Stephen Quinn’s first goal since September was the difference at Turf Moor last night and Hull have cut Cardiff’s lead to three points, but the leaders are playing one of their games in hand tonight and could go six points clear if they beat Leicester.
Cardiff have only lost once to the other teams in the current top ten but their wins against the other teams in that bracket have been close: they’ve beaten Hull, Watford, Crystal Palace, Middlesbrough and Leeds by just one goal. Leicester’s away record against the same teams is poor: one win (at Middlesbrough in September) and with three road trips to come against promotion contenders before the end of the season, you’ve got to wonder about their chances of promotion. It’s been just over five years since the Foxes won in the Welsh capital in a regular season game and although I think this will be close, I don’t think Leicester can win this. If you want a good example of the visitor’s recent malaise, leading scorer David Nugent hasn’t scored in an away game since the end of December.
Elsewhere, Brighton can overtake Nottingham Forest if they win at Barnsley, but there could be big changes at the bottom if both Barnsley or Peterborough (or both!) win this evening.
One of the big problems that face Barnsley until the end of the season is that they have yet to play three of the top six at Oakwell. The Tykes had a three match winning streak snapped by Bolton a couple of weekends ago and have lost six of their last ten home games: it looks like David Flitcroft’s honeymoon period is over. However, Brighton have only won once in their last ten trips to Barnsley and that was in August 1991 and one of the reasons the Seagulls are still jostling for playoff positions is that they have drawn far too many games against sides in the bottom half of the table this season (seven in eleven).
It’ll be interesting to see how Leeds approach tonight’s game against Peterborough: Neil Warnock will no doubt have his side fired up for an end of season charge to the playoffs, but they’re six points adrift at the moment and I’d say it was no more than 50-50 that they’ll make it. They need to win tonight and to be fair, Leeds have been very efficient at dispatching the strugglers this season: they’ve won all four games they’ve played against the current bottom six without conceding a goal, but since Luciano Becchio left for pastures yellow and green, they’ve taken far longer to open the scoring than they had been. In their last five home games, it’s taken well over an hour for the first goal to be scored.
Peterborough have knocked off both Cardiff and Hull on their travels this season, but have performed poorly in their other games against the promotion contenders. Although they won at Blackburn at the start of the month, it’s been boom or bust for Posh on the road recently as they’ve not drawn an away game since November. This is only their third ever visit to Elland Road in the league and although they’ve travelled to Leeds in the League Cup, they’ve lost all three games by at least two goals and it wouldn’t surprise me if they did so again.
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