Tag: Financial Issues

Back To The Future With Bruce, McClaren and Warnock

Welcome to this week’s post, which I’ve been planning for two weeks and includes one of my rare forays into editorial opinion. First things first though: let’s have a big hand for Steve Bruce, Steve McClaren and Neil Warnock in particular.

This is both NSFW and a thing of profound beauty.

July 13th 2016, Aston Villa preview: ‘Questionable morale at the end of last season plus adjustments on and off the field mean that they’re more likely to be Fulham than Newcastle’

New boss: Steve Bruce. Immediate reaction: expect a very painful transitional period to a defence first mentality with lots of 1-0 wins.

July 21st 2016, Cardiff City preview: ‘but at for now the defence isn’t good enough and the Bluebirds failed to beat any of the teams in the top half of the Championship away from the City of Cardiff Stadium last season. Trollope – who hasn’t managed a team for almost six years – is untested at this level and could have something of a baptism of fire.’

New boss: Neil Warnock. Gut reaction: the Bluebirds will be a mid table team by the time I start writing about Championship teams in the FA Cup.

Same date, Derby County preview: ‘If Derby don’t go up this season, I’ll eat my hat. Although I probably ought to point out that my hat is a pork pie hat.’

New boss: Steve McClaren. Gut reaction: is that the best you could do?

It’s not even three months later and all three of the clubs mentioned above have now replaced the managers they began the season with. When I re-read those extracts the only one that really surprises me is Derby, but it’s easy being wise after the event: the other two are spot on. I’m just a modest blogger, albeit one that’s been posting on an almost weekly basis about the Championship for over six years – so if I could tell what was going to happen at Aston Villa and Cardiff this season, why couldn’t their multimillionaire Asian owners?

I think the answer may be partly because of the way the clubs perceive themselves. Of the 24 teams in the 2016/17 Championship, only ten haven’t played at least one season in the Premier League over the last decade. Of the fourteen clubs that have played in the top flight over that period, only three – Aston Villa, Newcastle and Wigan – have spent more than half of the last ten seasons in the top flight. That indicates to me that Villa are clearly out of their comfort zone – this season is only their eleventh outside the top flight since the end of World War II – and may have thought that all they need to do was turn up every week and they’d be promoted at a canter: the owner, the fans (who are probably the most deluded group in the Championship on social media), the former manager and the players have suddenly come to the uncomfortable realisation that the Championship doesn’t work like that. And yes, I am old enough (just) to remember when Villa were a third tier side in the early 1970s.

On the other hand, Cardiff have spent most of their time since the end of the Second World War in the second tier. That period also includes 18 seasons in the bottom half of the football league between 1985 and 2003, so the current performance may just be a natural regression to the mean. I started prepping this article before Neil Warnock was appointed manager and I think that’s a great short term decision although as you can see above it could work both ways.

At the other end of the scale, in the case of Brentford and Preston, The Beatles have come and gone since they were last in the top flight and you’d have to be at least 50 to remember when Huddersfield were a first division team – once again, I do. All three are currently doing better than Aston Villa.

Games of the Week:

Cardiff v Bristol City (this evening, SS1, 7:45pm)

A lot can change in a year: after 11 games last season, Cardiff were two points off the play offs and City were in the bottom four. Those positions are almost reversed for this game, largely due to changes of manager at both clubs but this match should give us some sort of indication of the impact Warnock has had in two weeks as Cardiff manager as well as Bristol City’s credentials as a possible playoff team.

The Robins haven’t won at Cardiff in a league game since December 2002 and have lost six of their last seven trips across the Severn Bridge, but this is Cardiff’s first home game this season against any of the current top six and City haven’t lost any of their games against teams currently in the bottom half of the table.

Norwich v Rotherham (Saturday 3pm, no TV coverage)

The Canaries should return to the top of the pile before Sunday’s Yorkshire derby between Huddersfield and Sheffield Wednesday (SS2, 2pm kick off). The Millers last won at Norwich three months before England won the 1966 World Cup although it’s only right for me to point out that four of the last six encounters in Norfolk have ended all square. It’s also right for me to point out that Norwich’s current run of four straight home wins is their best performance at this level for over a decade; if Rotherham lose their next four games, they’ll have equalled their own record for consecutive defeats, set in the mid 1950s.

That’s all for this week, I’ll be back at the start of next week with a look at the midweek games.

Never A Dull Moment

Last weekend I found myself wondering exactly how much longer the Championship would last without a major story line. I didn’t have to wait too long for the answer: when I starting putting this post together on Thursday, the following events had taken place:

  • Nigel Pearson was suspended by Derby before Tuesday’s game at Cardiff, allegedly because of an argument with the club owner Mel Morris.
  • Tommy Wright (who was eventually sacked by Barnsley) and Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink of QPR being included in the Daily Telegraph investigation into alleged corruption that made Sam Allardyce’s position as England manager untenable. Oh and Mr. Cellino of Leeds is also apparently involved.
  •  Newcastle beating Norwich in dramatic fashion on Wednesday:

So there you go. The games to keep an eye on tomorrow are a pair of matches in a top six/bottom six double bill: Brentford v Wigan and Rotherham v Newcastle. The televised game is Norwich against Wolves (SS2, 5:30pm)

Anyway, I promised that the second part of the market reports series would feature this week, so here it is:

It won’t come as much of a surprise to read that Newcastle, Norwich and Brighton have all seen their odds for promotion shorten over the last month, something that’s underlined by the fact that the three of them are the clear favourites in the ‘Top Six Finish’ markets.

After that, it starts to get interesting: Huddersfield are still available at 4/1 for promotion, but they aren’t really a decent proposition in the ‘Top Six’ market. Surprisingly, despite their recent form the bookies are still very unsure about Sheffield Wednesday: the Owls odds for promotion drifted between after the season began, but are now the same  – 4/1 – as they were at the start of July.

At the bottom, Rotherham have been cut to 3/10 for the drop, which is – to put it in laymen’s terms – a 75% chance of relegation. The Millers are a classic case of a poor team performing at an ever lower level than they did last season and although there’s still three quarters of the season left, at this point it’s difficult to make a case for them staying up. Oddly enough, the best strategy for the Millers might be to lay them for relegation on the exchanges and then trade out if Alan Stubbs’ side puts a decent run together.

Over the last four weeks, Derby, Fulham and QPR have all had their odds for relegation slashed. However, there appear to be different reasons for this. Derby have been poor and QPR were probably overrated before the season started but Fulham have actually been performing at a slightly better level than they were this time last season. The most interesting move has been Cardiff: my current projection has them relegated on goal difference along with Blackburn and Rotherham.

I’d perhaps wait until after the international break if you’re thinking about betting on some of these markets. One of the rumours doing the rounds on social media is that David Wagner may move from Huddersfield to Derby, which would not only be a questionable career move but would also have implications for both clubs. Then there’s the situation at Cardiff if Paul Trollope gets the chop, which is also possible.

I’ll be back in a couple of weeks, unless anything dramatic happens. And by dramatic, I mean really dramatic, like the discovery of football on Mars or something.

 

Game Of The Evening: Leeds v Blackburn

As I mentioned on Sunday’s update, Huddersfield cannot be overtaken at the top this evening after their win at Leeds on Saturday.

Huddersfield are at Brighton this evening: keep an eye on that one as Town haven’t won in Sussex since 2011. Here are the highlights from

Other than that, although there’s a seven point difference between the sixth and 21st, we’re still at the stage where a couple of wins could make a huge difference to both the table and the mindset of each club.

Before I move on to the game of the evening, the other contender for that accolade was the match at Carrow Road between Norwich and Wigan. It’s the first meeting between the sides since the 2014/15, when they left the Championship by different routes and the early signs for both of them indicate that could happen again. The Latics won their last trip to Carrow Road in March 2003, but that’s their only victory over Norwich outside Lancashire: they’re currently worse than the side that was relegated.

Leeds v Blackburn

I know it’s not even mid-September, but it’s already significant that of the clubs that were in the Championship last season, the current bottom three is composed of teams that are performing at a significantly worse level than they were last season. Blackburn and Leeds are similar in more ways than one: former Premier League clubs with stubborn and eccentric ownership is the first thing that comes to mind. Rovers are also rumoured to have debts of about £100m and apparently appointed Owen Coyle without considering any other candidates.

Before the season began I wrote that Leeds have been a bog standard Championship team for a couple of seasons but they probably wouldn’t be dragged into a relegation battle. The Blackburn preview began with the phrase ‘Uh oh.’ So far, they’ve combined for a total of one win in twelve games so far – Leeds won at Sheffield Wednesday in August. United have failed to win four of their last five at Elland Road and – as you saw earlier – lost to Huddersfield last weekend.

Significantly, Rovers have only won two of their last 16 road trips but they’ve won four of their last six league games at Elland Road and haven’t lost there since October 2003. Last weekend’s draw at QPR was the second game in their last three that Rovers haven’t lost – which is better than nothing – but over the last calendar year Leeds have only won seven of their 23 home games and if this game goes into the books with another defeat for the hosts then I can imagine that I might update this post with the news of the first managerial casualty of the season…

 

Game of the Week: Hull City v Sheffield Wednesday

It’s interesting how the fixtures in both the Sky Bet Championship and League One have fallen this weekend – there are four big games in League One and three here.

As for the midweek programme, not much actually changed. I couldn’t have got the Bristol City/Brighton game more wrong, it finished 4-0 to the visitors and was basically a throwback to the form both sides were showing in the autumn but fortunately for City other results at the foot of the table went their way. Derby beat Blackburn for their first win at home in five games: despite having conceded 24 fewer goals than Bristol City, Rovers are only above the Robins on goal difference.

Here are the big three games this weekend:

Hull v Sheffield Wednesday (tonight, Sky Sports 1, kick off 7:45pm)

Four consecutive home clean sheets are a testament to Steve Bruce’s defence first philosophy that’s been well documented here over the years. It’s clearly one of the more effective strategies in the Championship but it could be tested by Wednesday, who have scored in twelve of their sixteen away games this season. However, away wins are rare in games between the current top six: this evening’s visitors to the KC have already lost at Middlesbrough and Burnley and will have to play at Brighton and Derby after this game and and at the risk of repeating myself, although Carlos Carvalhal has been successful at Hillsborough this season, I think his team will be one of the favourites for promotion next season. Hull have won three of the last four meetings between the clubs when they’ve had home advantage.

Bolton v Burnley

With their future apparently sorted out after Monday’s decision by the High Court, Wanderers merely have to concentrate on staying in the Championship. The big problem appears their away form: at the Macron Stadium they’re not too bad – one defeat in the last six – but they’ve failed to beat any of the teams currently in the top half of the table. Burnley haven’t lost on the road since Boxing Day but haven’t picked up three points on their travels since the middle of last month: however,  they’re the opposite of Bolton – their away defeats this season have come at sides in the top half of the table. If Bolton win this one it’ll be a major surprise: this season only two of the seven Lancashire derbies have resulted in home wins.

Blackburn v MK Dons

Apart from the thrashing by West Ham in the FA Cup last weekend, Rovers haven’t been too horrible at home, but wins at Ewood Park have been few and far between and this is the first of a pair of home games that could define the rest of the season, but this has to be regarded as a chance to put even more distance between themselves and the bottom three. The Dons have been awful on their travels: the win at Derby a couple of weeks ago was their first since August and they’ve still not managed more than one goal per game on their travels since then. Looking at head to heads between the current bottom six, away wins are rare. First ever meeting between the clubs in Lancashire, but it’s worth remembering that the Dons have won both previous games between them.

I’ll be back next Friday with a look at one of the statistics about the Championship that seems to have eluded a lot of people, although Birmingham v Hull is on Thursday evening and if the Blues are back in the playoffs by then I’ll attempt a Thursday posting.

FA Cup Fifth Round Preview

It might look like things are beginning to settle in the Championship, but I’d say that the only thing that’s certain is that only Bolton are probably out of the playoffs.  It’s a week until Wanderers are back in court and the seven point gap between the Trotters and safety looks insurmountable now, it could get a lot worse by this time next week. I’d also mention that if Cardiff want to return to the Premier League Russell Slade needs to get working on that ASAP but with seven of their remaining games against the teams immediately above them, this looks a difficult task and there have been signs of disatisfaction at the City of Cardiff Stadium: Derby – who I’ll return to in a moment – may also be playing in the Championship next season.

I knew if I went away I’d miss something and once again that turned out to be the case. Three clubs made decisions about their managerial futures but with apologies to new Bristol City boss Lee Johnson and former Rotherham manager Neil Redfearn, the big surprise was that Paul Clement was given the push at Derby after less than a season and having only lost seven of his 33 games in charge of the Rams. Derby’s last win was on Boxing Day – the victory over Fulham took them to the top of the table – but since then they’ve lost four of their last eight games and have regressed to the point where they are no better than they were last season. Even so, Clement’s dismissal was a head scratcher, especially when you consider that the pre-season noises appeared to be that promotion wasn’t a priority, but chief executive Sam Rush said last week ‘Our focus is to get the team back on track, delivering the style of football and performance we know they are capable of.’ An odd assertion, considering that since being relegated from the Premier League in 2008, on average Derby have been a middle of the table team with only two top six finishes in the last seven seasons. If – and ‘when’ is beginning to look more appropriate – Burton are promoted from League One then perhaps Nigel Clough can remind the powers that be at Derby about the ‘Derby Way’.

Anyway, there are still four Championship clubs left in the FA Cup, all of whom face Premier League opposition and all of them apart from Reading were in action earlier in the week. The first three games are all on Saturday and are all televised – even if WBA and Leeds will only be shown live in the Republic Of Ireland.

TOMORROW

Arsenal v Hull (12:45pm, BT Sport 2)

Third meeting in the competition since the turn of this century and Arsenal – who are favourites to win the competition – have won both meetings at the Emirates. The Tigers haven’t beaten Arsenal in London since September 2008 and it would be a major shock if City won on Saturday even though they’ve done well in the competition in recent seasons: between 1990 and 2008 they didn’t get past the Third Round. It’s worth remembering that Steve Bruce’s side have a nasty looking run in and any further involvement in the Cup would have an adverse impact on that: it’ll be interesting to see what Arsene Wenger thinks if Arsenal have to make midweek trip to the KC Stadium if the game finishes all square.

Reading v WBA (3:00pm, Setanta Sports 1)

Four meetings in the  competition since 2000 and WBA have yet to travel to the Mad House and win – it’s over 20 years since the Baggies won at Reading in any competition. Could be one of the surprises of the round, especially as West Brom have twice been taken to replay by teams outside the Premier League so far and – according to the bookies – are the Premier League side least likely to win the Cup. The Royals have reached the Fifth Round or better in four of the last six seasons, including their unfortunate loss in the semi finals last year.

Watford v Leeds (3:00pm, Setanta Ireland)

First ever meeting in the FA Cup. Leeds haven’t won at Watford in the league since May 2013 and haven’t got past this stage of the competition since 2003 so this looks like one way traffic – although Watford’s FA Cup record since reaching the semi finals in 2007 is nothing to write home about.

SUNDAY

Blackburn v West Ham (2:00pm Sunday, BT Sport 2)

Plenty of FA Cup history between these two and although Blackburn have only lost at home to Hammers in the Cup once (60 years ago), Rovers haven’t beaten West Ham in the competition for half a century and their last league win against West Ham was over a decade ago. Best outlook for Blackburn is a draw: it’s almost a decade since they reached the semi finals even though Rovers have been regulars in the latter stages of the competition since then.

I’ll update this post over the weekend but I’ll be back on Tuesday with a look at the evening games as well as the outcome of Bolton’s day in court.

Update: I’m not sure which was the bigger surprise: Hull holding Arsenal to a draw or Reading beating WBA. I’m going to go with the former. The departures of Leeds and Blackburn were on the cards anyway, but Rovers could be in big trouble this time next year if their current decline continues.