Tag: Game Of The Week

Game of the Week: Brighton v Sheffield Wednesday

I’ve long been a believer that although the Championship is capable of producing some surprising results in individual games, overall the table doesn’t lie – and despite defeats for Brighton at Preston and Norwich at Rotherham, we go into this weekend with the situation at the top more or less as it was.

Seeing as though Brighton won’t lose that many games this season and Preston did so well against Arsenal in the FA Cup, here’s the highlights – with commentary for a change – from last weekend’s game at Deepdale:

Last week’s game of the week finished in a  2-0 win for Sheffield Wednesday, although the score was 1-0 when Huddersfield‘s Jack Payne was dismissed for a rash challenge on Sam Hutchinson with twenty minutes left…which brings me nicely round to the game of the week: remarkably, it’s being televised.

Brighton v Sheffield Wednesday (this evening, 7:45pm Sky Sports 1 HD)

Last week’s defeat at Preston was the first away reverse for Chris Houghton’s side since losing at Newcastle at the end of August, but the Seagulls haven’t lost at the Amex since September, have kept clean sheets in eight of their twelve games this season and – according to the bookies – are nailed on for automatic promotion. The only apparent weaknesses in their home form is that they need to score more goals in the first half of their games and seem to be vulnerable defensively in the first 30 minutes.

Wednesday are a little bit easier to analyse. Despite winning without conceding a goal at both Newcastle and Huddersfield this season, they’ve struggled defensively against other sides currently in the top half of the table and they’ve average just less than one goal per game on the road, having only scored twice in one of their games away from Hillsborough this season. To put that into perspective, four of the current bottom six have scored more away goals than Wednesday have, which is one of the reasons that although they’re one of the better teams in the Championship, they aren’t one of the best.

Wednesday’s last win at Brighton was in the first game of the 2014/15 season, when Albion were ‘managed’ by Sami Hyppia and only finished six points clear of the relegation zone. This season, exactly half of the sixteen games between the current top six have ended in home wins and although I’m not expecting lots of goals later on, I’d be surprised if Brighton lost at home – although they are due another reverse at the Amex soon.

Honourable mention:

Nottingham Forest v Bristol City

I am on record as saying that Forest looked like strugglers before the season began and so it’s no surprise to me that they’ve performed exactly as I thought they would, even down to appointing – and then sacking – Phillipe Montanier. Furthermore, the unsuccessful takeover of the club seems to have been the last straw with the fans, who were also less than delighted when news broke that Henri Lansbury will probably be leaving. His move to Aston Villa hadn’t been confirmed when I posted this, but I expect it will have been when you read this.

Bristol City have been in free fall since October, having lost twelve of their last fifteen games – which includes blowing leads in four of those matches. So far this season several other clubs in the Football League have sacked managers that haven’t done as badly as Lee Johnson recently, so there must be something about him that the City board sees that the rest of us don’t.

Head to head: Forest have only lost two of their last ten home games in the league against City, but those defeats have come in the last three meetings – and the visitors haven’t lost to a team below them this season.

Televised games: QPR v Fulham (Saturday, 12:30pm) which confirms my theory that Sky Sports are incredibly lazy: the production team will be in the pub by 3:00pm. However Barnsley v Leeds (Saturday 5:30pm) will be an absolute cracker.

Back to the FA Cup again next week, so I’ll see you then.

Game of the Week: Sheffield Wednesday v Huddersfield

Before I go any further, in case you haven’t heard, former Aston Villa, Lincoln City, Watford, Wolves and England manager Graham Taylor died today.

News of Mr Taylor’s death emerged as I was finishing this post, which is an early one as Reading are entertaining QPR this evening (8:00pm kick off, Sky Sports 1) although if the last ten meetings between them in Berkshire are anything to go by, the visitors won’t win and there won’t be many goals.

Looking back at Christmas, the following points are worth passing on:

  • Newcastle were in pole position on Boxing Day, but after two defeats in their last three games, Brighton have take over the lead and now have a two point lead at the top. Right now, I can’t see any outside those two for automatic promotion.
  • Reading, Huddersfield and Leeds have all made big improvements since last season whereas Sheffield Wednesday have maintained last season’s level. With three of the four playoff teams coming from Yorkshire, the rest of the season could be intense – starting with this weekend’s game of the week.
  • Rotherham were five points adrift of Wigan on Boxing Day and I think both clubs will continue to struggle. It’s not abundantly clear who else looks likely for the drop though: Blackburn look most likely to drop out of the section at the moment, but both Bristol City and Nottingham Forest are struggling badly at the moment and could end up flirting with disaster.

In managerial news, no-one got the chop over Christmas although Paul Warne still hasn’t been confirmed as manager of Rotherham despite having had a favourable impact on and off the field since he took over from Kenny Jackett on a part time basis.

On to the game of the week:

Sheffield Wednesday v Huddersfield (3:00pm Saturday)

With the clubs being separated by four points and 30 miles, the twelfth Yorkshire derby of the season should be a cracker.

Having only won two of the five games they’ve played against the teams immediately above them, this isn’t exactly a gimmee for Wednesday. Although they’re currently on a four game unbeaten streak at Hillsborough and haven’t conceded a goal for 278 minutes, Huddersfield haven’t lost on the road since mid-November and have conceded just two goals in their last four aways.

Head to head: the clubs have met eight times in the league at Hillsborough since the turn of the century, but Wednesday have only won two of those games including the last meeting in November 2015. Despite the recent defensive prowess of both teams, there’s a chance that this one could feature some goals, but you’ll have to read to the end of the next paragraph to understand why.

Bonus fun facts: none of the previous Yorkshire derbies this season have ended in a draw and there’s only been one undecided match between the protagonists in the last eight games at Hillsborough – when Jordan Rhodes scored all four goals for Huddersfield in a 4-4 draw just over five years ago. Also, only one of the fifteen games between the current top six has ended in a draw: Reading v Brighton in August.

Honourable Mention:

Burton v Wigan

After a solid start at the Pirelli Stadium, the wheels have come off recently. Burton have lost their last three at home and their lack of a proven goalscorer at this level should be something Nigel Clough addresses during what’s left of the transfer window. Wigan have only lost two of their last ten away games in the division but their home form has been bad enough to keep them in the bottom six for almost the entire season. The only other league meeting between the clubs at Burton took place last April when both sides were pushing for promotion and finished all square.

Other televised games: there are only five points between Leeds and Derby (tomorrow, 7:45pm, Sky Sports 1) so that looks like a decent game to watch. Remarkably, Wolves have never played Aston Villa at Molineux in a second tier game (Saturday, 5:30pm, Sky Sports 1) but the occasion will be overshadowed by the death of Graham Taylor, who managed both of the clubs during his career and was in charge at Villa Park when Aston Villa last played at this level. RIP.

Game Of The Evening: Leeds v Reading

Welcome to what is apparently my 400th post for Buzzin’ Championship Football. As a bonus, here’s Sol Bamba ‘losing his head’ last weekend, which seems to be part two of an occasional series titled ‘Championship Players Losing It And Attacking Their Comrades’.

The top three won’t change whatever the outcome of tonight’s games, although on paper Brighton have a chance of overtaking Newcastle at the summit. Although Rotherham won on Saturday for the first time since August, they’re still eight points behind Wigan although any of the clubs from QPR downwards could find themselves in the bottom three after this evening’s games have finished.

Game of the evening: Leeds United v Reading

OK, I didn’t see this coming. Both sides have done far better than I expected before the season began, so credit where it’s due to both Garry Monk and Jaap Staam.

Leeds’ only home defeat since mid-September was against Newcastle so there’s no shame there, but they’ve only won one of the last six games at Elland Road against this evening’s opponents. On the other hand, United have a very poor record in games against the other five teams in the top six, having lost all four of their matches without scoring: that’s an indication that they may be due for a change in fortunes fairly soon.

From Reading’s point of view, it depends which team turns up: they’ve won half of their last six aways, but suffered heavy defeats at both Brentford and Fulham in the same time span. At least this evening’s game isn’t being played in West London, but Reading were also tonked 4-1 at Newcastle earlier in the season, so if they concede an early goal things might not go their way.

Blackburn Rovers v Brighton

Rovers aren’t doing too badly at home against teams in the bottom half of the table and having won at both Newcastle and Derby this season, they look like one of those teams that are capable of raising their game against good opponents. Brighton are enjoying a 14 game unbeaten streak that will have to end soon, but since the turn of the century they’ve not been beaten by Blackburn in any competition.

Burton Albion v Huddersfield Town

I’ll return to the subject on Friday, but Burton’s season may be defined by how they do over the Christmas period. Their home form is fine, but this game is arguably the first real test they’ve had at the Pirelli Stadium since they beat on out of sorts Derby in September. The Terriers got back to winning ways on Saturday when they beat Bristol City last weekend, but Huddersfield have lost four of their last six road trips and have already lost twice against teams in the bottom six.

Cardiff City v Wolverhampton Wanderers

Neil Warnock’s recipe for avoiding relegation is to rely almost entirely on home form and to some extent it’s working at Cardiff (one defeat in the last six in the Welsh capital) so it’ll be interesting to see how the Bluebirds approach this one. Wolves have only lost twice in their last six away games and although I don’t think the visitors can win, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this ended all square.

Tomorrow: Wigan Athletic v Newcastle United

Newcastle returned to winning ways with an emphatic 4-0 win over Birmingham at the weekend and I can’t see them tripping up at the DW Stadium this evening. Will Grigg’s 88th minute winner against Wolves on September 27th remains the last time a Wigan player scored a goal in a home game in the Championship, although I have to point out that Wigan have won six of the previous seven meetings in the league in Lancashire. If the Latics win tomorrow night, it’s a contender for surprise result of the season.

Back on Friday for the Christmas Special, which usually writes itself.

 

Market Reports: November

At the top, Newcastle are dead certs in the promotion market. Five consecutive wins in October indicate to me that they are far stronger than I’d expected and they also compare favourably to their predecessors that ran away with the competition a few seasons ago. However, last month’s second favourites Norwich have seen their odds lengthen since the start of last month: their away form in particular has not been good enough for a serious promotion contender and their defence on the road is clearly a major issue:

Norwich’s misfortune has been Brighton‘s gain. Albion’s nine game undefeated streak is a sure sign that they need to be taken seriously once again and this weekend they face an interesting clash at the only other team that’s seen their odds for promotion shorten both over the last month and since the season began…

Game of the week: Bristol City v Brighton (tomorrow, Sky Sports 1, 5:30pm)

A televised clash between two top six sides looks like one to savour, but if you’re expecting loads of goals I’d beware. Albion won 4-0 at Ashton Gate last season but that was the first time there’d been more than one goal in a league encounter in Bristol since August 1991 and the revamped City side under Lee Johnson is an entirely different proposition. Six of the last seven meetings in BS3 have ended with one goal or less and City have only won one of those, just over a decade ago. If you take into consideration that so far this season only four of the ten games between the current top six have seen both teams score and exactly half of those games have ended with more than two goals, this looks a very tight game.

Back to the markets again and at the bottom, it’s still a case of who’s going down with Rotherham and possibly Blackburn. Preston are now expected to remain clear of danger, but both Barnsley and Nottingham Forest have seen their prices for relegation shorten. I think the bookies have been a bit harsh with the Tykes: they ended their six game streak without a win with a surprise victory at Brentford before snatching a last minute equaliser against Bristol City at Oakwell last weekend. On the other hand, I picked Forest to struggle before the season started and they’ve only won once since the start of September: if they continue in that form, Phillipe Montanier will be out of a job before Christmas.

There are a couple of runners up for the game of the week, but Cardiff haven’t won at Newcastle since John F. Kennedy was still alive and Reading haven’t won at Wigan since George W. Bush was midway through his first term in the White House.

As there’s another bloody international break next weekend, I’ll see you all in a fortnight, unless there’s another round of managerial departures…

Stubbs Out, Jackett In At Rotherham

I’ll start by reporting another managerial change: unsurprisingly, Alan Stubbs was sacked by Rotherham after only five months in charge. The Millers are currently on target to be even worse than Blackpool were a couple of seasons ago; Rotherham set a club record for consecutive away defeats on Tuesday when they lost 4-2 at Birmingham. It didn’t take long to confirm Stubbs’ replacement: welcome back Kenny Jackett, you’ve got your work cut out for you.

On to this weekend and any of the top four could be in pole position on Saturday evening. At the bottom it’ll be an interesting round of matches for the three clubs currently between Derby and Rotherham: Blackburn travel to Bristol City and Cardiff visit Nottingham Forest. I’ll come to Wigan‘s game in a moment.

Here’s the shortlist for game of the week:

Burton v Birmingham (this evening, Sky Sports 1, 7:45pm)

Nigel Clough’s side aren’t that bad at home (just two defeats so far) but those defeats – along with a 3-1 reverse at Norwich last month – were against the better teams in the section, something that does not bode well for their televised game against the Blues. You know what’s coming next: having written that, both of Birmingham’s defeats so far this season have been in derbies and Burton is closer to Birmingham than Nottingham is…

Huddersfield v Derby

I’ve not had a reply for the Terriers fan who contacted the site a few weeks ago to take issue with my description of Huddersfield’s form as being unsustainable, so I’ll just comment that they’ve lost four of their last seven and are 12th in the current six game form table. That being written, they’re still the most improved team in the competition although I think they may just miss out on the playoffs.

Derby have only lost once in their last six outings and still have a formidable looking defence – only Brighton and Ipswich have conceded fewer goals – but the combination of a poor start, managerial chaos and no discernible goalscorer may well have ended their hopes of automatic promotion this season. If they can find a striker, the playoffs may not be out of contention but they’d need a hell of a run of form to pull that off.

Fascinating fact: Derby won 2-1 at Huddersfield almost exactly a year ago, but that was the Rams first win there since Boxing Day 1995.

Wigan v Brighton

Wigan seem to have turned some sort of a corner: after losing four of their first six games after promotion they’ve only lost once since the middle of September – even though they had to rely on a late goal to earn a point at Leeds on Tuesday night. Overall the Latics are not much better than the side that was relegated two seasons ago, but it’s probably fair to say that their fixtures have been tougher than average.

Brighton’s only away defeat so far was at Newcastle at the end of August and although they’ve only conceded two goals in seven games against teams currently in the bottom half, they’re slightly off the pace they set themselves last season. Let’s not forget that was good enough for the playoffs though – and they’ve yet to concede a goal in six games against clubs currently in the bottom ten positions.

Fascinating fact: Wigan have won our of the last five meetings between the sides in Lancashire. Considering they’ve only ever played Brighton in the North West seven times, that’s not bad going.

Finally this week, A reminder that I won’t be posting next weekend. I’ll be back in a fortnight with the next market report so I’ll see you then.