Tag: Market Reports

Market Reports: December

Before I start on the market reports, last weekend provided some eventful moments, starting with Newcastle losing at Nottingham Forest and culminating in the three red cards at Sheffield Wednesday. If you’ve not already seen the highlights, here they are – although the incident that lead to Jermaine Beckford and Eoin Doyle being sent off for fighting each other isn’t that clear:

In the promotion market, Newcastle’s recent blip has had no impact whatsoever and if the bookies are correct, both they and Brighton are already as good as playing in the Premier League.

Despite beating Brentford 5-0 last weekend, after five consecutive defeats Norwich not only dropped out of the top six but have also drifted back to the price for promotion that they were before the season began. There are a couple of clubs that might be worth investing in now, but there’s a ‘buyer beware’ warning for both of them: last season’s play off final losers Sheffield Wednesday have remained consistently around the 4/1 mark since the start of the season. If Derby continue their revival under Steve McClaren then the 9/2 available now might look generous in a couple of months time, but as we’ve seen in previous seasons, if there’s one club that is almost guaranteed to blow it at completely the wrong time, it’s the Rams. Of the other contenders, Leeds currently look like legitimate dark horses for promotion. Aston Villa still look overrated to me.

The situation hasn’t changed that much at the bottom. Rotherham could lift themselves off the bottom of the table by Boxing Day, but it’s a long shot and I think it’s wise to assume that the Millers have had it. The remaining question is who will join them, but a new team has joined the contest over the last month. QPR have shortened for the drop since the start of last month and it’s not hard to see why: they don’t seem to be any better under Ian Holloway than they were when Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink was in charge.

As luck would have it, the top current top six are playing each other this weekend:

Only three of the nine games between them so far this season have ended in home wins (Newcastle beat Brighton and Reading): that might not look like good news for the hosts, but neither Leeds nor Sheffield Wednesday are at home this weekend. The Yorkshire duo haven’t won any of the four games in this category that they’ve hosted.

Brighton v Leeds (7:45pm this evening, Sky Sports 1)

Leeds’ last win at Brighton in a League Game was in a League One encounter at the very much unloved Withdean Stadium in November 2009: the visitors last goal at Brighton was was four years ago. Over the past year, Brighton have only lost four home games in the Championship: this might be more competitive than recent encounters, but if Leeds win it’ll be a surprise.

Newcastle v Birmingham

After losing at home to Huddersfield in mid-August, the Toon reeled off five consecutive wins, so it’ll be interesting to see how they respond to last weekend’s defeat at Nottingham Forest. Birmingham’s win at Brentford at the end of last month was their first away victory since mid-September, but their surprise reverse at home to Barnsley last weekend wasn’t ideal preparation for their trip to St. James’ Park – where they haven’t won a league game since August 2003.

Reading v Sheffield Wednesday

Aston Villa are the only club to have won a league game at the Mad House this season, but the Royals have only scored more than two goals at home in one match in 2016/17. Wednesday have only lost three away games this season and haven’t been beaten since the start of November, but since the turn of the century they’ve only won once in Berkshire: in February 2014, Reading played 80 minutes with ten men after Alex Pearce was sent off and Wednesday won 2-0.

There’s a local rivalry theme to the remaining televised games this weekend: Preston entertain Blackburn at tea-time tomorrow (Sky Sports 1, 5:30pm kick off) and on Sunday it’s the East Midlands showdown between Derby and Nottingham Forest (noon kick off, Sky Sports 1). I don’t expect that either manager will lose his job if his team loses, but you never know…

Back on Tuesday for a quick look at the midweek programme, then it’s this year’s Christmas post next Friday.

Never A Dull Moment

Last weekend I found myself wondering exactly how much longer the Championship would last without a major story line. I didn’t have to wait too long for the answer: when I starting putting this post together on Thursday, the following events had taken place:

  • Nigel Pearson was suspended by Derby before Tuesday’s game at Cardiff, allegedly because of an argument with the club owner Mel Morris.
  • Tommy Wright (who was eventually sacked by Barnsley) and Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink of QPR being included in the Daily Telegraph investigation into alleged corruption that made Sam Allardyce’s position as England manager untenable. Oh and Mr. Cellino of Leeds is also apparently involved.
  •  Newcastle beating Norwich in dramatic fashion on Wednesday:

So there you go. The games to keep an eye on tomorrow are a pair of matches in a top six/bottom six double bill: Brentford v Wigan and Rotherham v Newcastle. The televised game is Norwich against Wolves (SS2, 5:30pm)

Anyway, I promised that the second part of the market reports series would feature this week, so here it is:

It won’t come as much of a surprise to read that Newcastle, Norwich and Brighton have all seen their odds for promotion shorten over the last month, something that’s underlined by the fact that the three of them are the clear favourites in the ‘Top Six Finish’ markets.

After that, it starts to get interesting: Huddersfield are still available at 4/1 for promotion, but they aren’t really a decent proposition in the ‘Top Six’ market. Surprisingly, despite their recent form the bookies are still very unsure about Sheffield Wednesday: the Owls odds for promotion drifted between after the season began, but are now the same  – 4/1 – as they were at the start of July.

At the bottom, Rotherham have been cut to 3/10 for the drop, which is – to put it in laymen’s terms – a 75% chance of relegation. The Millers are a classic case of a poor team performing at an ever lower level than they did last season and although there’s still three quarters of the season left, at this point it’s difficult to make a case for them staying up. Oddly enough, the best strategy for the Millers might be to lay them for relegation on the exchanges and then trade out if Alan Stubbs’ side puts a decent run together.

Over the last four weeks, Derby, Fulham and QPR have all had their odds for relegation slashed. However, there appear to be different reasons for this. Derby have been poor and QPR were probably overrated before the season started but Fulham have actually been performing at a slightly better level than they were this time last season. The most interesting move has been Cardiff: my current projection has them relegated on goal difference along with Blackburn and Rotherham.

I’d perhaps wait until after the international break if you’re thinking about betting on some of these markets. One of the rumours doing the rounds on social media is that David Wagner may move from Huddersfield to Derby, which would not only be a questionable career move but would also have implications for both clubs. Then there’s the situation at Cardiff if Paul Trollope gets the chop, which is also possible.

I’ll be back in a couple of weeks, unless anything dramatic happens. And by dramatic, I mean really dramatic, like the discovery of football on Mars or something.

 

Market Report: September 2016

No games this weekend due to the international break, so time for some early analysis of the season.

At the top Newcastle, Norwich and Brighton remain the favourites to go up, although I’d have to say that Newcastle haven’t beaten any of the teams above them yet and they don’t play Barnsley until next month. I know it’s early days yet, but none of them seem to have hit their strides yet.

Huddersfield and Fulham have also both shortened in the promotion market, but I think that the Cottagers may be the first to be found out. They’ve only played one team in the top half of the table (the surprise win over Newcastle on opening day). Huddersfield have had a far tougher start to the season, have performed well above may expectations and could be a genuine surprise package in 2016/17, but their current form is unsustainable. The Terriers have to face Brighton and QPR in a four day period in the middle of the month.

At the bottom, Preston‘s odds for the drop have been slashed dramatically after a poor start that has seen the Lillywhites lose four of their five opening games as well as the departure of striker Joe Garner: at the start of July they were 14/1 to go down, today they’re 7/2 . Blackburn and Rotherham are the favourites to go down and although Burton have drifted slightly after their victory over Derby last weekend, the bookies don’t fancy their chances over the entire season. However, it’s Blackburn that should be a real cause for concern: they were a poor team last season and so far they’re this season they’re a lot worse.

There have been a couple of intriguing moves further up the table as both Cardiff and Wigan have begun poorly, but it’s a case of ‘wait and see’ for both of them. Wigan are adjusting to a new division and Cardiff have a new manager.

Finally this week, the record transfer fee for a move between two Championship clubs was broken when Jonathan Kodjia moved from Bristol City to Aston Villa for a deal that could be worth £14m for the Robins. City beat Villa 3-1 last week without Kodjia – who hasn’t scored so far this season.

Back to normal service next week.