Last Day Preview: Down To The Wire

Here we are again, the last day of the season. With most of the major issues settled, it’s always an odd day for those of us who support a team that’s got nothing left to play for. Regardless, here’s what to look out for when the games kick off at NOON tomorrow:

At The Top:

Brighton properly blew it last week: this was their first home defeat by Bristol City for a decade, when they were struggling at the Withdean.

If they lose at Villa, Newcastle only need to draw at home to Barnsley to win the title on goal difference.

Aston Villa v Brighton

On paper this is a far tougher challenge for the Seagulls than Bristol City should have been last weekend: Villa have only lost three home games this season, with only one defeat against sides above them. Brighton have only won half of their last six aways and to be honest, if they’re going to compete in the Premier League next season, their away record against the better teams in the Championship should be cause for concern for Chris Hughton during the summer.

Fun fact: Brighton have never won at Villa Park in any competition.

Newcastle v Barnsley

The Toon have lost only one league game at St James’ Park since Boxing Day and haven’t lost at home to Barnsley since September 1982. The Tykes have a very poor away record against the teams in the top half of the competition and could be the ninth team that Newcastle do the ‘double’ against.

The Play Offs

Unless Leeds beat Wigan by fourteen goals and the Cottagers lose at Sheffield Wednesday, Fulham will be travelling to whoever finishes third – and seeing as though there’s almost always a playoff semi final that was a recent league game, it wouldn’t surprise me to see another couple of meetings between Fulham and Wednesday over the next few days.

Due to My Wife’s Birthday, the playoff preview will be posted next Thursday, but the details of games themselves will be featured in the update mentioned in the last paragraph.

The Bottom aka ‘Survival Sunday’

This is where the fun starts. Blackburn are favourites for the drop and it’s not outside the realms of possibility that any sense of tension could disappear quite quickly. One thing that’s worth noting about the three teams trying to avoid the drop: all are owned by Asian ‘businessmen’ who don’t appear to know what they’re doing.

Brentford v Blackburn Rovers (Sky Sports 5)

Rovers will be safe if they win and either Forest or Birmingham lose, but considering that their recent win at Nottingham Forest was their first away victory in eleven games since the end of November, that cannot be taken for granted. Adding to their potential misery is Brentford have been really rather impressive at home recently: four straight wins, conceding only one goal.

The head to head record in league games at Brentford should make sobering reading for Rovers fans: although Blackburn won their last visit by a single goal in March 2016, they’ve lost three of the last four meetings since their previous victory in West London.

Bristol City v Birmingham City (not televised, but I can’t imagine the other two games won’t be interrupted if anything happens)

It could be a very emotional affair in front of the biggest crowd at Ashton Gate for almost 40 years: former City manager Steve Cotterill returns as Harry Redknapp’s assistant for what will probably be Tammy Abraham’s last appearance for the Robins, but City fans with long memories will remember that the Blues practically ensured the hosts were relegated when they won a controversial affair at Ashton Gate in 1999. One of the reasons the hosts are safe is their impressive form at Ashton Gate since Christmas: only three defeats in eleven games, the most recent of which was in mid-February.

I’ve no idea where to start with Birmingham City, other than writing that if The Blues are relegated then their new owners should take a long, hard look at themselves. Vanity appointments in this competition usually end in abject failure and all the work that Gary Rowett did after Lee Clark’s reign almost ended in disaster has been thrown away.

In the calendar year between last May and this, Birmingham City have won only four away league games in 23 attempts: but their record at Ashton Gate has been phenomenal – they’ve not at Bristol City since 1993 and Ashton Gate is something of a lucky ground for them.

Nottingham Forest v Ipswich Town (Sky Sports 3)

Forest have probably done just enough under Mark Warburton to prevent relegation this season, but be under no illusions: they’ve been in obvious decline over the last four years and have been very lucky that Rotherham have been holding the Championship up for most of the season. They’re also lucky they’re playing Ipswich, who haven’t won at the City Ground since December 1999: the Tractor Boys have only lost four of their last ten aways games though, so although a Forest win isn’t guaranteed

Update will follow as soon as I get home from the game I’m attending on Sunday lunchtime. Come back at any time between 3 and 5pm and there should be something here…

Update: Newcastle are Champions and Blackburn Rovers have been relegated, despite winning 3-1 at Brentford. Both Birmingham and Nottingham Forest won. The playoff semi finals are as follows:

Saturday 13th May: Fulham v Reading (5:3opm)

Sunday 14th May: Huddersfield v Sheffield Wednesday (12:00)

Game Of The Week: Birmingham v Huddersfield

First of all this week, I’d like to congratulate Brighton and Newcastle for winning promotion to the Premier League. Their last games will determine which club wins the title – Newcastle visit Cardiff this evening (Sky Sports 1, 7:45pm kick off) whilst Brighton entertain Bristol City tomorrow (Sky Sports 1, 5:30pm kick off) knowing that a win would make their lead unassailable.

Otherwise, there are all kinds of permutations at both ends of the table on the penultimate weekend of the season, which will no doubt get even more complicated after tomorrow’s games. The one outstanding match tomorrow is:

Birmingham v Huddersfield

Here are a couple of things to think about.

  • On the evening of Saturday 26th November 2016, both of these clubs were in the playoff positions.
  • Huddersfield haven’t lost a league game at St Andrew’s since November 2000 – the Terrier have won three of the last four encounters in the league in Birmingham.

The Harry Redknapp ‘era’ (interlude may be more appropriate in the long term) started badly with a derby defeat at Aston Villa last Sunday but with the Blues having both lost five of their last games at St. Andrew’s and facing a playoff team, the short term prospects for survival are looking dicey.

Huddersfield are in the playoffs after a win at Wolves earlier this week, but they cannot afford to rest on their laurels. Home advantage in the first leg – regardless of their opponents – should be their priority.

QPR v Nottingham Forest

Both clubs could still be overtaken if Blackburn win their last two games so this is a game that neither can afford to lose.

QPR are in danger of dropping back into the third tier for the first time since 2003/04 because they’ve lost six straight. At the start of last month they looked as if they were comfortable in mid-table and they’ve not got a bad record at Loftus Road against teams below them – but any more defeats could be disastrous. I’ll probably revisit this idea in the summer, but regardless of which division they’re in come August, Ian Holloway is living on borrowed time.

Despite having won precisely one more point than Rangers this season, Forest haven’t won an away game since the end of November and have lost nine of their last twelve road trips, failing to score in seven of those matches. They’re probably in luck that their last game of the season is against Ipswich: Forest have only won two of their last ten league games against Rangers in the last two decades.

Reading v Wigan

The Royals could still miss out on a playoff berth due to their extremely dodgy defensive record in away games: Wigan are all but down but will no doubt try their best to postpone the almost inevitable for another week.

Before anyone gets carried away though, Reading haven’t beaten Wigan in Berkshire since a 3-2 victory in the Premier League in September 2007 and their current nine game unbeaten streak at the Mad House will have to end at some point. Are Wigan the team to do that or will we need to wait for the playoffs?

You may have to wait until Sunday for the update – for some reason I’ve become very popular this Bank Holiday weekend and I’m out both this evening and tomorrow.

Update: Sunderland have been relegated from the Premier League; Wigan have been relegated from the Championship to League One. The playoffs will be between Fulham, Huddersfield, Reading and Sheffield Wednesday.

Newcastle Win Promotion

Promotion was always on the cards after Newcastle cemented their position in the top two in mid-October and their return to the Premier League was confirmed with a 4-1 win over Preston yesterday evening.

However, their chances of winning the title depend almost entirely on what happens in the game between Brighton and Bristol City on Saturday evening, even if Newcastle win at Cardiff on Friday – which is when I’ll be back.

Game Of The Week: Huddersfield v Fulham

Two games worth following this weekend: the first is between two rivals for playoff berths, the second features a team staring relegation in the face against a club who has one final – but slim – chance of winning automatic promotion but could guarantee home advantage in the playoffs with a victory.

Huddersfield v Fulham

With only two wins in their last six, it looks as if the wheels have come off the Terriers’ campaign to reach the Premier League, but they’ve only lost four home games this season. Half of those defeats have been against other teams in the mix for promotion, so this is a really good test for both teams.

Despite have the toughest run in, Fulham have been impressive recently with four wins in their last six. They’ve also got a good record against the teams above them, having only lost three of their eight contests against those sides.

Bonus fact: Huddersfield haven’t beaten Fulham in a home league game since September 1993 and have lost two of the last four meetings in Yorkshire.

Nottingham Forest v Reading

Two wins since the start of March – or to put it another way, one win since Mark Warburton took over – confirms my suspicions that the problems at the City Ground were inherent before he took over. Fortunately for Forest, this is a home game and they’ve not been too bad against the promotion contenders – something that Reading should remember considering their brittle away defensive record. Only Norwich and Rotherham have conceded more goals on their travels this season and Jaap Stam’s side have only kept two clean sheets in away games since the start of the year.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if there are a few goals in this game – five of the last six meetings between the clubs at the City Ground have seen three or more goals but Reading have only won three of their last ten visits. This one os going to come down to desire: Forest’s to stay in the Championship and Reading’s to escape it.

That’s all for this week, if anything dramatic happens I’ll update this post tomorrow evening.

Huddersfield reduced their chances of automatic promotion to practically none after losing 4-1 at home to Fulham – despite taking an early lead. If Newcastle beat Preston on Monday, they’re up.

At the bottom, Wigan will have to win both of their remaining games to stand any chance of reaching safety but that will be irrelevant if Birmingham earn a point against Aston Villa tomorrow. Blackburn also need to win their remaining games, but will have to score at least nine clear goals in order to overturn a significant disadvantage regarding goal difference.

 

Post Easter Update

Yesterday Brighton were promoted to the Premier League after beating Wigan and Huddersfield failed to beat Derby. The Latics are in big trouble after losing at Brighton – they’re five points from safety with nine to play for.

Gianfranco Zola resigned as Birmingham City manager following a disastrous spell at the club: the Blues won two games from the 24 during his tenure. He was replaced almost immediately by Harry Redknapp, with former Bristol City boss Steve Cotterill as his assistant.

Sheffield United won League 1 and will return to the Championship for the first time since they were relegated in 2010/11.

There *may* be a post on Friday, but we had another addition to the family yesterday and any post might be a bit basic as we’ve got to travel half way across the country to visit the new baby.