham v Brighton (kick off 5:30pm, Sky Sports 1)

Sunday 18th December

QPR v Aston Villa (kick off 12:00pm, Sky Sports 2)

Monday 26th December

Rotherham v Wigan

Newcastle v Sheffield Wednesday (7:45pm, Sky Sports 1)

Tuesday 27th December

Brighton v QPR (12:30pm, Sky Sports 1)

Derby v Birmingham (3:00pm, Sky Sports 1)

Thursday 29th December

Aston Villa v Leeds (7:45pm, Sky Sports 1)

Rotherham v Burton

Friday 30th December

Brighton v Cardiff

Saturday 31st December

Huddersfield v Blackburn (12:30pm)

Derby v Wigan

Brentford v Norwich (5:30pm, Sky Sports 1)

I may very well be able to post updates but the next scheduled post will appear either on the last Thursday or Friday of this month. So I’d like to thank you all for reading and wish you a Happy Christmas!

Market Reports: December

Before I start on the market reports, last weekend provided some eventful moments, starting with Newcastle losing at Nottingham Forest and culminating in the three red cards at Sheffield Wednesday. If you’ve not already seen the highlights, here they are – although the incident that lead to Jermaine Beckford and Eoin Doyle being sent off for fighting each other isn’t that clear:

In the promotion market, Newcastle’s recent blip has had no impact whatsoever and if the bookies are correct, both they and Brighton are already as good as playing in the Premier League.

Despite beating Brentford 5-0 last weekend, after five consecutive defeats Norwich not only dropped out of the top six but have also drifted back to the price for promotion that they were before the season began. There are a couple of clubs that might be worth investing in now, but there’s a ‘buyer beware’ warning for both of them: last season’s play off final losers Sheffield Wednesday have remained consistently around the 4/1 mark since the start of the season. If Derby continue their revival under Steve McClaren then the 9/2 available now might look generous in a couple of months time, but as we’ve seen in previous seasons, if there’s one club that is almost guaranteed to blow it at completely the wrong time, it’s the Rams. Of the other contenders, Leeds currently look like legitimate dark horses for promotion. Aston Villa still look overrated to me.

The situation hasn’t changed that much at the bottom. Rotherham could lift themselves off the bottom of the table by Boxing Day, but it’s a long shot and I think it’s wise to assume that the Millers have had it. The remaining question is who will join them, but a new team has joined the contest over the last month. QPR have shortened for the drop since the start of last month and it’s not hard to see why: they don’t seem to be any better under Ian Holloway than they were when Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink was in charge.

As luck would have it, the top current top six are playing each other this weekend:

Only three of the nine games between them so far this season have ended in home wins (Newcastle beat Brighton and Reading): that might not look like good news for the hosts, but neither Leeds nor Sheffield Wednesday are at home this weekend. The Yorkshire duo haven’t won any of the four games in this category that they’ve hosted.

Brighton v Leeds (7:45pm this evening, Sky Sports 1)

Leeds’ last win at Brighton in a League Game was in a League One encounter at the very much unloved Withdean Stadium in November 2009: the visitors last goal at Brighton was was four years ago. Over the past year, Brighton have only lost four home games in the Championship: this might be more competitive than recent encounters, but if Leeds win it’ll be a surprise.

Newcastle v Birmingham

After losing at home to Huddersfield in mid-August, the Toon reeled off five consecutive wins, so it’ll be interesting to see how they respond to last weekend’s defeat at Nottingham Forest. Birmingham’s win at Brentford at the end of last month was their first away victory since mid-September, but their surprise reverse at home to Barnsley last weekend wasn’t ideal preparation for their trip to St. James’ Park – where they haven’t won a league game since August 2003.

Reading v Sheffield Wednesday

Aston Villa are the only club to have won a league game at the Mad House this season, but the Royals have only scored more than two goals at home in one match in 2016/17. Wednesday have only lost three away games this season and haven’t been beaten since the start of November, but since the turn of the century they’ve only won once in Berkshire: in February 2014, Reading played 80 minutes with ten men after Alex Pearce was sent off and Wednesday won 2-0.

There’s a local rivalry theme to the remaining televised games this weekend: Preston entertain Blackburn at tea-time tomorrow (Sky Sports 1, 5:30pm kick off) and on Sunday it’s the East Midlands showdown between Derby and Nottingham Forest (noon kick off, Sky Sports 1). I don’t expect that either manager will lose his job if his team loses, but you never know…

Back on Tuesday for a quick look at the midweek programme, then it’s this year’s Christmas post next Friday.

FA Cup Third Round Draw

The draw was pretty harsh – only four guaranteed places in the fourth round, with eight teams drawn against Premier League opposition, six of whom will have to travel.

Championship v Premier League

Manchester United v Reading, Middlesbrough v Sheffield Wednesday, Norwich v Southampton, Preston v Arsenal, Stoke v Wolves, Spurs v Aston Villa, Watford v Burton, WBA v Derby

All Championship

Birmingham v Newcastle, Cardiff v Fulham, QPR v Blackburn, Wigan v Nottingham Forest

Championship v League 1

Brighton v Charlton or MK Dons, Huddersfield v Port Vale

Championship v League 2

Blackpool v Barnsley, Cambridge v Leeds

Championship v Non-League

Brenford v Eastleigh or Halifax, Ipwich v Lincoln

Championship v Teams Needing A Replay

Bristol City v Fleetwood/Shrewsbury, Rotherham v Macclesfield/Oxford

Back on Friday with the Market Reports.